بررسی سیاست‌خارجی دولت دونالدترامپ بر اساس مدل بازیگر عقلایی

در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﻼش ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ در دوره‌ دوﻧﺎﻟﺪ ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮ ﻋﻘﻼﯾﯽ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﻮد. اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪل ﮐﻪ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻖ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻓﺎﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ، از ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ ﺑﺮای ﺗﻮﺿﯿﺢ رﻓﺘﺎرﻫﺎی ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ در دوره‌ ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ. ﻣﺪل ﻋﻘﻼﯾﯽ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی، ﺑﺮ اﻧﺴﺎن اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار از ﺗﻌﻘﻞ ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ دارد ﮐﻪ اﺑﺘﺪا ﻫﺪف را ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ و ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺒﻌﯿﺖ از ﻣﻨﻄﻖ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻓﺎﯾﺪه، ﻣﻄﻠﻮبﺗﺮﯾﻦ (ﻋﺎﻗﻼﻧﻪﺗﺮﯾﻦ) راه را ﺑﺮﻣﯽﮔﺰﯾﻨﺪ. ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، درﭘﯽ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺳﺆال اﺳﺖ: ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﺘﻌﺎرف دوﻧﺎﻟﺪ ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ را در ﺧﺮوج از ﻣﻮاﻓﻘﺖﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎی ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ و ﻧﻮع روﯾﮑﺮد وی ﻧﺴﺒﺖﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﮥ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻞ را ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﮐﺮد؟ در ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺆال ﻣﺬﮐﻮر، اﯾﻦ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪ ﻣﻄﺮح ﻣﯽﺷﻮد: رﻓﺘﺎرﻫﺎی ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ در ﺧﺮوج از ﻣﻮاﻓﻘﺖﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎی ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ و ﻧﻮع روﯾﮑﺮد اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻣﺤﻮر وی ﻧﺴﺒﺖﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻞ، ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل ﻋﻘﻼﯾﯽ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی و ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزی ﺳﻮد ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺿﯿﺢ اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖآﻣﺪه ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﻣﻨﻄﻖ ﻓﺎﯾﺪهﮔﺮاﯾﯽ، ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﮐﻠﯿﺪی ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ را ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﺑﺎره، ﻃﺮح ﺷﻌﺎر «ﻧﺨﺴﺖ اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ» ازﺳﻮی ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ، ﺑﻪﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻓﺎﯾﺪهﮔﺮاﯾﯽ، ﯾﮏﺟﺎﻧﺒﻪﮔﺮاﯾﯽ، ﻧﻮاﻧﺰواﮔﺮای، ﻧﺎﺳﯿﻮﻧﺎﻟﯿﺴﻢ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و اﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﮔﺮاﯾﯽ در ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎﺳﺖ.

Studying Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy from the Perspective of the Rational Actor Model

Among the various decisionmaking models, the Rational Actor Model, which is based on costbenefit logic, provides a good framework for better understanding Trump’s foreign policy behaviors that can be considered by the country’s decision makers.The main premise of the rational model of decisionmaking is the economically rational human being who tries to choose the most desirable way to achieve the goal by following the costbenefit logic. The main question of the research is &How can Donald Trump’s foreign policy in withdrawing from international agreements and his approach to the issue of international security be analyzed in a theoretical framework?& In response to this question, the hypothesis has been put forward: &Trump’s foreign policy behaviors in withdrawing from international agreements and his economyoriented approach to the issue of international security can be explained based on the rational model of decisionmaking and profit maximization.& In this regard, Trump’s “America First” slogan, is a good example of utilitarianism in his foreign policy. This paper applies descriptiveanalytical method to explain the American foreign policy from the perspective of the rational actor model. The data collection has been in the form of libraries, scientific journals and the use of reputable Internet sites.