تحلیل فضایی پایداری سکونتگاه های روستایی (مطالعه موردی: استان قم)

ساده‏ترین شکل مطالعه در عرصه توسعه پایدار روستایی، از دیدگاه جغرافیایی، مطالعه نحوه توزیع فضایی آن‏هاست. بر این اساس، هدف از پژوهش حاضر، سنجش سطوح فضایی پایداری سکونتگاه‏های روستایی واقع در استان قم است. پژوهش حاضر براساس هدف کاربردی و روش پژوهش توصیفی‏– تحلیلی است. داده‏های مورد نیاز به روش اسنادی به‏دست آمده است. محدوده مورد مطالعه استان قم و جامعه آماری پژوهش روستاهای دارای سکنه استان قم هستند. وزن‏دهی به شاخص‏های پژوهش با استفاده از مدل f’anp و تحلیل داده‏ها با استفاده از روش تصمیم‏گیری چندمعیاره vikor انجام شد. برای طبقه‏بندی روستاهای مورد مطالعه از جنبه سطوح پایداری از روش تحلیل خوشه‏ای و نرم‏افزار gis و برای تحلیل عوامل موثر بر پایداری از رگرسیون خطی استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد از 180 روستای مورد مطالعه ده روستا در طبقه پایدار، 18 روستا در طبقه نسبتاً پایدار، 108 روستا در طبقه پایداری پایین، و 46 روستا در طبقه ناپایدار قرار دارند. روستاهای ناپایدار در مناطق مرکزی استان استقرار یافته‏اند. همچنین، نتایج تحقیق حکایت از آن دارد که روستاهای استان در مقایسه با یکدیگر از سطح پایداری پایینی برخوردارند؛ به‏طوری‏که الگوی فضایی آن نامتعادل است و این پایداری به‏طور یکسان در همه شاخص‏های پایداری روستاها اتفاق نیفتاده است. این وضعیت بیانگر پویش ناقص نظام سکونتگاهی استان است. از نظر کاربرد مدل‏ها و تکنیک‏های کمّی، در این پژوهش برای اولین بار از پژوهش f’anp در تعیین سطوح پایداری روستایی استفاده شده و نتایج تحقیق کارایی این مدل را در مطالعات جغرافیایی اثبات کرده است.

spatial analysis of sustainable rural settlementsa case study: qom province

1. introduction the approach of the sustainable development as a framework for the analysis of the sustainability of rural settlements has received high value and credit. here, achieving sustainable development without proper measuring, interpreting and explaining is of no significance. one of the necessary foundation for proper planning is to have knowledge of the capabilities and position of different regions in terms of the level of development and sustainability. having knowledge of changes in sustainable development and knowing its structure, dimensions and spatial expansion in rural areas are considered as critical parameters for appropriate decision making and planning. in this regard, the easiest form of studying in the field of rural sustainable development from the geographical viewpoint is to study the spatial distribution of significant factors. accordingly, the present study is to analyze and measure the spatial levels of rural settlements located in qom province. sustainability assessment has helped define the goals of sustainable development and progress assessment in order to achieve these them and is considered as part of the process of measuring the impact of different aspects of sustainable development. the sustainability assessment is the most significant tool in changing conditions for the sustainable development. the objective of sustainability measurement is to provide a general outline of the sustainability situation at the space level, which can be extended from the range of complete sustainability to the unsustainability, and ultimately provide areas for identifying the factors that contribute to sustainability. regarding sustainability measurement, there are no fixed and definite indicators, and, according to conditions of different countries and time periods, certain indicators have been used to measure sustainability. the modern era of evaluation and measurement of sustainability began in the late 1940s, and with its generalization, net national product (nnp) and gross national product (gnp), gdp were defined as general indicators of sustainability. finally, in 1987 world commission on environment and development (wced) recommended that countries pay attention to the issue of sustainable development on the economic, social and environmental dimensions, simultaneously.3. materials and methods the present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptiveanalytical in terms of the method of research. the statistical population of the study includes inhabited villages of qom province. the required data are obtained by documentary method using data of the census on population and housing, culture of the qom provinces, as well as with the reference to some government agencies and organizations. for weighing the indicators of the research the f’anp model has been utilized; by using the multiple criteria decision making (mcdm) method vikor indicators were integrated and the final indicator of development was determined. determining the spatial pattern of sustainable development was conducted by cluster analysis method using arc gis software; linear regression was utilized to measure the effective factors in the final indicator of development. besides, excel, spss and matlab software were used as analysis tools.4. results and discussionsin this research, the weighing of indicators in the study was conducted using the f’anp model. the final weight of the indicators derived from the f’anp model showed that the percentages of literate population, literacy of men and literacy of women were 7.9, 6.72 and 6.69, respectively. it also shows that the highest weight and dependency ratio, the population growth rate and the percentage of agricultural workers to all employees were 2.85%, 3.8% and 3.16%, respectively, and had the lowest weight among the 23 indicators in the study. after weighing, indicators were combined using vikor technique. finally, according to vikor scores, the villages under the study were ranked in four categories in terms of sustainable development levels by the cluster analysis method using in the gis software. in the first category, the sustainable villages, there are 120 villages, in the second category, fairly sustainable villages, there are 37 villages, in the third category, villages with low sustainability, there are 8 villages and in the fourth category, the unsustainable villages, there are 15 villages. the results of regression analysis also showed that literacy level had the highest effect and income level had the least effect on the sustainability level of villages under the study.5. conclusion the results of this study showed that although the villages of qom province compared to each other enjoy the sustainable level, this sustainability is not integrated. in other words, the sustainability of villages is not the same in all the indicators. this situation reflects the imperfect dynamics of the provincial settlement system in the province. despite that, this province has a special political and religious status in the country. from the spatial aspect, the sustainability level of the province has followed a pattern indicative of (relative) spatial equality. this research also demonstrates the effectiveness of the f’anp model in geographical studies. the present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptiveanalytical in terms of the method of research. the statistical population of the study includes inhabited villages of qom province. for weighing the indicators of the research the f’anp model has been utilized; by using the multiple criteria decision making (mcdm) method vikor indicators were integrated and the final indicator of development was determined. determining the spatial pattern of sustainable development was conducted by cluster analysis method using arc gis software; linear regression was utilized to measure the effective factors in the final indicator of development. besides, excel, spss and matlab software were used as analysis tools. the results of this study showed that although the villages of qom province compared to each other enjoy the sustainable level, this sustainability is not integrated. in other words, the sustainability of villages is not the same in all the indicators. this situation reflects the imperfect dynamics of the provincial settlement system in the province. despite that, this province has a special political and religious status in the country. from the spatial aspect, the sustainability level of the province has followed a pattern indicative of (relative) spatial equality. this research also demonstrates the effectiveness of the f’anp model in geographical studies