تعیین راهبردهای هیدروپلیتیکی ایران در حوضه آبریز اروند

ضعف در مدیریت صحیح منابع آبی به‏خصوص در حوضه‏های آبی مشترک بین‏المللی، نداشتن دیپلماسی آبی کارآمد، و شیوه نامناسب بهره‏برداری از منابع آبی بین‏المللی در قرن 21 به کمبود شدید و افزایش روزافزون نقش و اهمیت آب و منابع آبی در روند زندگی ملت‏ها به‏خصوص در منطقه خاورمیانه منجر شده و می‏تواند زمینه‏ساز بحران‏های فراگیر منطقه‏ای شود. از جمله حوضه‏های آبی مشترک در منطقه خاورمیانه حوضه اروندرود است که از حساسیت و جایگاه خاص بنا بر موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی حاکم برخوردار است؛ در دوره‏های مختلف تاریخی روابط دو کشور همسایه ایران و عراق متاثر از نحوه بهره‏برداری و مالکیت این حوضه آبی بوده است. بنابراین، لزوم اتخاذ استراتژی مناسب در روابط دیپلماتیک ایران با عراق بر سر نحوه مدیریت و بهره‏برداری این حوضه آبی مشترک بسیار مهم است. در همین راستا، در تحقیق پیش‏رو، با استفاده از نظر خبرگان، به شناسایی عوامل محیطی تاثیرگذار در هیدروپلیتیک اروندرود اقدام شد و با استفاده از تحلیل ماتریس swotمشخص شد راهبرد هیدروپلیتیکی ایران در حوضه اروند تهاجمی است و در ادامه اولویت‏بندی راهبردهای احصاشده حاصل آرای خبرگی با استفاده از تحلیل سلسله‏مراتبی ahpانجام گرفت و «تاکید به دولت‏مردان جهت توجه ویژه و اختصاص بودجه مناسب در راستای ارتقا و توسعه صنایع وابسته، تجهیزات زیربنایی و استراتژیک اقتصادی، هسته‏ای، و نظامی کشور با استفاده از ظرفیت‏ها و توان علمی و فنی و دانشگاهی درون کشور در راستای دست‏یابی به توازن و برتری نسبی نسبت به عراق» با کسب وزن (0.412) اولویت‏دارترین و موثرترین راهبرد انتخاب شد.

Determining Iran hydropolitics strategies in Arvandrood basin

Extended Abstract :The weakness in efficient management of water resources , especially in common international watersheds , lack of efficient water diplomacy , inappropriate use of international water resources in 21st century – which due to severe shortage , we witness a growing increase in role and importance of water and water resources in the process of nations living especially in Middle East region , can underlie the development of inclusive regional crises . One of common water basins is the Arvandrood , which has a special criticality and position according to current geopolitical status . It is necessary to adopt a suitable strategy in diplomatic relations between Iran and Iraq on how to manage and operate this common water basin. In the following research , using experts opinions , we collected influential environmental factors in the Arvandrood hydropolitics and with application of SWOT Matrix analysis , it is determined that at the current situation the country’s strategy toward the Arvandrood hydropolitics against Iraq should be aggressive ; and then we prioritized strategies obtained from expert opinions with application of Analytic Hierarchy Process ( AHP ) . “ Emphasizing the governors for special attention and allocating appropriate funds in order to promote and develop relative strategic and infrastructural economic , nuclear and military equipment and industries with application of inland scientific and academic potentials and capacities in order to reach balance and relative superiority against Iraq ” has been selected as the most preference and effective strategy gaining a weight of ( 0.412 ) .Introduction :Arvandrood as a joint border river between Iran and Iraq in different time and historical periods , especially in recent years due to the specific geopolitical situation of Iraq has caused the conflict of two countries over the ownership and exploitation of the river . Sometimes these conflicts has led to the formation of military conflict and war . The last example for this situation was an imposing eight year war that has caused a great deal of human , structural and economic casualties , especially for Iran . In the future , this shared watershed could also pave the way for divergence and redisputation , especially from the Iraqi government , given its limited access to easy access to Persian Gulf waters . One of common water basins is the Arvandrood , which has a special criticality and position according to current geopolitical status . It is necessary to adopt a suitable strategy in diplomatic relations between Iran and Iraq on how to manage and operate this common water basin .Therefore , in the current research , in order to answer the question , what is the most important and effective Iranian strategy towards Arvandrood hydropolitics? While trying to determine the strategy of our country , we present effective strategies for the hydropolitics of Arvandrood and in the continue to prioritize the strategies ahead.Methodology :The type of this research in terms of purpose is functional , and in terms of research method is a combination of descriptive analytical methods and the use of survey methods is interview with experts and questionnaires . In the current study 14 knowledgeable experts in the field of research are used to identify the internal ( IFE ) and external ( EFE ) factors affecting the Arvandrood hydropolitic and to analyze the data , we use the analysis of strengths , weaknesses, opportunities , and threats matrix ( SWOT ) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process ( AHP ) .Results and Discussion :With application of analysis of SWOT Matrix , it is determined that at the current situation the country’s strategy toward the Arvandrood hydropolitic against Iraq should be aggressive ; and then we prioritized declared strategies from expert opinions by using of Analytical Hierarchy Process ( AHP ) . “ Emphasizing the governors for special attention and allocating appropriate funds in order to promote and develop relative strategic and infrastructural economic , nuclear and military equipment and industries with application of inland scientific and academic potentials and capacities in order to reach balance and relative superiority against Iraq ” has been selected as the most preference and effective strategy gaining a weight of ( 0.412 ( . and in the Finally , the strategies obtained were prioritized based on expert opinion and weight .Conclusion :Regarding the Arvand water basin , government officials should pay special attention and allocate appropriate funds to promote and develop relative strategic and infrastructural economic , nuclear and military equipment and industries using the country’s scientific , technical , and academic capacities and capabilities by achieving relative balance and superiority over Iraq by providing diplomacy and consulting to provide motivation and interest in the Iraqi government to participate in the management and operation of the Arvandrood joint watershed .In the next step , the diplomacy and foreign policy apparatus of the country would have to formulate a special working group and conduct regular negotiations with the Iraqi and Turkish governments to consider the solutions in order to maximize the use of water basin as much as possible . Consulting and cooperating with Turkey as an influential country in supplying water to Arvandrood in view of its large dam projects, through formal and legal agreement to review extensive dam projects and water supply to the Arvandrood River .Therefore the cooperation of the three countries Iran , Iraq and Turkey on how to use Arvand correctly It will bring peace and stability to the region , And it will prevent any conflict between Iran and Iraq in the future .Key words :Hydropolitic , Arvandrood , Strategy , Water Diplomacy , Frontier River .