شناسایی و تحلیل ساختاری عوامل کلیدی موثر بر وضعیت آیندۀ توسعۀ پایدار محله، نمونۀ مطالعه: فهادان نو، یزد

مقدمه: شهر یزد به‌عنوان یکی از شهرهای قدیمی ایران، از دهه‌‌های گذشته، رشد شتابان شهرنشینی را تجربه کرده و این مسئله، با کاهش کیفیت محیطی محلات آن همراه شده است. به‌گونه‌ای که محله‌های قدیمی و تاریخی شهر یزد به دلیل مشکلات متنوع کارکردی و کالبدی، به بافتی ناکارآمد تبدیل ‌شده‌اند که ساکنان خود را تهدید می‌کنند. با توجه به نبودِ رویکرد برنامه‌ریزی در مقیاس محلات شهری، ضروری است، به مقیاس محله در شهرسازی توجه شود؛ از این ‌رو، هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی عوامل اصلی و اثرگذار بر وضعیت آیندۀ توسعۀ محله‌ای است. روش‌شناسی: این پژوهش، ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و ماهیت آن، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. قلمرو پژوهش محلۀ فهادان نو در شهر یزد و جامعۀ هدف، جمعیت ساکن این محله است. اطلاعات لازم به‌صورت اسنادی و کتابخانه‌ای گردآوری شده است. داده‌های کیفی به‌وسیلۀ پرسشنامۀ باز و از طریق مصاحبه و بررسی اسناد به کار گرفته و داده‌های کمی به‌صورت عددی و از طریق وزن‌دهی پرسشنامه‌های دلفی تهیه شد. با بررسی شاخص‌های به‌دست‌آمده برای ارائۀ راهبردهای کلیدی به‌منظور توسعۀ آیندۀ محلۀ فهادان نو براساس اصول توسعۀ محله مبنا با استفاده از تحلیل ساختاری و رویکرد آینده‌نگاری به‌وسیلۀ نرم‌افزارmicmac انجام ‌شده است. بحث: در این پژوهش ماتریسی با ابعاد 16*16تنظیم شد. تعداد تکرارها سه بار در نظر گرفته و درجۀ پرشدگی ماتریس 93.75 درصد بیان شد که نشان‌دهندۀ تاثیر زیاد متغیرها بر یکدیگر و پراکندگی آنهاست. پراکندگی متغیرهای کلیدی و موثر بر وضعیت آیندۀ توسعۀ محلۀ فهادان نو در شهر یزد براساس اصول توسعۀ محله مبنا، نشان‌دهندۀ وضعیت پایداری سیستم است؛ همچنین 9 عامل به‌عنوان عوامل کلیدی موثر بر توسعۀ محلۀ فهادان نو در شهر یزد براساس اصول توسعۀ محله مبنا انتخاب ‌شده‌اند. نتیجه‌گیری: یافته‌های پژوهش نشان‌دهندۀ آن است که ارزش‌ها و اصول رویکرد توسعۀ محله مبنا برای برنامه‌ریزی آیندۀ محلات فرسوده و تاریخی مانند فهادان نو موثر و عوامل منتخب از عوامل اثرگذار بر وضعیت آیندۀ توسعۀ محله‌ای مانند محلۀ فهادان نو است. 

identification and structural analysis of the key factors affecting the future status of sustainable neighborhood development (case study: fahadan-e no neighborhood in yazd city)

abstract   the rapid growth of urbanization and physical growth of cities in most of the developing countries has led to the formations of cities that have faced a variety of problems, including neighborhood underdevelopment. the common approaches in planning them have not been able to develop a sustainable neighborhood. this issue has had a direct relationship with sustainable developments of the whole cities though attention has been already paid to neighborhood-based planning with the aim of integrating different groups involved or interested in planning in a collaborative manner with a decentralized and bottom-up perspective in some countries of the world.in iran, despite the historical past information of cities and urbanization, as well as the great history of urban development and importance of urban neighborhoods, especially in historical cities, &neighborhood scale& has had no place in its official urban planning system.the purposes of this research were firstly evaluating neighborhood-based planning in sustainable urban development through explanation of planning components and indicators of the neighborhood development approach and secondly identifying the effective key strategies in the future status of sustainable neighborhood development.keywords: neighborhood development, sustainable development, structural analysis, foresight, micmac softwareintroductionas one of the old cities of iran, yazd city has witnessed rapid growth of urbanization since the 1940s, while this issue has been accompanied by a decline in the environmental qualities of its neighborhoods so that its old and historical neighborhoods have undergone functional and physical problems and inconsistency, all of which have threatened their residents. due to the lack of a planning approach at the level of urban neighborhood, it is necessary to pay attention to the neighborhood scale in urban planning. therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify the key factors affecting the future status of sustainable neighborhood development. materials methodsthis research was based on an applied method and an analytical and exploratory approach in terms of nature. the research area was fahadan-e no neighborhood in yazd city and the target community was the population living in this neighborhood. for collecting documentary and library information, qualitative data were used with an open questionnaire through interviews and document reviews, while the quantitative data were prepared numerically by weighting the delphi questionnaires and examining the obtained indicators to find the key strategies for the future development of fahadan-e no neighborhood based on the principles of neighborhood-based development, structural analysis, and futuristic approach via micmac software. research findingsin this study, a matrix with the dimension of 16×16 was set up. the number of replications was considered to be 3 times and the degree of saturation of the matrix was 93.75%, which indicated the great effects of the variables on each other and their dispersion. the distribution of the key variables affecting the future development status of fahadan-e no neighborhood in yazd city based on the development principles of mabna neighborhood indicated the stability of the system. also, 9 factors were selected as the key factors affecting the development of fahadan-e no neighborhood in yazd city based on the principles of neighborhood development. discussion of results conclusionthe research findings showed that the values and principles of the neighborhood development approach could provide the basis for planning for the future of dilapidated and historic neighborhoods, such as fahadan-e no neighborhood. the selected factors were found to affect the future status of neighborhood development, such as that of fahadan-e no neighborhood. persian references:- ahghar, m., malek hosseini, a. (2018). an analysis of neighborhood-based planning indicators in sustainable urban development (case study: golpa neighborhood of hamedan city). journal of environmental studies, 12(47), 107-125.- amin naseri, a. (2006). planning of places (basics, concepts, definitions and methods). journal of urbanization essays, (19-20), 118-125.- armanshahr consulting engineers (2017). detailed plan of yazd city. yazd municipality.- ghasemi, v., esmaeili, r., rabiei, k. (2006). measurment and ranking of social capital in the townships of isfahan province. social welfare quarterly (tehran, university of welfare and rehabilitation sciences), 6(23), 220-229.- habibi, l., jafari mehrabadi, m. (2010). foresight and the future of metropolises with an emphasis on tehran metropolis.