عوامل موثر بر استمرار کولبری در روستاهای مرزی پاوه با رویکرد سناریونگاری

مناطق مرزی جزو مناطق حساس و شکننده هر کشوری محسوب می‏ شوند که به دلیل شرایط منحصربه ‏فردی همچون دوری از مرکز و انزواگرایی با معضلاتی از جمله بیکاری و عدم اشتغال و عدم دسترسی به تامین نیازهای اولیه روبه رو هستند. معضلات مرتبط با اقتصاد سبب شده است تا در مناطق غربی کشور، به‏ویژه در روستاهای مرزی پاوه، وضعیتی پدید آید که بخش زیادی از مردم در این منطقه برای برطرف‏کردن نیازهای اصلی زندگی خود به شغل کولبری روی ‏آورند. هدف از این مقاله بررسی عوامل موثر بر استمرار کولبری در روستاهای مرزی پاوه است که با روش توصیفی‏ تحلیلی و بهره‏گیری از روش سناریونویسی به این موضوع پرداخته شده است. نتایج به‏دست‏آمده از نرم‏افزار سناریو ویزارد نشان می‏دهد که از این 45 وضعیت احتمالی، 26.6 درصد وضعیت بحرانی، 17.8 درصد در آستانه بحران، 26.6 درصد وضعیت ایستا، 13.4 درصد وضعیت نیمه‏مطلوب، و 15.6 درصد نیز وضعیت مطلوب دارند. درمجموع، 29 درصد وضعیت مطلوب و 44.4 درصد نیز وضعیت نامطلوب داشته‏اند. از 14 سناریوی محتمل، سناریوهای 1 و 2 دارای وضعیت مطلوب و سناریوهای 5، 6، 7، 12، 13، و 14 دارای وضعیت نامطلوب بوده‏‏اند. سناریوهای 11، 10، 9، 8، 4، و 3 نیز دارای وضعیت بینابینی بوده‏اند و از ترکیب حالت‏های مختلف به‏وجود آمده‏اند. در نهایت، می‏توان بیان کرد که شرایط برای استمرار کولبری در منطقه بحرانی محسوب می‏‏شود و این امر نیازمند تدوین سیاست‏های مناسب با موقعیت منطقه برای بهبود شرایط معیشتی و زندگی ساکنان نواحی مرزی است.

Parameters affecting the stability of the Colberry phenomenon in the border village of Paveh

Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptiveanalytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury’s future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury’s economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semioptimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptiveanalytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury’s future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury’s economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semioptimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptiveanalytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury’s future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury’s economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semioptimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptiveanalytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related