بررسی پراکنش فضایی و روند غلظت گرد و خاک در غرب آسیا و ارتباط آن با متغیرهای اقلیمی

گردوخاک یکی از شاخص های مهم تغییر اقلیم است. با این حال، پیوند بین گرد و خاک و اقلیم به‌دلیل بازخوردهای مستقیم و غیرمستقیم در سامانه زمین بسیار پیچیده است. این مطالعه پراکنش فضایی و روند گردوخاک های غرب آسیا و ارتباط آن ها را با متغیرهای اقلیمی دما، بارش و تندی باد مورد بررسی قرار داده است. بدین‌منظور برای بررسی پراکنش فضایی روند غلظت گردوخاک از برونداد متغیر غلظت گردوخاک مجموعه داده merra-2 و برای بررسی متغیرهای اقلیمی، مجموعه دادهagera5  استفاده شد. تغییرات فصلی غلظت گرد و خاک به خوبی چشمه های فعال گرد و خاک در منطقه مورد مطالعه را مشخص کرد. بررسی کارایی متغیرهای اقلیمی دما، بارش و تندی باد نشان داده است مجموعه دادهagera5  دما را با کارایی بالاتری نسبت به بارش و تندی باد در ایستگاه های نماینده پهنه های اقلیمی در غرب آسیا برآورد می کند. از بین سه متغیر مورد بررسی، تندی باد کارایی به نسبت کمتری را نسبت به دما و بارش نشان داده است. به طور کلی مجموعه دادهagera5  دارای کارای قابل قبولی در برآورد متغیرهای اقلیمی است و در مناطق فاقد داده از این مجموعه داده می توان به‌عنوان یک داده جایگزین استفاده کرد. نتایج نشان داد که متغیرهای اقلیمی نقش کلیدی را در تغییرپذیری غلظت گردوخاک در منطقه مورد مطالعه دارند، بطوریکه مناطق منطبق بر باد شمال تابستانه و باد 120 روزه سیستان بالاترین غلظت گردوخاک سالانه را دارند. بالاترین ضریب همبستگی بین غلظت گردوخاک با دما در ماه های گرم سال به بیش از 0.8 و با تندی باد در ماه های ژانویه تا می و نوامبر تا دسامبر بیشتر از 0.6 و همبستگی آن با بارش در ماه های سرد سال 0.7– محاسبه شده است. غلظت گردوخاک روند افزایشی را در مناطق بیابانی ربع‌الخالی، النفود، الدهنا، بین‌النهرین، بیابان های عراق و سوریه داشته به طوری‌که از ماه های مارس تا اوت (بهار و تابستان) روند افزایشی غلظت گردوخاک در سطح 0.05 معنی دار است. بالاترین شدت روند افزایشی در فصول بهار و تابستان در مناطق بین‌النهرین، بیابان های عراق، سوریه و یمن، دشت سیستان و بیابان تار در پاکستان و جنوب شرق ایران مشاهده شد.

investigating the spatial distribution and trend of dust mass density in west asia and its relationship with climate variables

introductiondust emission is considered as one of the environmental hazards in arid and semi-arid regions. understanding the effective variables in increasing dust mass density is very important for early warning and reducing its imposing damages. one of the main and effective variables in the occurrence of dust is the geographical and climate characteristics of the origin areas and areas affected by this phenomenon. feeding the great rivers of mesopotamia, it has reduced soil moisture. also, the wind component is one of the reasons for the increase in dust in these areas. this study examines the relative importance of climatic variables to investigate seasonal and monthly changes in dust emission in west asia and parts of south and central asia. materials and methodsthis study has examined west asian dust from three perspectives spatial distribution, trends, and their relationship with climate variables. for this purpose, the dust column mass density (ducmass) variable output of the merra-2 dataset was used to investigate the spatial distribution of the dust mass density trend, and the agera5 dataset was used to investigate the seasonal and monthly changes of precipitation, wind speed, and temperature variables from 1981 to 2020. in this study, the modified mann-kendall (mmk) trend test method was used to investigate the trend of dust occurrence in the study area, and the sen's slope estimator (sse) test was used to investigate the slope of the trend and to better display the changes in dust mass density in the western region. the results of the sse test have been examined on a decade scale. results and discussioninvestigating the possible climate drivers in the changes of dust mass density for different regions by calculating the correlation between the time series of dust mass density and the variables of temperature, precipitation, and wind speed has been investigated. the results showed that there is an inverse correlation between dust mass density and precipitation and a direct relationship between dust mass density and temperature and wind speed. the highest correlations between dust mass density and temperature have been calculated, and this value has reached 0.9 in the warm months of the year. on the other hand, the highest negative correlations have been calculated in the cold period of the year (winter and autumn seasons) between dust concentration and precipitation with a value of -0.7. the correlation coefficient between dust mass density and wind speed in the months of january to may and november to december was mostly above 0.6. this value shows a lower correlation in the summer season.in most months of the year, dust mass density shows an increasing trend in most regions, from march to july, an increasing trend in active dust springs in mesopotamia, the deserts of iraq and syria, the desert of rub' al khali, ad-dahna and al nufud al kabir were observed in arabia and thar desert in pakistan. this increasing trend started cyclically from the beginning of spring and reaches its peak in june and july, and the intensity of the trend decreases from september and reaches its minimum value in december. the important point is that the cycle of changes in the monthly trend of dust mass density coincides with the cycle of changes in dust mass density. the northern parts of iran and turkey have the highest frequency among different months of the year with a decreasing trend of dust mass density. the increasing trend of dust mass density in the spring and summer seasons in mesopotamia, the deserts of iraq, syria, and yemen, the sistan plain, and the thar desert in pakistan and the southeast of iran was significant at the level of 0.05. conclusionthe results revealed that the seasonal changes in dust mass density show well the active sources of dust in the studied area. in the spring and summer seasons, the activity of the dust centers located in the west of the study area, including the rub' al khali, ad-dahna and al nufud al kabir deserts, mesopotamia, the deserts of iraq and syria, increases and on the arrival of dust to the west and southwest iran affects. the investigation showed that climate variables play a key role in the variability of dust mass density in the study area so the areas corresponding to the summer north wind and the 120-day wind of sistan have shown the highest dust mass density in annual variability. the correlation coefficient between dust mass density with temperature and direct wind speed and its correlation with negative precipitation have been obtained. the results showed that dust mass density has an increasing trend in most of the regions, so from march to august (spring and summer), the increasing trend of dust mass density is significant at the level of 0.05. the highest intensity of the increasing trend was observed in the spring and summer seasons in mesopotamia, the deserts of iraq, syria, and yemen, the sistan plain, and the thar desert in pakistan and southeast iran.