نگرش جمعیت‌شناختی و اجتماعی به شکل‌های نوظهور خانواده در ایران

مطابق نظریۀ گذار جمعیت‌‎شناختی دوم، در جوامع معاصر طیف فزاینده‌ای از شکل‌های نوظهور خانواده‌ مشاهده می‌شود. موضوع محوری این پژوهش، مطالعۀ این شکل‌های نوظهور در قالب مولفه‌های چهارگانه مشتمل بر خانوادۀ بی‌فرزندی، خانوادۀ تک‌فرزندی، خانوادۀ تک‌والدی و زندگی مشترک بدون ازدواج است. تلاش شده است شواهد پژوهشی سبب شناخت بهتر برخی از مهم‌ترین الگوها و تعیین‌کننده‌های مرتبط با چگونگی نگرش نسبت به این مولفه‌های چهارگانه شوند. مباحث این مقاله بر تجزیه و تحلیل‌های یک بررسی پیمایشی مبتنی‌اند و جمعیت نمونۀ آن را در کل تعداد 4267 نفر مردان و زنان ‌15ساله و بالاتر ساکن در نقاط شهری و روستایی شهرستان‌های منتخب ایران تشکیل داده‌اند. تجزیه و تحلیل‌های اولیه نشان‌دهندۀ چهار الگوی کلی است؛ اول اینکه، میزان نگرش مثبت به الگوی خانوادۀ بی‌فرزندی بسیار اندک (کمتر از 2 درصد) است. دوم اینکه، حدود یک‌دهم جمعیت مطالعه‌شده به الگوی خانوادۀ تک‌فرزندی نگرش مثبت دارند. الگوهای سوم و چهارم نیز به خانوادۀ تک‌والدی و زندگی مشترک بدون ازدواج یا زوج‌زیستی مربوط‌اند و حدود یک‌پنجم جمعیت مطالعه‌شده نسبت به این شکل‌های نوظهور خانواده نگرش مثبت دارند. در عین حال، این الگوهای کلی به‌طور معناداری از سه دسته عوامل تعیین‌کننده شامل متغیرها و تعیین‌کننده‌های جمعیت‌شناختی پایه (مانند محل سکونت، وضعیت تاهل، سن و سطح تحصیلات)، متغیرهای مرتبط با مولفه‌های دین و دینداری و متغیرهای معطوف به نگرش جنسیتی تاثیر می‌گیرند. مطابق نتایج تحلیل‌های چندمتغیره، متغیرهای مستقل پژوهش مشتمل بر جنسیت، محل سکونت، گروه سنی، تحصیلات و وضعیت تاهل 16.5 درصد از تغییرات نگرش به خانوادۀ تک‌والدی، 17.5 درصد از تغییرات نگرش به تک‌فرزندی و 19 درصد از تغییرات نگرش به زوج‌زیستی را تبیین می‌کنند. در مجموع، یافته‌های این پژوهش در چارچوب الگوی دوگانۀ سنت‌گرایی – نوگرایی‌ جمع‌بندی و تبیین می‌شوند؛ یعنی هرچه جنبۀ نگرش سنتی ضعیف‌تر و بر قوت نگرش مدرن و غیرسنتی افزوده شود، میزان نگرش مثبت به شکل‌های نوظهور خانواده تشدید می‌شود.

SocioDemographic Attitude towards Emerging Forms of Family in Iran

IntroductionAccording to the second demographic transition theory, the contemporary societies are facing an increasing range of emerging forms of family, which is the central focus of the present study.  One of the main characteristics of the past centruries socalled ‘Golden Age’ was the importance of family and the stability of marital union. On the contrary, contemporary societies are witnessing substantial challenges in family ties and marital union. Some of these family challenges are the increasing proportion of unmarried individuals, growing age of marriage, substantial fall in birth and fertility rate, the increasing trends of divorce, childlessness, onechild family, singleparent family, and cohabitation. In particular, this article presents researchbased evidence to explore patterns and determinants associated with attitudes toward emerging forms of family identified by childlessness, onechild family, singleparent family, and cohabitation.  Material & MethodsThis analysis is based on a survey conducted in rural and urban areas of Ahvaz, Babolsar, Bojnord, Esfarayen, GonbadKavos, Kamyaran, Khoramabad, Mahmoudabad, Hamadan, and Saghez. The survey includes 4267 males and females aged 15 years old and over. The main independent variable of this analysis is the emerging forms of family, which is measured and identified by childlessness, onechild family, singleparent family, and cohabitation. In addition, the dependents variables of this study are classified in three major categories. The first category of independent variables referes to demographic factors: age, gender (males, females), place of residence (rural and urban areas), marital status, and level of education. The second category of independent variables is related to gender attitude. It is measured in this analysis by the attitude of individuals towards the malebreadwinner model and women’s employment outside the home. The last category of independent variables includes religiosity. It is measured in this analysis in three ways: individuals’ selfassesment about their religiosity, their attitudes towards women’s dress codes or hijab, and attitude towards women’s right to decide about dress codes or hijab. Discussion of Results & ConclusionOn the basis of the preliminary results of this analysis, the following general patterns can be highlighted. First, childlessness is substantially unacceptable as only 2 percent of people hold positive attitude toward this emerging form of family. Second, about onetenth of people are positive towards onechild family. Third, a relatively greater proportion of people hold positive attitudes towards both singleparent family and cohabitation since around 20 per cent of people are positive towards each of these two emerging forms of family. Moreover, these general patterns are significantly affected by three groups of determinants. It includes determinants related to gender attitudes, religiosity, and basic demographic determinants such as age, place of residence, marital status, and education. For example, the unmarrieds are more likely than the marrieds to hold a positive attitude towards the emerging forms of family. It is even more visible and stronger among the divorced ones, as compared with both singles and the marrieds. The divorced individuals are twice as likely as both singles and the marrieds to hold a positive attitude towards the emerging forms of family. This applies to the all emerging forms of family considered in this study: onechild family, singleparent family, and cohabitation. Another example relates to the effect of educational level: the higher the level of education, the greater the proportion of positive attitude towards the all emerging forms of family including onechild family, singleparent family, and cohabitation. Another demographic determinant in this analysis is age composition which plays a significant role in the attitude towards emerging forms of family: while the older age cohorts are more conservative and largely hold negative attitude towards the all emerging forms of family, the opposite exists among the younger age cohorts. For instance, the proportion of positive attitude towards cohabition amongst the youger cohort aged 1524 years old is more than 5 times greater than the corresponding proportion amongst the older cohort aged 50 years and above. This also reflects an overwhelming generational gap with regards to the social perception towards the emerging forms of family.In conclusion, the results of this study can be mainly summerized and explained by the traditiaonalismmodenization model, suggesting that the positive attitudes towards emerging forms of family are substantially associated with modern and liberal beliefs: the stronger the later, the higher the former.