تبیین سناریوهای مسکن گروه های آسیب ‏پذیر شهری (مطالعه موردی: کلان‏ شهر تهران)

در این پژوهش با بهره‏گیری از روش سناریونگاری سعی در ترسیم آینده منطقی و باورپذیر(سناریو‏ها) برای مسکن اقشار آسیب‏پذیر شده است تا از این طریق به برنامه‏ریزان کمک کرده باشد راهکارهای بهینه برای حل این مشکل ارائه دهند. بر همین اساس، پس از مرور مبانی نظری، مجموعه پیشران‏های اثرگذار در آینده کلان‏شهر تهران شد و براساس روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع بررسی شد. براساس نتایج تحلیل اثرات متقاطع، چهار پیشران، وضعیت سیاست‏گذاری سرزمین، فقر شهری، درآمد سرانه، و رشد جمعیت جزو پیشران‏های کلیدی بوده‏اند. در این میان، نرخ رشد درآمد سرانه با توجه به اینکه به‏طور مستقیم بر فقر شهری اثرگذاشته و به نوعی نمایانگر آن است در قالب همان فقر شهری بیان شده است. بر این اساس، چارچوبسناریوها را سه عدم قطعیت تشکیل می‏دهد: 1. وضعیت فقر شهری کلان‏شهر تهران؛ 2. نرخ رشد جمعیت کلان‏شهر تهران؛ 2. نگرش‏های آمایش سرزمین. شیوه مدیریت سرزمین براساس سه پیشران و هشت سناریوی ممکن وجود دارد که سناریوی سوم و سناریوی هشتم به‏دلیل تناقض بین وقوع هم‏زمان تمرکززدایی از تهران و افزایش نرخ رشد جمعیت دارای ناسازگاری درونی بودند و حذف شدند. همچنین، سناریوی پنجم و هفتم به‏دلیل وجود تناقض بین تداوم تمرکزگرایی در تهران و کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیت دارای ناسازگاری درونی بود و از فهرست سناریوها حذف شد. بدین ترتیب،چهار سناریو باقی ماند و داستان سناریو‏ها برای هر کدام از سناریوها ارائه شد.

explaining housing scenarios for vulnerable urban groups case study: metropolis tehran

introduction a large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decisionmaking bodies in the housing sector. therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for lowincome groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. methodology in this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for lowincome housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. after reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the crossimpact analysis method. results and discussion according to the results of crossimpact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. in the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. conclusion accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. the urban poverty status of the tehran metropolis. 2. the population growth rate of the tehran metropolis. 2. attitudes of the land. forms the land management style. based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios. introduction a large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decisionmaking bodies in the housing sector. therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for lowincome groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. methodology in this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for lowincome housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. after reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the crossimpact analysis method. results and discussion according to the results of crossimpact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. in the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. conclusion accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. the urban poverty status of the tehran metropolis. 2. the population growth rate of the tehran metropolis. 2. attitudes of the land. forms the land management style. based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios. introduction a large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decisionmaking bodies in the housing sector. therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for lowincome groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. methodology in this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for lowincome housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. after reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the crossimpact analysis method. results and discussion according to the results of crossimpact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. in the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. conclusion accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. the urban poverty status of the tehran metropolis. 2. the population growth rate of the tehran metropolis. 2. attitudes of the land. forms the land management style. based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios.