تحلیل شناختی استراتژی های مدیریت ریسک منابع انسانی مبتنی بر مدل‌های ذهنی مدیران و ماتریس ارزیابی ریسک جهت ارتقاء عملکرد کسب و کار

جنبه های شناختی و ساختارهای ذهنی مدیران در سال های اخیر مورد توجه پژوهشگران علم مدیریت قرار گرفته است، بر همین اساس هدف پژوهش حاضر تحلیل شناختی استراتژی‌های مدیریت ریسک منابع انسانی مبتنی بر مدل‌های ذهنی مدیران و ماتریس ارزیابی ریسک جهت ارتقاء عملکرد کسب و کار است. برای نیل به هدف فوق پنج پرسش مطرح شد. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل 77 نفر از مدیران شرکت های دانش بنیان استان آذربایجان شرقی است که مدیریت ریسک منابع انسانی در آنها موضوعیت دارد و به روش سرشماری مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت. برای جمع آوری داده ها از سناریو و پرسشنامه استفاده شد. پایایی پرسشنامه ها با استفاده از ضریب آلفای کرونباخ  0.887 محاسبه شد. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل آماری، ابتدا با استفاده از آمار توصیفی به توصیف متغیرهای پژوهشی پرداخته شد، سپس در بخش آمار استنباطی با استفاده از آزمون‌های خی دو، توکی و تحلیل واریانس یک طرفه به پرسش‌ها پاسخ داده شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد بیشتر مدیران شرکت‌های دانش‌بنیان ریسک‌پذیر بوده، مدیریت ریسک منابع انسانی را جذاب دانسته و در مواجهه با ریسک، استراتژی‌های کاهش و نگهداشت ریسک را بیشتر انتخاب می‌کنند و رابطه معناداری بین مدل‌های ذهنی مدیران و انتخاب نوع خاصی از استراتژی‌های مدیریت ریسک منابع انسانی وجود دارد. به‌علاوه مشخص شد بین انواع استراتژی‌های مدیریت ریسک منابع انسانی در برآورد پیامدهای ریسک و احتمال وقوع ریسک تفاوت معناداری وجود دارد و نتایج بدست آمده با ماتریس ارزیابی ریسک مطابقت داشت.

Cognitive analysis of human resource risk management strategies based on managers’ mental models and risk assessment matrix to improve business performance: A case study of knowledge-based companies

Introduction: Recently, human resource risk management has attracted the attention of risk researchers. Risk is the uncertainty in the distribution of the consequences of an event, the probability of its occurrence, and its mental value. The environment has no independent role, and uncertainty is a characteristic of the manager who wants to make decisions. All the behaviors and decisions of individuals also depend on their cognitive frameworks and mental models. So, human resource risk management is a concept that manifests itself under the influence of managers’ mental model. In the present study, with a cognitive view of human resource risk management in knowledgebased companies, we try to gain a better understanding of a manager’s frame of mind. The cognitive aspect and mental framework of managers have widely been studied by management researchers in recent years. The present study aims at the cognitive analysis of human resource risk management strategies based on managers’ mental models and risk assessment matrix to improve business performance.Methodology: The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptivesurvey in terms of method. The data are collected through library and field studies. The statistical population of the study included 77 managers of knowledgebased companies in East Azerbaijan Province where human resource risk management was relevant. It was studied by the census sampling method. Questionnaires and scenarios were used for data collection. The validity of the questionnaire was assessed for its content. Its reliability was also calculated in terms of Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (0.887). For the statistical analysis, descriptive statistics were used to describe the research variables. Then, the inferential statistics section was answered using chisquare, Tukey and oneway ANOVA tests.Results and Discussion: In the present study, we cognitively analyzed human resource risk management strategies based on managers’ mental models and a risk assessment matrix. The cognitive approach has developed significantly in recent years and, through the knowledge of the brain, mind and its functions, has been able to obtain valuable information about the origins of human behavior.The findings showed the type of managers’ interpretation of real events, their attitude of risk, their choice of a particular type of human resource risk management strategy, and their interpretation of real events. There was a significant relationship between these parameters and human resource risk management. In addition, a significant difference was found between the choice of a particular type of risk management strategy in managers’ estimation of risk outcomes and the probability of risk occurrence. The results were consistent with the risk assessment matrix. The risk is high, and, in the maintenance strategy, the average managers’ assessment of the risk outcomes and the probability of risk occurring are low. In the risk reduction strategy, the average of managers ’assessment of low risk outcomes and the probability of occurrence of high risk and, in the risk transfer strategy, the average of managers’ assessment of high risk outcomes and the probability of occurrence of risk are low.Conclusion: In this study, it was found that most managers in knowledgebased companies are risktakers, consider human resource risk management attractive, and, in the face of risks, choose risk reduction and maintenance strategies. There is also a significant relationship between managers’ mental models and strategy selection. The more managers value the company’s opportunities and strengths and find human resource risk management attractive, the more riskaverse they are, and the more they value weaknesses and threats. They consider human resource risk management as a necessity (determinism), and risk aversion is obvious in their management. In fact, instead of waiting for opportunities, risktaking managers hunt for opportunities. In addition, it was found that the more risktaking managers are, the more they tend to choose risk reduction and maintenance strategies, and the more riskaverse they are. The more prominent managers are more inclined to choose reduction and avoidance strategies. In fact, the differences in managers’ interpretations and perceptions of risk make them act differently in their decisions and behave differently. In other words, the mental models of managers in knowledgebased companies in East Azerbaijan Province is a determining factor in interpreting the environmental events and identifying the opportunities and threats that affect the decisionmaking process. Therefore, it is better for these managers to increase their awareness of human resource risks, the source of risks, their control methods as well as the status and position of their company and competitors.