شناسایی سناریوهای موثر بر آینده دیپلماسی عمومی تحت تاثیر فراروندهای فضای سایبر با رویکرد تحلیل ساختاری.

روﻧﺪﻫﺎ و ﻓﺮاروﻧﺪﻫﺎی ﻓﻀﺎی ﻣﺠﺎزی (ﺳﺎﯾﺒﺮی) در ﻫﻤﮥ ﺣﻮزهﻫﺎی ﺣﯿﺎت ﺟﻤﻌﯽ و ﺣﺘﯽ ﻓﺮدی ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار اﺳﺖ؛ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاری در ﺑﺮﺗﺮی ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ در دﻓﺎع از ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﯽ، ﻣﺄﻣﻮرﯾﺖ و ﺗﻼش ﻋﻤﺪه‌ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﻋﻼوهﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎی ﮐﻨﻮﻧﯽ و اراﺋﮥ رﻫﯿﺎﻓﺘﯽ ﻣﻘﻄﻌﯽ، ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﮑﺮ درﺑﺎره‌ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎی آﯾﻨﺪه و ﻧﺤﻮه‌ ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﻪ و ﻗﺪرتﯾﺎﺑﯽ در آن ﻋﺮﺻﻪ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺷﻮد. دﯾﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﯽ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪﺑﻪ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ آن در ﺣﻮزه‌ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ از اﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎ ﻧﺒﻮده و ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ آن ﺗﻮﺟﻪ وﯾﮋه ﺷﻮد. ﭘﺮﺳﺶ اﺻﻠﯽ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ: ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻓﺮاروﻧﺪﻫﺎی ﻓﻀﺎی ﺳﺎﯾﺒﺮ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎی ﻣﻄﻠﻮب و ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب دﯾﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﯽ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﭼﯿﺴﺖ؟ ﭘﺲ از اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪای و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺳﻨﺎد و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ، ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺘﯽ از ﻓﺮاروﻧﺪﻫﺎ و روﻧﺪﻫﺎی ﮐﻠﯿﺪی ﻓﻀﺎی ﺳﺎﯾﺒﺮ، ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ آﯾﻨﺪه‌ دﯾﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﯽ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪ؛ ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮی از روشﻫﺎی آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎری، روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎری، ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ، ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺷﺪ و ﺑﺎ اﺧﺬ ﻧﻈﺮ دوازده ﻧﻔﺮ از ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن و اﺟﻤﺎع ﻧﻈﺮﯾﺎت آﻧﺎن درﺑﺎره‌ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاری ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺑﺮ ﯾﮑﺪﯾﮕﺮ وارد ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ دادهﻫﺎی ﺑﻪدﺳﺖآﻣﺪه از ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﻣﯿﮏﻣﮏ، روﻧﺪﻫﺎی راﻫﺒﺮدی ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ و ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﺮای ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻓﻮق ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮏ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻧﻮﯾﺴﯽ، وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب و ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ و ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮی از داﻧﺶ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن در ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات وﻗﻮع ﻫﺮﯾﮏ از وﺿﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎ وﻗﻮع ﯾﺎ وﻗﻮعﻧﯿﺎﻓﺘﻦ وﺿﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎی دﯾﮕﺮ، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖﻫﺎی ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ وﯾﺰارد، ﭼﻬﺎر ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺒﻨﺎی ﻋﻤﻞ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. روش ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﻪﺻﻮرت آﻣﯿﺨﺘﻪ اﮐﺘﺸﺎﻓﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺷﮑﻞ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﮥ اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ آﯾﻨﺪه‌ دﯾﺠﯿﺘﺎل، اﻣﻨﯿﺖ، اﯾﻨﺘﺮﻧﺖ اﺷﯿﺎ، ارﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎت، ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ژﺋﻮﭘﻠﯿﺘﮑﯽ، ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی، ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان اﺻﻠﯽ و ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ آﯾﻨﺪه‌ دﯾﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﯽ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﮐﻪ در دو دﺳﺘﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎی ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ و ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﮏ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﭘﯿﺎدهﺳﺎزی ﺷﺪﻧﺪ.

Identifying scenarios affecting the future of public diplomacy under the influence of cyberspace metropolitans with a structural analysis

Given the position and effectiveness of cyberspace metropolises in all areas of collective and even individual life and its effective role in the superiority of countries in defending the interests of their nation, this research seeks To examine and analyze the role of this important and sensitive factor in the future of public diplomacy A list of cyberspace metropolises, affecting the future of public diplomacy, was designed using the futuristic methods of identifying, matrix of interaction effects..By analyzing the data obtained with the software, it was possible to identify strategic trends and effective actors, including the promotion of artificial intelligence, increasing connections, new business models, external threats, globalization, protection of intellectual capital, global trade, political stability, discourse change. The Library of Power, Strategic Communication, Increasing Virtual Networks, Economic Communication, Cultural and Social CommunicationWith the scenario writing technique and using the Wizard scenario software, the effects of each of the situations occurring or not occurring were identified.The results of this study indicate that seven factors are the main and effective actors in the future of public diplomacy, which were implemented in two categories of desirable scenarios, including three scenarios and undesirable, including one scenario.