تعیین الگوی کشت بهینه مبتنی بر هم‏بست آب، انرژی، غذا و سود اقتصادی (مطالعه موردی استان مرکزی- دشت فراهان)

ارائه و اجرای یک الگوی کشت بهینه علاوه بر مدیریت بهتر منابع پایه آب و خاک، امکان کشاورزی پایدار را فراهم نموده و از لحاظ جنبه‏های اقتصادی و اجتماعی یک ضرورت انکارناپذیر است. این تحقیق با هدف بهینه‏سازی الگوی کشت با استفاده از رویکرد برنامه‏ریزی چند هدفه، برای پیوند شاخص‏های آب، غذا، انرژی و سود اقتصادی در دشت فراهان و در سال 1400 اجرا شد. الگوی کشت بهینه برای شرایط نرمال، خشکسالی و ترسالی به گونه‏ای ارائه شد که بهره‏برداری از منابع آب در شرایط پایدار صورت پذیرد. نتایج حاصل نشان داد، مقدار آب مصرفی الگوی کشت بهینه در شرایط نرمال، خشکسالی و ترسالی به ترتیب 23، 29 و 18 درصد نسبت به الگوی کشت موجود کاهش می‏یابد. از طرفی مقدار کالری تولیدی الگوی کشت بهینه در شرایط نرمال، خشکسالی و ترسالی به ترتیب 52، 62 و 45 درصد، متوسط بهره‏وری انرژی 41، 43و 36 درصد و سود خالص تولیدی 43، 31 و 44 درصد نسبت به الگوی کشت موجود افزایش می‏یابد. به منظور بهره‏برداری بهینه از منابع آب بایستی الگوی کشت در دوره‏های خشکسالی، نرمال و ترسالی مطابق الگوی بهینه پیشنهادی تغییر یابد. بنابراین، با توجه به اینکه الگوی کشت موجود کمترین انطباق را برای رسیدن به اهداف چهارگانه کاهش مصرف آب، افزایش تولید غذا، کاهش مصرف انرژی و افزایش سود اقتصادی دارد، برنامه‏ریزی‏های کلان در این دشت بایستی در راستای اجرای الگوی کشت بهینه پیشنهادی تدوین گردد.

determining the optimal cropping pattern based on the multiple objectives of water, energy, food and economic profit indices (case study: markazi province - farahan plain)

introductionwater is one of the most important factors of development in human societies, water scarcity, specially fresh water which is one of the main limitation for agricultural, economic and social development in most developing countries. providing and implementing an optimal cropping pattern, in addition to better management of water and soil resources, can lead to reducing production risk, increasing the ability to deal with crises, improving employment, better management of providing services to farmers, and providing the possibility of expanding agro-based industries. in many regions of the world, including in iran, many studies have been done to improve the cropping pattern in different regions. despite the existing problems in designing and implementing the appropriate cropping pattern in the plains, modifying the cropping pattern based on scientific principles and emphasizing the reduction of water consumption while reducing water consumption provides the possibility of sustainable agriculture and in terms of economic and social aspects. implementing an optimized cropping pattern in the farahan plain is an undeniable necessity to preserve national resources. this study was conducted with the objective of optimizing the cropping pattern in the area, taking into account multiple criteria. methodologyin this research, considering the importance of determining the cropping pattern based on the multiple objectives of the decision makers, it was tried to determine the optimal cropping pattern by using mathematical programming and fuzzy logic by establishing a compromise between the objectives of the cropping pattern. the model considered for this study was in the framework of the goal of the maximum ideal distance (fuzzy composite distance). also, in order to use water resources sustainably, scenarios of cropping patterns are presented based on different conditions of water resources uses. based on the basin’s water resource stability, an optimal cropping pattern was developed to address the conditions of normal water resource exploitation, as well as sustainable and unsustainable scenarios. each scenario corresponds to a specific period. to achieve this, a multi-objective planning approach was utilized, integrating water, food, energy, and economic profit indicators. the resulting optimal cropping pattern considers stable water resource utilization during normal, drought, and wet periods, ensuring sustainable conditions. results and discussionthe results showed that the amount of water consumed by the optimal cropping pattern compared to the existing cropping pattern under normal, drought and wet conditions is reduced by 23.2, 29.2 and 18.1%, respectively. on the other hand, compared to the existing cropping pattern, the amount of calories produced by the optimal cropping pattern under normal, drought and wet conditions increases by 51.7, 61.9 and 45.2%, the average energy efficiency increases by 40.9, 42.8 and 35.8% and the net profit productivity increases by 43.3, 30.9 and 44.2 %, respectively. based on the obtained results, it can be seen that in the optimal cropping pattern in drought conditions, the cultivated area of crops such as potatoes, onions, tomatoes, grain corn, sugar beets, beans, alfalfa and watermelons should reach to the zero or be at the lowest possible level. in normal and drought conditions, the cultivated area of these crops should be minimal. on the other hand, the area under cultivation of crops such as fodder sorghum, fodder corn, saffron, cumin, camellia and medicinal plants should be increased and the cultivation of these crops should be promoted at the region. also, regarding horticultural products, the cultivated area of walnut, apple, peach, apricot and almond orchards should be minimized and replaced with plants such as grapes, oleaster, jujube, barberry, rose, and figs.