بررسی اثر شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران

اقتصادی که بر خام فروشی و تولید ساده استوار است، هر لحظه با خطر تهدید روبرو است. لذا یکی از راهبردهای محوری در تحقق رشد و توسعه اقتصادی اتکای اقتصاد به تولید و صادرات محصولات پیچیده و مبتنی بر دانش است. بر همین اساس، هدف اصلی از نگارش این مقاله بررسی تاثیر شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران می‌باشد. برای این منظور از داده‌های فصلی مربوط به دوره زمانی 13981374 کشور ایران و روش خود رگرسیون برداری بیزین (bvar) برای بررسی ارتباط میان شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی و سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی استفاده شده است. نتایج مدل حاکی از آن است که شوک شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی تاثیر منفی دارد زیرا پیچیدگی اقتصادی نیازمند افزایش تعداد وظایفی است که باید به صورت تخصصی در فرآیند تولید انجام شود، لذا افزایش شاخص پیچیدگی در اقتصاد ایران بدون ارتقای زیرساخت های لازم می‌تواند خطر شکست فرآیند تولید را افزایش دهد. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد شوک شاخص فساد و شوک تورم اثر منفی بر سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی دارد. شوک شاخص آزادی مالی، درجه باز بودن تجاری و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی تاثیر مثبت بر سطح تولید ناخالص داخلی دارد. در حالی که تاثیر شوک شاخص آزادی سرمایه‌گذاری بر تولید ناخالص داخلی بسیار ناچیز است.

the effect of economic complexity index on the level of the gross domestic product of iran

aims and introduction: an economy that is based on simple production is under threat every moment. therefore, one of the central strategies in the realization of economic growth and development is to rely on the production and export of complex and knowledge-based products. in complex societies, people with different knowledge must be able to communicate and combine their knowledge to produce a product. economic complexity in relation to the composition of a country’s products expresses a set of abilities to combine knowledge and skills. therefore, societies lacking this set of abilities fail to produce complex products. accordingly, the main goal of this article is to investigate the effect of economic complexity index on iran’s gdp.methodology: in this research, seasonal data over the period 1995-2019 have been used in iran, and bayesian vector auto-regression (bvar) model with minnesota prior distribution has been used to investigate the effect of economic complexity on the level of gdp. the bayesian vector auto-regression model provides more reliable predictions on the relationship between economic complexity and the level of gdp, due to the reduction of model parameters and the consideration of prior functions.results and discussion: the results of the instantaneous reaction function of the level of gross domestic product (gdp) to the shock of the economic complexity index (eci) show that this shock has a negative reaction on the level of gdp. therefore, the impact of the economic complexity index shock on the level of gdp is negative in the long term. in addition, the results show that the financial freedom index (fis) shock increases the level of gdp in the long term. the response of gdp to the shock of the investment freedom index (inv) is also very weak and almost neutral during 10 periods. the reaction of the gdp level to the shock of the business freedom index (bus) is negative. the effect of the corruption index shock (cor) on the gdp level is negative, and the reaction of the gdp level to the bank credits to the private sector (crdt) shock indicates the negative effect of this shock on the gdp level. the reaction of the gdp level to the inflation shock (inf) is negative during the period under review. the effect of the shock of trade openness (opn) on the level of gdp is positive and low during 10 periods. this means that the trade openness shock increases the level of gdp in the long run.  in addition, the reaction of the gdp level to the domestic direct investment (fdi) shock is positive. the results of the variance analysis also show that the shock variables of the economic freedom index (econ), foreign direct investment (fdi) and inflation (inf), have the greatest impact on the gdp level, respectively. the variable shock of investment freedom index (inv) also has the least effect on the dependent variable.