تحلیل رابطه‌ سطح انتظارات از دولت و تمایل جوامع محلی به اقدامات پیشگیرانه در برابر مخاطرات (مطالعه‌ موردی: نواحی روستایی شهرستان نیشابور)

امروزه، تاکید بر مدیریت ریسک و اجرای اقدامات پیشگیرانه به ‏عنوان اساسی ‏ترین رویکرد در ادبیات مدیریت بحران مطرح است. اما تحقق این فرایند، به‏ویژه در جوامع روستایی و با جلب مشارکت جوامع محلی به انجام‏دادن اقدامات پیشگیرانه تحت ‏الشعاع عوامل و موانع بسیاری است که سطح انتظارات جوامع محلی از دولت و وابستگی به آن برای مدیریت بحران و اثرهای آن یکی از مهم‏ترین این عوامل است. بنابراین، در پژوهش حاضر به تحلیل تاثیر انتظارات از دولت بر میزان تمایل جوامع محلی به مشارکت در انجام‏دادن اقدامات پیشگیرانه در برابر سوانح طبیعی با روش توصیفی- پیمایشی و با ابزار پرسش‏نامه پرداخته شده ‏است. به ‏منظور سنجش هدف و تحلیل داده ‏ها، از آزمون‏ های تی تک ‏نمونه ‏ای، همبستگی پیرسون، آزمون رگرسیون خطی، و آزمون تحلیل واریانس یک ‏طرفه استفاده شده ‏است. پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ ماهیت کاربردی و از لحاظ نوع تحقیقات توصیفی- تحلیلی است. بر اساس نتایج به‏ دست‏ آمده، در منطقه‌ مورد مطالعه میزان تمایل روستاییان به اقدامات پیشگیرانه پایین ‏تر از سطح متوسط است. در حالی که سطح انتظارات مردم از دولت در برابر سوانح طبیعی بسیار بالاست. همچنین، ضمن تایید ارتباط بین این دو متغیر، تاثیرگذاری متغیر انتظارات روستاییان از دولت بر عدم تمایل جوامع محلی به اقدامات پیشگیرانه در برابر سوانح طبیعی با میزان ضریب 38 درصد تبیین و تایید می‏شود. از سویی، بر اساس نتایج به‏دست‏آمده، تمایل به اقدامات پیشگیرانه در بین روستاییانی که واکنش ترجیحی آن‏ها در برابر سوانح بر اساس مستندات و آرشیو تجربه‌ آن‏هاست بیشتر از سایر روستاییان است.

analyzing the impact of expectations from government on the willingness to take precautionary measures against natural hazards (case study: rural of neyshabur county)

introduction: as a whole, the world is experiencing an increase in the intensity and abundance of natural hazards, which it is a major threat to all regions. basically, natural hazards can be recognized as a potential hazard because of the combination of disasters, vulnerability conditions and inadequate measures to mitigate the negative consequences. in fact, the natural hazard is an unexpected event that disrupts the normal functioning of a society and generally leading to loss of life, livelihoods and damage to the infrastructure of communities. therefore, take preventive measures and preparedness for these events can greatly reduce costs. for this reason, emphasis on risk management and to take preventive measures today is one of the most fundamental approaches in the crisis management literature. but the realization of this process, especially in rural communities and the attract of local communities to take precautionary measures, is overshadowed by many factors and obstacles, that the level of local communities’ expectations of the government for crisis management and its effects is one of the most important. in communities where the government participates in all levels of risk planning and accountability and the local government has the primary responsibility for emergency response to the hazard, most people believe that &the government must take responsibility of coping with the problems due the risks&. likewise, they expect the government to be prepared and responsive to natural hazards. there is widespread agreement among economists that expectations influence people’s behavior and actions. so that even if residents are aware of the environmental risk, they may believe that government planning and preparation is sufficient for risk management. so they do not feel the need to take home preparedness measures.methodology: the present study analyzes the impact of expectations from the government on the extent of local community interest to take precautionary measures against natural hazards. a descriptive - survey method and a questionnaire were used for this purpose. in this study, the level of analysis is rural and its unit of analysis are rural households. fazl has been selected as the study area, which is one of the districts of neyshabur county in khorasan razavi province. at first, 15 villages were selected for field study through formula n0 and then, sample villages were selected based on the location of the villages in the hazardous areas. research indicators and variables have been compiled according to the theoretical foundations and review of previous studies. variable of expectations level of local communities about intervention and the role of government in the risk process have been measured the following two types of structural and non-structural approaches and variable of propensity to take preventive measures by local communities have been measured the following economic, social, skill-individual and physical-environmental dimensions. one-sample t-test, pearson correlation, linear regression test, and one-way anova were used to measure the purpose and data analysis. the present study has applied nature and is a descriptive-analytical research.