تحلیل آسیب‌پذیری کاربری اراضی شهری جوانرود در برابر زلزله با استفاده از تحلیل شبکه ‏ای (anp) و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (gis)

مخاطرات طبیعی و انسانی همواره تهدیدی برای زندگی انسان‏هاست. در دهه‏های اخیر،به‏‏‏رغم پیشرفت‏های علمی در پیش‏بینی حوادث و مدیریت بحران، بلایای طبیعی همچنان هزینه‏های سنگینی به جوامع انسانی وارد می‏سازند. از آنجا که ایران در میان ده کشور بلاخیز جهان قرار دارد و از میان بلایای طبیعی زمین‏لرزه در ایران، بنا به ماهیت خاص خود، از اهمیت و توجه بیشتری برخوردار است‏زیرا نسبت به سایر بلایای طبیعی دیگر فراوانی آن بیشتر است‏ تلفات و صدمات فراوانی نیز به همراه دارد. شهر جوانرود از شرایط ویژه‏ای در رابطه با مخاطراتی همانند زلزله برخوردار است. در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از روش تحلیل شبکه‏ای (anp) و با بهره‏گیری از نرم‏افزارهای  super  decisionو arc gis و با استفاده از داده‏های مربوط به کاربری اراضی شهر جوانرود، dem 30×30 متری و نقشه زمین‏شناسی 1:100000 پس از تبیین اصول، اهداف نقشه‏های آسیب‏پذیری مورد نیاز برای مشخص‏کردن پهنه‏های خطر به‏دست آمد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که حدود 0.20 از فضاهای ساخته‏شده شهری جوانرود در برابر این نوع از مخاطرات آسیب‏پذیری متوسط به بالایی دارد و ساختار کالبدی مطلوبی در چارچوب بحث مدیریت زلزله ارائه نمی‏کند؛ محلات حاشیه‏نشین در پهنه آسیب‏پذیری بالا و نیز مسکن مهرهای شهر به علت قرارگرفتن در حاشیه مرتفع شهر و سنگ بستر نامناسب و ارتفاع و شیب زیاد و تعداد طبقات بیشتر نسبت به سایر واحدها دارای آسیب‏پذیری بیشتری می‏باشند. فضای مسکونی و کاربری اراضی جوانرود نشان می‏دهد، درصورت بی‏توجهی و برنامه‏ریزی نامناسب، رویکرد مقابله با زلزله می‏تواند به فاجعه انسانی و مصیبتی بزرگ منتهی شود.

Analysis of the Vulnerability of Javanrood Urban Land Using with a Passive Defense Against the Earthquake

Analysis of Javanrud Urban Land Use Vulnerability to Earthquake Using Network Analysis (ANP) and Geographic Information System (GIS)Extended AbstractNatural and human memories are always a threat to human life. In recent decades, despite scientific advances and prediction of disasters and crisis management, natural disasters continue to cost significant costs to human societies. Where Iran is among the 10 most blasphemous countries in the world and among the natural disasters of earthquake in Iran, It is of particular importance to its attention, Because of its many other natural disasters, it also has many casualties and injuries.Javanrood city located in western Iran, It has a unique position and special conditions for earthquake hazards. In the present study using ANP and Super Decision and ARC GIS softwares using Javanrood land use data, 30 * 30 m DEM and ground map Geology 1: 100,000 After explaining the principles, the objectives of the vulnerability maps needed to identify the danger zones were achieved. The results indicate that about 20% of Javanrood urban areas are moderately vulnerable to this type of hazard and do not provide a good physical structure within the context of earthquake management; The seals of the city are more vulnerable due to being located on the high margins of the city and inadequate bedrock, high elevation and slope and more floors than other units.methodology Material: In this research, using ANP and using super decision software and ARC GIS software, using Land area data, 30 * 30 meters DEM and geology map 1: 100,000, After explaining the principles, objectives and considerations of inactive defense and analysis of the passive defense approach in urban areas, the vulnerability maps needed to identify risk areas were identified and, finally, strategies for inertial defense measures related to urban management Provided.Methods: Network analysis process (ANP), method used in this research is one of the multivariate decisionmaking techniques Which is very similar to the AHP method and in a better way, this is The expanded form of the hierarchical analysis process. This was proposed by Thomas El Saaty in 1996, Also this process, new theory is that the network structure of the successor to the hierarchical structure has been. This method takes into account the complex relationship between decision elements through the replacement of a hierarchical structure with a network structure. For this reason, in recent years, the use of ANP has increased in most areas. The network analysis method consists of 4 steps.Step One: Modeling and Explaining the ProblemStep Two: Matrix Pair Comparison Matrix and Estimate Relative WeightStage Three: Formation of Primary SupermatrixStage Four: Formation of Weight SupermatrixStep 5: The weighted supermatrix is large enough for the matrix elements to converge and their row values to be equal.Step 6: Calculate the final weight of the criteriaResults and discusssion The research results show that Javanrood city can be divided into three old, new and marginal areas. In the central part of the city, due to the ancient texture of the city Also, the vast majority of administrative, commercial and service centers in these regions have been of special importance since the last periods. In general, the longer the life of the building, the greater the wear resistance of the materials as well as the use of low materials in the past, the resistance of the buildings to the earthquake is reduced and the level of vulnerability will be higher. Relief centers and health centers are among the most important urban services in the event of accidents for citizens and residents of the city. As the distance from these centers increases, timely relief to citizens is reduced, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability. Existence of open spaces and green spaces in the city’s neighborhoods, In addition to affecting the ability to escape and shelter residents and reduce the number of injuries, it can also be temporary accommodation centers. So, both during and after the earthquake, it is effective in reducing damage. Slope as one of the factors affecting the vulnerability of residential buildings and urban facilities to natural factors such as earthquakes, As the slope increases, the vulnerability to earthquakes increases and vice versa. The bedrock type is the most important environmental factor in the earthquake waves are affected by moving away and passing alluvial layers. The bedrock factors are known as the effect of the site. effects of the site as a resonance of earthquake waves, changes in the characteristics of seismic waves such as amplitude, Frequency and durability of the strong movement.ConclusionIn general, the longer the building life, the more the building will be resistant to earthquakes and the greater the vulnerability due to the increased material burnout and use of past durable materials. Also, the buildings have moderate vulnerability in the suburbs, which has the most statistics and high vulnerability buildings are mainly related to the housing of the city’s seals, due to their higher margins and height and the number of bedrock and more floors. Finally about 20 percent of the builtup spaces of Javanrud city have a moderate to high vulnerability to these types of hazards does not provide a desirable body structure within the framework of the earthquake management discussion. Marginal neighborhoods in the area of high vulnerability, as well as seals of the city, are more vulnerable due to the high elevation of the city and the inappropriate bedrock and the height and slope and the number of floors more than other units. The residential space and land use of this city are represented and presented in a way that can lead to a great human catastrophe and disaster in case of lack of attention and proper planning with the approach to earthquake control. Therefore, it is imperative that the city’s management and institutions take action plans and measures to reduce the vulnerability of these areas by looking at passive defense.Key words:, ANP, Vulnerability, Javanrood, Earthquakes, GIS