تحلیل عوامل موثر بر ریسک تولید گندم در ایران

یکی از مهم ترین زنجیره های غذایی کشور که نقش مهمی در امنیت غذایی جامعه دارد، زنجیره تامین نان می باشد. تولید گندم به عنوان حلقه آغازین این زنجیره نقش مهمی در بهبود عملکرد آن دارد. همچنین گندم یکی از محصولات استراتژیک کشور بوده است که از نظر ارزش غذایی، دارای اهمیت بسیار بالایی بوده و از مهم ترین و پرمصرف ترین محصولات کشاورزی می باشد. اما طی چند دهه گذشته از یک طرف به دلیل شرایط اقلیمی و خشک‌سالی های پیاپی و از طرف دیگر، به دلیل برخی سیاست ها، تولید این محصول با نوسانات و ریسک زیادی مواجهه شده که منجر به اختلالاتی در زنجیره تامین نان گردیده است. لذا این مطالعه به تحلیل عوامل موثر بر ریسک تولید گندم در زنجیره تامین نان پرداخته است. داده‌های مورد استفاده، مربوط به دوره زمانی 1393- 1361 می‌باشد. برای شناسایی عوامل موثر بر ریسک تولید گندم، ابتدا با استفاده از یک مدل garch(2,0)، واریانس تولید گندم به عنوان معیار ریسک تعیین گردید. با توجه به انباشتگی متغیرها از مرتبه صفر و یک، از یک مدل ardl برای شناسایی عوامل موثر بر ریسک استفاده گردید. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که متغیرهای جمعیت، واردات گندم، بارندگی و سطح زیرکشت در جهت مثبت و متغیرهای قیمت تضمینی و طرح محوری گندم در جهت منفی واریانس تولید گندم (ریسک تولید گندم) را متاثر می نمایند. لذا پیشنهاد می شود ضمن استمرار قیمت تضمینی گندم، از طرح هایی نظیر طرح محوری که موجبات کاهش ریسک تولید گندم را فراهم می آورند، حمایت به عمل آمده و در جهت بهبود سیاست هایی مثل واردات گندم یا تعیین بهینه سطح زیرکشت اقدام نمود. همچنین با توجه به انگیزه پایین بخش خصوصی برای بیمه محصولات کشاورزی، بایستی دولت با افزایش سهم خود در پرداخت حق بیمه و همچنین اعطای خسارت، موجبات تمایل بیشتر گندم‌کاران به بیمه محصول را فراهم نماید.

Analyzing Factors Affecting Wheat Production Risk in Iran

Introduction: One of the most important challenges facing the world is how to feed expected population by 2050. Despite trying to increase food production over the past halfcentury, food security has been a strategic issue and an important goal of agricultural policies in many countries by challenges including population grow, increasing demand, natural resources erosion, etc. One of the critical dimensions in achieving food security is expanding food supply chain. A food supply chain can be defined as a set of interdependent components include of input supply, production, storage, processing, marketing, distribution and consumption or as the activities from ‘farm to fork’. Bread supply chain in Iran, is one of the most important food supply chain because bread is considered as the most important food source and is staple food of choice, so it has a special place in household’s nutrition pattern that supply 46.2% and 59.3% of energy for urban and rural people. Also, wheat is the raw material of bread and one of the strategic and critical crops in Iran agriculture. More than 80% of wheat consumption in Iran is predominantly used for bread. Wheat is the staple food of the national diet of Iranian households, who draw, on average, 47% of their daily calorie from wheat products. Although the population of Iran is nearly 1% of world population, it consumes roughly 2.5% of wheat produced worldwide. But, wheat is exposed to different kinds of risks such as natural disasters, including environmental concerns and climate change, pests and diseases, market vacillations and government policy that affect bread supply chain performance. So, the objective of this study is to explore factors affecting wheat production risk in bread supply chain.;Materials and Methods: In this study regression analysis was used to determine the effects of variables on wheat production risk. The used data was time series for wheat production, wheat guarantee price, harvested area, rainfall, temperature, wheat axial plan, seed consumption, wheat import and export variables during 19822014. In order to explore factors affecting wheat production risk, at first wheat production variance as the risk criterion was estimated by ARCH (2) Model. The used data in the study was time series and therefore applying Ordinary Least Squares method in estimating regression equation would lead to pseudo regression. Since based on Augmented DickyFuller method, variables were combination of I (0) and I (1), therefore Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model has been used to determine short run and long run relationship.;Results and Discussion: Results revealed that wheat production risk was affected by population, wheat imports, rainfall, wheat guaranteed prices, harvested area and wheat axial plan variables which population, import, rainfall, harvested area had a positive effect and guaranteed price and wheat axle plan had a negative effect on wheat production risk. Therefore increasing population growth, import, rainfall and harvested area would lead to risk increase while increasing price and the implementation of wheat axis plan would reduce wheat production risk. So, increasing population and consumption, have also increased wheat import in recent years. While wheat import have reduced domestic production and farmers apos; incentives that would lead to increased wheat production risk. The tools used by governments for increasing domestic production against wheat import and increasing producer’s incentives are guaranteed price and wheat axial plan. Another effective cause of wheat production risk was climate changes and extreme weather events. Farmers’ economic profit was influenced severely and even determined by climate changes and weather events. Also, during this period, wheat harvested area had nearly doubled. This growing trend has also increased the risk of wheat production.;Conclusion: wheat is a strategic crops in Iran. So, it is necessary to reduce its production risk. Wheat production risk was reduced by applying weatherbased crop insurance scheme, sustaining the guaranteed price of wheat, supporting plans such as wheat axial plan, improving policies such as wheat imports and optimizing harvested area.