مطالعۀ ملی- عرضی عوامل موثر بر جرائم خشونت‌آمیز در سطح کلان

هدف این پژوهش، تبیین جامعه‌شناختی عوامل موثر بر وقوع جرائم خشونت‌آمیز در سطح کلان است. در این راستا، با طرح نظریۀ تلفیقی، شناخت سازوکار علّی وقوع نتیجه مدنظر قرار گرفت. روش مطالعه، رویکرد تطبیقی کیفی بود و از رهیافت منطق فازی استفاده شد. نتایج شرایط لازم و کافی منفرد وقوع نتیجه در مجموع موارد مثبت نشان دادند شروط حاکمیت قانون، فرصت شغلی، برابری اقتصادی و کارآیی دولت به‌تنهایی شروط کافی وقوع نتیجه‌‌اند. غیاب دو شرط برابری اقتصادی و فرصت شغلی بین مجموعه موارد منفی نیز نشان‌دهندۀ اهمیت نظری و تجربی این دو شرط در تبیین خشونت در سطح کلان است. در علیت عطفی و ترکیبی، معادلۀ نهایی پژوهش حاضر نشان داد ترکیب شروط برابری اقتصادی، سرمایۀ رابطه‌‌ای، مردم‌سالاری، پاسخگویی دولت، کارآیی دولت، حاکمیت قانون و فرصت فرهنگی، قدرت تبیینی بالایی دربارۀ وقوع نتیجۀ مدنظر دارند و این ادعا در تبیین نتیجه در هر دو مجموعه موارد مثبت و منفی (یعنی کشورهایی که میزان خشونت در آنها کم است و کشورهایی که میزان خشونت در آنها زیاد است) صدق می‌کند. نکتۀ مهم آن است که برابری اقتصادی لزوماً در همۀ موارد با نتیجه همراه نیست. چه‌بسا با تنظیم ساختاری کارا، نابرابری اقتصادی لزوماً ایجادکنندۀ جرائم خشونت‌آمیز نباشد؛ بنابراین، نتیجه تا حد زیادی با داشتن مجموعه دلایل زمینه‌مند، به ترکیب عوامل بستگی دارد.

A Crossnational Study of Factors Influencing Violent Crimes at the Macro Level

IntroductionViolence, the external symbol of misuse of power, misuse and unlawful use of it against public rights, laws and universal freedoms have been integral parts of human society and have occurred in various forms throughout the history. We do not have a society free of violence in the history. As many as 5.3 million people are estimated to be victims of violence worldwide each year. But, despite the fact that violence is a problem in most parts of the world, not all communities have experienced this social reality alike. In some societies, this has become a pervasive issue, while in others, the contradictions in a society have been largely regulated and managed. The purpose of this study is to explain the sociological factors influencing the occurrence of violent crimes at the macro level. In this regard, this paper seeks to understand the causal mechanism of violence by presenting a combined theory. In this study, the author attempts, as far as possible, to provide a model for explaining violence that feeds on the middle and macro analytical levels.  Material & MethodsThe study method was a qualitative comparative approach used from fuzzy logic. One of the advantages of this method is that it provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for the event to occur and the desired outcome and evaluates the effect of the sum of the causal conditions on the outcome variable. In this study, possible combinations of causal conditions were obtained using fuzzy set software (FS / QCA). The study was conducted in 89 countries. The present study was a crosssectional and covered data for the period 20102016. Data on variables composed of multiple reagent combinations obtained from the column of values calculated by factor analysis of a data column for each single agent. The unit and level of analysis in this study were the country and macro, respectively.            Discussion of Results & Conclusion   In this analysis, in explaining the causal explanation of violence, ten main conditions were considered that out of the multiple causal paths, two causal paths were of theoretical and empirical importance. From the results we can conclude that the combination of economic opportunity conditions, relational capital, democracy, government accountability, government efficiency, rule of law, and cultural opportunity have high explanatory power over the outcome. This claim holds true for both positive and negative aspects (i.e., countries where violence is low and countries where violence is high). In other words, countries where violence is low have a combination of these conditions. Also, in countries where there is a high level of violence, these conditions are not present. A country can be safe from the extensive experience of violent crimes that have causal conditions. The important point to note is that economic equality is not necessarily associated with the outcome in all cases. Probably, with an effective structural adjustment, economic inequality does not necessarily lead to violent crimes. Therefore, the result largely depends on the combination of factors. Overall, this study suggests that the role of structural adjustment and the power of government regulation at the macro level should be emphasized. This is prominent in the rule of law, accountability, and government efficiency. Needless to say, these variables are related to the balanced distribution of the opportunities and give the desired outcome. The results of this study can help us to understand the cause of violent crime in macro level. With the results obtained, practitioners can succeed in policymaking in this area with a greater theoretical and empirical knowledge. Undoubtedly, the results of this study provide us with insights that can be programmed to reduce violent crime.