دامنه عبور نرخ تعرفه واردات به قیمت محصولات کشاورزی در مناطق شهری و روستایی ایران

شناخت اثر سیاست آزادسازی تجاری در بخش کشاورزی در کشورهای در حال توسعه به دلیل وابستگی حیاتی خانوارها به کشاورزی از نظر درآمد و مصرف ضروری است. اثر سیاست آزادسازی تجاری با توجه به مجموعه عوامل اثرگذار بر انتقال قیمت از بازارهای جهانی به بازار داخلی و دستمزدها متفاوت بوده و یک سیاست تجاری مشابه به احتمال زیاد دارای نتایج متفاوت در کشورهای مختلف خواهد بود. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی دامنه عبور نرخ تعرفه های تجاری به قیمت گروه های عمده محصولات کشاورزی در بخش شهری و روستایی کشور طی دوره زمانی 93-1384 می باشد. برای این منظور با استفاده از داده های هزینه و درآمد خانوار مرکز آمار ایران و سالنامه آماری گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران، دامنه عبور تغییرات نرخ تعرفه به قیمت های داخلی محصولات کشاورزی با استفاده از مدل عبور نرخ تعرفه نیکیتا و داده های شبه پانل برآورد گردید. نتایج نشان دهنده عبور ناقص و پایین نرخ تعرفه به قیمت گروه کالاهای محصولات کشاورزی در ایران می باشد؛ به طوریکه در مناطق شهری عبور نرخ تعرفه به قیمت های محصولات کشاورزی در دامنه صفر و 17 درصد و در بخش روستایی در دامنه صفر و 26 درصد قرار دارد. عبور پایین نرخ تعرفه به قیمت های داخلی در ایران به دلیل زیرساخت های محدودتر و بازارهای ناقص دور از انتظار نیست. توصیه می گردد سیاست گذاران در اتخاذ سیاست های تجاری عواملی همچون مکانیزم انتقال قیمت در بازار، وضعیت زیرساخت ها و اثرات منطقه ای عبور نرخ تعرفه به قیمت ها را مد نظر قرار دهند.

The Range of Import PassThrough Tariffs to Agricultural Products Prices in Urban and Rural Areas of Iran

Introduction: Due to dependence of households to agriculture in terms of income and consumption, study the effects of trade liberalization in this sector is necessary in developing countries. Trade liberalization policies have different results in various countries because of the factors that influence price transmission from world markets to domestic market. In other words, the extent of tariff passthrough is different in this country. Tariff passthrough determines how much tariff changes passthrough to domestic prices, therefore study the extent of tariff passthrough to prices is important. The aim of this study is determine the extent of tariff passthrough to agricultural products prices considering the heterogeneity in urban and rural area during 138493. For this purpose, major agricultural products in the household basket, aggregated in six groups and extent of tariff passthrough to prices of these groups, were estimated by making pseudo panel data and using Nikita (2004, 2009) tariff passthrough model. The reason to use pseudo panel data is that time series of household surveys data does not exist. Deaton (1985) states that it is possible to construct pseudopanel data by using repeated of crosssectional data (with individuals completely different from one to another) and obtain estimators similar to panel data. In this method, each cohort will be created using individuals who share some common characteristics. Then, observations are constructed from average of each cohort. Study the extent of tariff passthrough to agricultural prices is important because Iran has not experienced a broad liberalization and did not joined WTO; also for low income and developing countries such as Iran local markets may be exposed to high transfer costs and often poor integration into the international economy. So the regional aspects of tariff passthrough is important. The results of this study represents the ability or defect of regional markets in global prices passthrough to local prices and this will be a guidance for policymakers to reform the structure of local markets before joining WTO. Materials and Methods: Tariff passthrough theory is based on exchange passthrough literature that examines the changes in price of imported goods due to changes in exchange rate. Tariff paththrough model determines how much of observed changes in prices during the study can be directly attributed to tariff changes policy. To calculate the effect of tariff changes on prices we used Nikita (2004, 2009). He expresses that change in domestic prices of imported goods is determined by tariff change multiplied imported goods prices and adjusted by changes in exporter markup. Since the development of domestic markets is important, this model use trade costs to calculate the extent to which local markets are receptive to movements in border prices. Results and Discussion: The results indicated an incomplete tariff passthrough for different groups of agricultural products. Tariff Change have different effects on prices of agricultural products in urban and rural areas. As in urban areas tariff pass through to prices are in range of 0 and 17 percent and in rural areas are in range of 0 and 26 percent. This level of tariff passthrough is slightly smaller than what has been stated in the literature. For example Nikita (2009) has gained tariff passthrough to agricultural prices almost 33%. Cherkaoui et al (2011) has gained results about 13% and Marchand (2012) result show that tariff passthrough to agricultural prices are between 64 to 68 percent in urban areas and in range 33 to 49 percent in rural area. However, results of this study are not unexpected since the extend of tariff passthrough in developing countries such as Iran with limited infrastructure and incomplete markets, can be lower. Conclusions: The main important result of this study is that any change in trade policy can not completely passthrough to consumers. Factors such as noncompetitive markets, defect in markets and infrastructures may keep households away from positive effects of tariff changes in urban and rural. Our results are also consistent with Marsh (18) that expresses since the selfconsumption tariff paththrough to prices is lower in rural areas, in some rural areas, producers and consumers may be completely separated from economy. Therefore, as can be seen in this study clearly price changes in border has not affected the local prices. It is necessary for policymakers to consider factors such as market prices transmission mechanism and infrastructure conditions in trade policies.