ارتباط الگوهای همدید بارش موثر با تاریخ کشت و عملکرد گندم دیم در کرمانشاه

این پژوهش با هدف مطالعه ارتباط الگوهای همدید اولین بارش موثر در زمان کاشت (اولین بارش با مجموع حداقل 5 میلی‏متر طی 24 یا 48 ساعت) و عملکرد گندم دیم در کرمانشاه انجام شده است. در این مطالعه، از تاریخ‏های مراحل نمو گندم دیم رقم آذر 2 و داده‏های بارش ایستگاه تحقیقات هواشناسی کشاورزی سرارود از سال زراعی 13841383 تا 13951394 استفاده شده است. با استفاده از داده‏های ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل، باد، و رطوبت تراز 850 و 500 هکتوپاسکال اخذشده از داده‏های واکاوی ncep/ncar، الگوهای همدید بارش‏های موثر شناسایی شد. نتایج نشان داد که تاریخ مناسب کشت گندم دیم در کرمانشاه در بازه زمانی 3 تا 14 آبان است. همچنین، الگوهای همدید بارش‏های با آستانه بیش از 5 میلی‏متر در دوره مطالعاتی شامل ناوه فرعی، ناوه مدیترانه، بندال امگا، و کم‏ارتفاع بریده بوده‏اند. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که کمترین عملکرد محصول نسبت به میانگین بلندمدت (2113 کیلوگرم در هکتار) در سال‏هایی رخ داده است که الگوی همدید بارشی نوع 4 وجود داشته است. از طرف دیگر، بیشترین عملکرد گندم دیم در سال‏هایی رخ داده که الگوهای بارشی 2 و 3 با یکدیگر اتفاق افتاده است.

The Relationship of Synoptic Patterns of Effective Precipitation with Planting Date and Yield of Rainfed Wheat in Kermanshah

Introduction Understanding of climate parameters and their effects on crop growth is one of the most important agricultural issues. The purpose of this recognition is to increase crop yield and thereby increase production. The position of Iran and its natural geographic features have led to a variety of climate and seasonal variations. These variations in each season has created different conditions for agricultural products. Among the climatic elements, the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall and temperature fluctuations in different stages of crop growth have the greatest impact on the yield of agricultural products, especially rainfed wheat cultivation. In the growth stages of each crop, especially in rainfed agriculture, the planting date and the first effective rainfall are an important environmentalmanagerial factor in production. The main goal of current study was to investigate the relationship of synoptic patterns of effective precipitation with planting date and yield of rainfed wheat in Kermanshah County. Materials and Methods In this study, data from growth stages (phenology) of wheat, Azar2 variety, and precipitation of the agrometeorological research station of Sararood, Kermanshah were used from 20042005 to 200152016. In the next step, the data of geopotential heights, wind speed and direction and specific humidity from 850 and 500 hPa levels were taken from NCEP / NCAR reanalysis dataset. The planting date of rainfed wheat has been calculated based on 2 methods. In the first method, the starting dates for the first effective rainfall were determined. Accordingly, the date of cultivation was when the total precipitation of 5 mm within one or two consecutive days occurred and after that, the precipitation occurred by 10 days. The second method was to determine the planting date on the basis of climatic data of sowing and germination dates recorded in Sararood agrometeorological research station during the years of study. The effective rainfall was defined as 5 mm rain to wet 5 cm of soil depth for a soil with loamy. Moreover, the staring date of sowing wheat was calculated according to Weibull formula with a 75percent probability of success. In the following, taking into account the first days of precipitation and based on the number of rainy days, the synoptic patterns of the occurrence of effective rainfall have been derived using a correlationbased method. Results and Discussion According to the results, suitable dates for Rainfed wheat cultivation in Kermanshah Province were from Aban 3(October 25) to Aban 15 (November 5). In this research, by determining the threshold of correlation coefficient (0.57), 4 general synoptic patterns were found. The features of each pattern were as follows: pattern 1 had the highest share in severe rainfall. This pattern in the pregermination stage (sowing) had the highest frequency in the occurrence of effective rainfall of 5 mm and more. Pattern 2 was in contrast with Pattern 1, and it was most frequent occurrence in rainfall. Patterns 3 and 4 had characteristics such as limited rainy days and extreme daily rainfall. In addition, synoptic patterns of effective precipitation more than 5 mm were minor trough, Mediterranean trough, Omega Block and cutoff low. The results of synoptic studies of atmospheric patterns also showed that the northern seas of Indian Ocean (Red and Arabian Seas) are the main sources of moisture for all synoptic patterns. Conclusion The main goal of current study was to investigate the relationship of synoptic patterns of effective precipitation with planting date and yield of rainfed wheat in Kermanshah County. The effective precipitation from synoptic patterns 2, 3 and 4 provided conducive conditions for germination of plant in the next priority after the first pattern. The results indicated that the lowest wheat yield as compared to average yield (2113 kilograms per hectare) occurred in the years with the forth precipitation pattern. On the other hand, the highest wheat yield observed when the synoptic patterns of 2nd and 3rd were occurred simultaneously within a year. For example, the years of 20062007, 20142015 and 20152016 had wheat yield of 2888, 2486 and 2700 kilograms per hectare, respectively. Moreover, the effect of synoptic patterns on planting date showed that the commencement of first effective rainfall with patterns 1, 2, 3 and 4 delayed germination stage with an average of 4, 10, 3 and 5 days, respectively. In conclusion, it should be noted that to take more precise results, it is reasonable to work with long period data.