تحلیل فضایی شاخص های سالمندی در نواحی شهری و روستایی ایران

یکی از مهم‏ترین موضوعات قرن بیست‏ویکم مسئله سالخوردگی جمعیت و پیامدهای ناشی از آن است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر تحلیل فضایی نماگرهای جمعیتی‏ سالمندان (جمعیت 65 سال و بالاتر) در نواحی شهری و روستایی ایران است. روش مطالعه توصیفی‏ تحلیلی است و براساس هدف کاربردی است. برای جمع‏آورى اطلاعات از روش کتابخانه‏اى و اسنادى استفاده شده است و داده‏هاى خام مقاله براساس داده‏های سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن در سال 1395 است. به‏منظور بررسى ویژگی‏هاى فضایى جمعیت سالمند از شاخص‏های نسبت سالمندی، نسبت وابستگی سالمندی، شاخص سالمندی، و شاخص پیری استفاده شده است. برای تحلیل فضایی شاخص‏ها از روش‏های لکه‏های داغ و خودهمبستگی فضایی موران در محیط نرم‏افزار arc gis استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‏دهد درصد جمعیت سالمند کشور طی دوره 1335 تا 1395 بیش از 1.5 برابر افزایش داشته است و پیش‏بینی می‏شود نسبت جمعیت سالمند به کل جمعیت از 6.1 درصد در سال 1395 به 20.4 درصد در سال 1440 برسد. نتایج حاصل از روش لکه‏های داغ نیز نشان می‏دهد نواحی شمالی و مرکزی کشور دارای مقادیر بالاتری از شاخص‏های سالمندی‏اند و خوشه فضایی داغ را تشکیل داده‏اند. در حالی که نواحی جنوب شرق، جنوب، و جنوب غرب کشور دارای مقادیر پایین‏تری از شاخص سالمندی بوده و خوشه فضایی سرد را تشکیل داده‏اند.

spatial analysis of elderly indices in urban and rural areas of iran

one of the most important issues of the demographic day that has attracted a lot of attention and will intensify during the 21st century is the aging population and the consequences of it. so that many developed countries demographic structure have become aged decades ago, and also some developing countries are on the verge of entering the aging population due to reduced mortality and fertility rates. recent advances in medical and health sciences have dramatically increased the average life span of the community, on the other hand, the implementation of family planning programs and, consequently, the reduction of fertility are two important factors in the occurrence of aging phenomena in societies. along with them, the third factor in population changes, that is, immigration, can also contribute to aggravating or reducing the aging population trend. all of the above has changed the demographic structure. in today’s societies, with an increase in life expectancy, we see a growing population of the elderly; elderly people who like people around them pay attention to them, and their existence for the family and community be important and valuable. so the community at the macro level and the family at microlevel is required to provide the conditions for the elderly to feel selfesteem, and old age not to be just a waiting period for death. the fundamental changes in the structure of individual and social life during old age and the lack of planning for this stage of life, the elderly and the community have faced a more problematic situation that requires a thorough assessment and evaluation. statistical evidence suggests that population aging and its various economic and social effects are one of the most important longterm and nearfuture problems in iran. therefore, considering different aspects of the economy, politicians will empower to adopt different methods and programs to reduce the effects of this phenomenon in different sectors of the economy. considering that a large part of the population of iran is passing from young to middle aged, the policy makers will have the time to implement various policies; of course, these decisions will lead to positive outcomes in the context of which there will be cumulative information on the effects of population aging on various economic variables over the coming decades. elders have their own physiological, psychological and social needs that are due to aging. most of the elderly, despite the confrontation with these limitations, are managing themselves very well and their capabilities are still widespread and, if placed in the right environment, they are able to maximize their capabilities. for better planning for the elderly, they need to be aware of their status on the basis of different indicators and their distribution at the level of urban and rural areas. relevant authorities can better plan to respond to the elderly’s problems by knowing how to distribute the elderly population at different levels. the purpose of this paper is to analyze spatial distribution of demographic indicators of the elderly population (population 65 years and over) in the urban and rural areas of iran based on population census data of 2016. the research method is descriptiveanalytic and it is based on applied purpose. the library and documentary methods have been used to collect information and raw data from the general population and housing census in 2016. the statistical population includes the total population of the elderly (65 years and above) of urban and rural areas of iran. in order to study the spatial characteristics of the elderly population in urban and rural areas of iran, indicators of the ratio of aging, age dependency ratio, aging index and old age index are used. these indexes are calculated in the excel software environment and then they have been transferred into the gis software environment for spatial analysis. for spatial analysis of elderly population indices in the urban and rural areas of iran, hot spots and moran spatial selfcorrelation have been used. finally, spatial distribution of aging indicators in the provinces of the country is also presented. at first, it has been shown that the proportion of the elderly population of the country has increased more than 1.5 times during the period from 1956 to 2016, and it is projected that the proportion of the elderly will reach from about 6 percent in 2016 to more than 20.4 percent in 2061, this will determine the need for planning to respond better to the growing needs of the growing elderly in iran. in this regard, the results of the hot spots method show that the northern and central parts of the country have more hot spots and high values of aging indicators and constitute a hot spatial cluster, while the southeast, south, and southwest regions have more cold spots and lower levels of aging, they form a cold spatial cluster. the results of moran selfcorrelation method in all four indicators of aging indicate that the values of these indices are clustered in the level of urban and rural areas of iran. given that population aging is inevitable, countries must learn how to manage these situations and, as developed countries, may use it to production growth. therefore, in order to deal with the elderly population, the policy should be accompanied by the increase in the number of births and fertility that is currently desirable for policy makers in the country, consideration should be given to issues such as policies to realize population profits, increase labor productivity, reform of retirement rules and flexibility at retirement age and increase the rates of economic participation, in particular the rates of economic participation of women and the elderly. if appropriate policies are implemented, the aging population will not only be scary, it can even open up a knot of community nodes.