برنامه ریزی توسعۀ منطقه ای بر پایۀ روش آینده پژوهی تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و سناریو نویسی سایب (مطالعۀ موردی: استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد)

هدف از پژوهش حاضر برنامه‏ریزی توسعه منطقه‏ای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد بر پایهروش آینده‏پژوهی تحلیل اثرهایمتقاطع و سناریونویسی سایب است. برای تجزیه‏ و تحلیل داده‏ها از نرم‏افزارهای آینده‏پژوهیmicmac  و سناریونویسی scenario wizard مبتنی بر روش طوفان فکری و انگیزش ذهنی استفاده‏ شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان ‏داد نُه پیشران کلیدی ازجمله سرمایه‏گذاری، گردشگری، استفاده از نیروهای متخصص و خبره، منابع آب، شبکهراه‏ها، امنیت سرمایه‏گذاری، محصولات زراعی و کشاورزی، زیربناهای روستایی،و اشتغال از میان 32 عامل شناسایی‏شده بیشترین تاثیر را در رشد و توسعه آینده استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد دارد. همچنین، شاخص تحقیق و توسعه، به‏عنوان عامل تنظیم‏کننده،از میان عوامل تاثیرگذار و تاثیرپذیر رشد و توسعه استان درنظر گرفته شد. همچنین، برای ترسیم چشم‏انداز توسعه منطقه‏ای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد، پیشران‏های کلیدی به‏‏عنوان عوامل پایه و اصلی در سناریونویسی در ادامه استفاده شدند. درواقع،مجموعه وضعیت‏های محتمل این عوامل به‏شکلی شفاف راهبردها و استراتژی‏های کلیدی و سیاست‏گذاری را برای مدیران معین می‏کند. درنهایت، با تدوین 112 وضعیت، 14 سناریو برای توسعه آینده استان درنظر گرفته شد که 12.5درصد از وضعیت‏ها دارای حالت بحرانی‏اند، 18.75درصد در حالت ایستا و68.75درصد در شرایط مطلوب‏اند. همچنین، نتایج پژوهش نشان داد مطلوب‏ترین سناریو برای توسعه آینده استان مبتنی بر استفاده از نخبگان و متخصصان داخل استان، رشد گردشگری طبیعی، توسعه حمل‏ونقل ریلی، توجه به اشتغال‏زایی، توسعه زیربناهای روستایی و مشوق‏های سرمایه‏گذاری و امنیت، توسعه محصولات باغی، و درنهایت مدیریت بهینه و پایدار آب است.

Regional development planning Based on Methods of analysis crossimpact And CIB (Case study: Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Province)

The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and crossimpact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizardbased Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the crossimpact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and crossimpact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizardbased Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the crossimpact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and crossimpact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizardbased Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the crossimpact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and crossimpact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizardbased Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the crossimpact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible.