>
Fa   |   Ar   |   En
   climate change and agricultural trade in iran: a dynamic input-output analysis  
   
نویسنده keshavarz alireaz ,farajzadeh zakariya
منبع اقتصاد و توسعه كشاورزي - 1402 - دوره : 37 - شماره : 4 - صفحه:451 -468
چکیده    In recent decades, the significance of the issue of climate change has escalated due to its intensified impacts, potentially diminishing or halting economic growth, particularly in developing countries and vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. climate change may be considered the most important and complex human challenge. among the economic effects, trade variables have been examined inadequately. accordingly, the focus of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the export and import of agricultural products in iran over a forty-year horizon, which was carried out using a dynamic input-output model. this study uses scenarios of temperature anomaly to examine the impact of climate change on different sectors of iran’s economy. the findings indicate that climate change has a significant impact on the growth of both exports and imports of agricultural products. under normal conditions without climate change, the average annual growth rate of agricultural product imports is 2.7 percent. however, this rate decreases to 1-1.8 percent when different climate change scenarios are taken into account. regarding the exports, the corresponding value is 2.75 percent, expected to be reduced to 0.55-1.8 percent.  in addition, it was found that agricultural trade will be dominated by cereals import. also, the total trade of the iranian economy will change in favor of non-agricultural commodities
کلیدواژه agricultural trade ,climate change ,input-output
آدرس shiraz university, faculty of agriculture, department of agricultural economics, iran, shiraz university, faculty of agriculture, department of agricultural economics, iran
پست الکترونیکی zakariafarajzadeh@gmail.com
 
   climate change and agricultural trade in iran: a dynamic input-output analysis  
   
Authors
Abstract    in recent decades, the significance of the issue of climate change has escalated due to its intensified impacts, potentially diminishing or halting economic growth, particularly in developing countries and vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. climate change may be considered the most important and complex human challenge. among the economic effects, trade variables have been examined inadequately. accordingly, the focus of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the export and import of agricultural products in iran over a forty-year horizon, which was carried out using a dynamic input-output model. this study uses scenarios of temperature anomaly to examine the impact of climate change on different sectors of iran’s economy. the findings indicate that climate change has a significant impact on the growth of both exports and imports of agricultural products. under normal conditions without climate change, the average annual growth rate of agricultural product imports is 2.7 percent. however, this rate decreases to 1-1.8 percent when different climate change scenarios are taken into account. regarding the exports, the corresponding value is 2.75 percent, expected to be reduced to 0.55-1.8 percent.  in addition, it was found that agricultural trade will be dominated by cereals import. also, the total trade of the iranian economy will change in favor of non-agricultural commodities
Keywords agricultural trade ,climate change ,input-output
 
 

Copyright 2023
Islamic World Science Citation Center
All Rights Reserved