بررسی ویژگی‌های اقتصادی مسکن و برآورد نرخ سودآوری و بهره‌وری عوامل تولید مسکن (مطالعه موردی: سنندج)

مسکن در ایران از نظر اقتصادی دووجهی است؛ یعنی در عین مصرفی‌بودن، با توجه به شرایط اقتصادی کشور، همواره کالایی سرمایه‌ای محسوب می‌شود. ارزش سرمایه‌ای مسکن در شرایطی که سایر بخش‌های تولیدی و تجاری کشور در حال رکود هستند و این کالا یکی از بخش‌های محدود جذب‌کننده نقدینگی‌های مردم به‌شمار می‌آید، بیشتر می‌شود. با توجه به جایگاه و اهمیت مسکن در اقتصاد خانوارها و اقتصاد کلان کشور، تحولات هریک از بخش‌های کلان اقتصادی کشور در بازار مسکن تاثیرگذار است و هر تغییر در ویژگی‌های اقتصادی بخش مسکن، پیامدهای زنجیره‌ای در اقتصاد کلان به‌‌دنبال دارد. در شهر سنندج با توجه به شرایط توپوگرافی و محدودیت در عرضه زمین مرتبط با نرخ رشد جمعیت (به‌ویژه مهاجرت‌پذیری)، اقتصاد مسکن شرایط ویژه و مهمی دارد. تامین مالی و سهم پس‌انداز خانوارها نیز عاملی تعیین‌کننده است. در این مقاله، با بررسی اجمالی بازار تولید و عرضه زمین و مسکن، سهم مسکن در سبد هزینه‌ای خانوارها تحلیل شده است. همچنین با بررسی نرخ حمایت در بازار زمین و حجم یارانه‌ها، نرخ سودآوری اقتصادی در بازار زمین و ساخت‌وساز محاسبه شده است. بررسی برآورد بهره‌وری عوامل تولید، به‌عنوان یکی از عوامل اصلی تاثیرگذار در رونق یا رکود این بخش در پایان صورت گرفته است. پژوهش حاضر به‌صورت کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی است و نتایج آن نشان می‌دهد میان تقاضای موثر و تقاضای بالقوه شکاف معناداری وجود دارد. همچنین درحالی‌که نرخ سودآوری در بازار زمین و ساخت‌وساز بسیار بالاست، بهره‌وری عوامل تولید مسکن درمجموع مثبت و روبه‌رشد است.

Housing Planning for Urban Lowincome Groups with an emphasis on Their Financial Capabilities, Housing Line of Poverty in Kurdistan Province urban population

Extended AbstractIntroduction:Housing as one of the stellar biological needs of men has allocated a major theoretical, technological, and materialistic concern of mankind. During history, providing this need and its quality has been dependant on cultural, environmental, historical, economical, and technological conditions. World population and urban life’s intense increase which has passed above 50 % and expecting to be more than 68 % by 2050 has caused the challenging question of housing into a crisis. This problem is of greater importance in developing countries due to the fact that their societies are mainly constituted by lowIncome (middleclass) people. In Sanandaj in addition to the situation we see in the national level regarding housing sector that is due to population growth and intense urban life growth, another factors like general level of income has caused unavailability of house especially among weak people less wealthy who are about 35%. In housing market, there are a lot of related economical indices such as family saving, cost and income, profitability rate of land and housing market, land and house price and productivity of housing production factors which play role. This study tries to probe into principal economical reasons of increased gap between offer and demand in housing sector in Sanandaj.Methodology:The study is an applied one conducted through a descriptiveanalytic method. Analyses are done by usual models and methods. To collect data, we use librarybased and field method and its needed data has been gathered through formal sources like Iran Census Center and Iran Central Bank.Results and Discussion:Housing quantitative changes has been considered for studying housing market and influential economical condition of this sector. Based on the obtained results, the gap between housing offer and effective demand is increased since 1355 so that the ratio of a family to a house lessened from 1.0015 in 1355 to 1.15 in 1385. Furthermore, house shortage rate in Sanandaj in comparison with the number of families without considering demolition rate is 10760 units.Land and house price, and lease cost are significant indices for analyzing housing offer and demand market. Annual growth of a 1m3 land in the abovementioned period of time (13551385) is 31.15% while lease cost growth is 25%.By comparing house and land cost rate growth and inflation growth rate, one can perceive the importance of house in economical transactions which also leads to brokerage growth. During this period of time, land, house, and lease cost growth rate have been always more than inflation rate (17.4). At the same time, Sanandaji families’ income growth rate in this period has increased to 16.6 which can be interpreted as a huge gap between potential and effective demand considering a 28% growth in land price and a 31% growth in housing price. Family saving as a main source of house provision with a fixed price of (1380= 100), has been always negative except in four years;