رابطه بین گذار به سالخوردگی جمعیت و آلودگی هوا در ایران؛ کاربردی از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته سری زمانی

بدون تردید، ویژگی های کمّی و کیفی جمعیت و مولفه‌های آن، نقش بسیار مهمی در وضعیت اقتصادی، رشد و پیشرفت هر جامعه‌ای دارد و می‌تواند به طور مستقیم و یا غیرمستقیم بر بسیاری از ابعاد آن جامعه اثر داشته باشد. بر اساس ادبیات نظری و تجربی اقتصادی، ساختار سنی جمعیت، از عوامل اثرگذار بر آلودگی های زیست‌محیطی است. در این مقاله، با استفاده از روش gmm سری‌زمانی، طی دوره زمانی 1399-1361 به بررسی رابطه بین گذار به سالخوردگی جمعیت و آلودگی هوا پرداخته شده و برآورد مدل، نشان می دهد که گذار ساختار سنی جمعیت به مرحله سالخوردگی، با کاهش آلودگی هوا همراه است. آن طور که پیش‌بینی شده، کشور ایران از سال 2030 به بعد، یک جمعیت سالخورده است و بر اساس نتیجه مطالعه حاضر، با افزایش جمعیت سالخورده، می توان انتظار داشت که آلودگی هوا و تخریب محیط‌زیست کاهش یابد. فرضیه زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس، با در نظر گرفتن ساختار سنی جمعیت در بازه زمانی مورد بررسی تحقیق، تایید می شود. سایر نتایج مطالعه، نشان از آن دارد که شهرنشینی، صنعتی‌شدن، آزادی تجاری و آلودگی دوره قبل، اثر مثبت و معنی داری بر آلودگی هوا دارند. 

the relationship between population aging and air pollution in iran: application of gmm

introductionnowadays, environmental problems, especially air pollution, are one of the major issues in the world’s metropolises with increasing its dimensions and side effects. humans are one of the main sources of air pollution. the age structure of the population is an important indicator in the progress of societies. it can be said that one of the effective factors in economic growth and long-term socio-economic development plans is the age structure of the population (youth or aging population). in working-age (provided that the labor market has the capacity to absorb more workforce in activities), increasing labor supply leads to economic growth. in general, the age structure of population is important because economic activities and energy consumption vary by age or stage of life. on the other hand, the age of household head is related to household size (people over 65 usually have smaller households than middle-aged people). studies conducted in iran have mostly focused on examining kuznets’ environmental hypothesis, the impact of income and population changes on carbon dioxide emissions, and so far have not examined the effect of aging on carbon dioxide emissions. therefore, this article examines the effect of aging on air pollution in iran. this article uses the gmm to investigate the dynamic effect of population aging on air pollution during 1981-2020.methodologyto collect information for this study, a documentary method was used. the research was conducted based on annual data from 1982 to 2020 in iran’s economy. eviews software was used to estimate the model. it should be noted that data related to research variables were extracted from various sources such as the central bank of iran statistical center of iran, and energy balance sheets.to estimate the model, a time series econometric method called gmm was used because the model used in this study is dynamic and satisfies generalized moment conditions. in fact, gmm is used for time series models that are linear and also provide generalized moment conditions and instrumental variable properties. this method have many advantages.results and discussionin this study, the impact of population aging on air pollution was investigated using the gmm in iran during the period of 1981-2020. the estimation of the model indicates that increasing the age of the population and the transition of the age structure of the population to the aging stage has a negative effect on air pollution. as it is predicted, iran will face the problem of population aging in the next few years. according to the results, with increasing population, it can be expected that air pollution and environmental degradation will decrease.