شبیه‌سازی رشد شهری با استفاده از مدل ltm و مدل‌سازی توان اکولوژیک به‌منظور سنجش تناسب اراضی برای توسعه شهری با روش wlc در چشم‌انداز سال 1425، مطالعه موردی: شهر اصفهان

درک دقیق الگوهای گسترش شهری با استفاده از مدل‌های رشد شهری به مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی شهری کارآمد کمک می‌کند. هدف پژوهش حاضر، مدل‌سازی رشد بهینه شهری اصفهان با ارائه سناریوی وضع مطلوب توسعه فضایی-کالبدی آن است. محدوده موردمطالعه، پهنه محدوده و حریم شهر اصفهان به مساحت 55218 هکتار می‌باشد. نوع تحقیق بر مبنای هدف، «کاربردی» و از نظر ماهیت، روش و نحوه گردآوری اطلاعات، ترکیبی از روش‌های «تاریخی، موردی، پیمایشی، پس رویدادی و عمل‌نگر» است. با استفاده از طبقه‌بندی تصاویر ماهواره‌ای سنجنده tm لندست مربوط به سال‌های 1365، 1377 و 1395 روند پراکنش شهری و تغییرات کاربری اراضی و عوامل موثر بر توسعه فضایی-کالبدی شهر طی دوره 30 ساله بررسی‌شده است. سپس برای پیش‌بینی توسعه شهری اصفهان با استفاده از مدل ltm توسعه آینده برای سال 1425 موردبررسی، شبیه‌سازی و ارزیابی قرارگرفته است. بر اساس الگوی احتمالی مدل ltm، تغییرات کاربری اراضی در قالب «سناریوی روند» در طی سه دهه آتی (1425-1395) پیش‌بینی گردیده است. برای دستیابی به «سناریوی مطلوب»، مدل‌سازی پهنه‌بندی توان اکولوژیک توسعه شهری برای سال 1425 با استفاده از روش wlc ارائه‌شده است. نتایج حاصل از تغییرات کاربری اراضی طی دوره 1395-1365 نشان‌دهنده افزایش 178 درصدی اراضی ساخته‌شده و کاهش اراضی کشاورزی (13-%)، پوشش درختی (75-%) و مراتع (28-%) می‌باشد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از روش‌های پیش‌بینی توسعه آینده شهر اصفهان برای سال 1425 با مدل ltm نشان‌دهنده گسترش فضایی در سال‌های آتی به‌صورت اسپرال و تبدیل کاربری‌های دیگر به زمین‌های ساخته‌شده است؛ تا حدی که در سال افق، مساحت نواحی ساخته‌شده شهر با افزایش 33 درصد (5918 هکتار) از 17863 هکتار در سال 1395 به 23781 هکتار در سال 1425 خواهد رسید. نتایج مدل‌سازی پهنه‌بندی توان اکولوژیک توسعه شهری اصفهان به‌منظور شناسایی و سنجش تناسب اراضی برای توسعه در سال 1425 با استفاده از روش wlc نیز بیانگر این است که مجموع مساحت مناطق دارای تناسب‌های بالا و متوسط برای توسعه شهری 5712 هکتار است.

simulating urban growth via ltm and modeling ecological capacity to measure land suitability for urban development using wlc in 2046: the case study of isfahan

abstracta precise understanding of urban expansion patterns using urban growth models contributes to efficient urban management and planning. the present study aims to model the optimal urban growth of isfahan by presenting the optimal scenario of its physical-spatial development. the study area covers isfahan city with an area of 55218 hectares. the “applied” study employed a combined data collection method via historical, case study, survey research, post-hoc, and action research methods. using the classification of landsat tm satellite imagery related to the years 1986, 1998, and 2016, the trend of urban distribution and land-use changes and factors affecting the spatial-physical development of the city during 30 years were investigated. then, to predict isfahan urban development using ltm, the future growth for 2046 was examined, simulated, and evaluated. land use changes were predicted as a trend scenario during the next three decades (2016-2046) based on the proposed ltm model. to achieve the optimal scenario, modeling the ecological power zoning of urban development for 2046 using wlc was presented. the results of land use changes during the period 1986-2016 show a 178% increase in built-up lands and a decrease in agricultural (-13%), tree-covered (-75%), and pasture land uses (-28%). the results obtained from the methods of forecasting the future development of isfahan for 2046 with the ltm model demonstrate the spatial expansion in the coming years as a spiral and the conversion of other uses into built-up areas to the extent that in the year of the horizon, the area of the built-up areas of the city increases 33% (5918 hectares) will reach 23781 hectares in 2046 from 17863 hectares in 2016. the zoning results modeling the ecological potential of isfahan urban development to identify and measure land suitability of development in 2046 via wlc also indicate that the total area of lands with high and medium suitability for urban development covers 5712 hectares.extended abstractintroductionthe present study aims to present an analytical framework for the effect of urban sprawl on land use changes in isfahan city, to predict the trend of land development and land use developments until 2046, and finally, to find a suitable and scientific framework to identify suitable places for the development of human settlements. the first goal is to determine the spatial-physical development process of isfahan city and its effect on agricultural, tree-covered, pasture, and water surface land uses. the second goal is to use ltm to predict land use developments in the next three decades (2046). the third goal is to identify and measure land suitability for isfahan development in 2046 by modeling urban development’s ecological potential zoning using wlc. the questions answered in this research are: 1- what is the spatial-physical development pattern of isfahan city, and what effect has it had on its expansion? 2- based on the “trend” and “optimal situation” scenarios, what will be the modeling of land use changes and growth and spatial-physical development of isfahan city in 2046? methodologythe applied study employed a combination of “documentary, descriptive, analytical, causal, and survey research” methods due to the dependence of the dependent variable of isfahan urban growth on the independent variables effective in isfahan development. data analysis methods were four methods proposed by tsai (agglomeration grade, equal distribution grade, density, and metropolis size), ltm, and wlc. results and discussionisfahan’s physical growth and land use changes were simulated using ltm. first, land use maps of the city were prepared, and changes in land uses and urban growth areas were examined during the 30 years from 1986 to 2016. ltm was employed to train, test, simulate, and predict the possible development of the city on the horizon of 2046; on this basis, the “trend scenario” was compiled. the results of the ltm model show a decrease in the extent of wastelands, agricultural land uses, pastures, and tree-covered land uses. in contrast, it offers an increase in residential areas. the area of built land will increase to 23,781 hectares in this period, which will increase by 5,918 hectares (33%) compared to the base year (2016), with an area of 17,863 hectares. to formulate the “optimal situation scenario”, wlc was used to model the ecological capacity of urban development to identify suitable lands for the development of isfahan city in 2046. the wlc results method indicate that suitable lands for isfahan’s future development are mainly located on the city westerly, northwesterly, northerly, easterly, and northeasterly. conclusionthe research results can be employed as a model for choosing suitable areas for urban development. therefore, via the proper methods, it is possible to prevent urban growth and development in the direction of inappropriate areas. fundingthere is no funding support. authors’ contributionauthors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. all of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. conflict of interestauthors declared no conflict of interest. acknowledgments we are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.