تحلیل و بررسی تاثیر خصوصی‌سازی بر آلودگی محیط ‌زیست در ایران: کاربرد روش tvp-var

مطالعاتی که در رابطه ‌با خصوصی‏سازی در ایران انجام شده، تنها جنبه اقتصادی خصوصی‏سازی را در نظر گرفته‏، و هدف اصلی از خصوصی‏سازی را افزایش کارآیی و بهره‏وری اقتصادی عنوان کرده‏اند و به دیگر جنبه‏های آن مانند جنبه‏های زیست‏محیطی، چندان توجه نشده است. هدف از مطالعه حاضر، بررسی تاثیر خصوصی‏سازی بر آلودگی محیط ‏زیست در ایران است. برای این منظور، مکانیزم‏های اثرگذاری خصوصی‏سازی بر آلودگی محیط‌زیست تحلیل شده و از داده های سری زمانی سال‏های 99-1370، روش خودرگرسیون برداری با پارامترهای قابل تغییر طی زمان (tvp-var) به‌ عنوان کار تجربی بهره گرفته شده، و از میزان انتشار آلاینده‏ زیست محیطی دی‌اکسیدکربن، به‌عنوان شاخص‏ آلودگی و از ارزش واگذاری‏های سهام و دارایی‏های بخش دولتی به بخش خصوصی، به‌عنوان شاخص خصوصی‏سازی استفاده به عمل آمده است. نتایج پژوهش حاضر، نشان می‏دهد که با وجود اجرای ناقص، غیرعلمی و سیاست‏زده خصوصی‏سازی در ایران، خصوصی‏سازی، سبب کاهش انتشار گاز دی‌اکسیدکربن در ایران شده است.

analysis and investigation of the impact ofprivatization on environmental pollution in iran:application of tvp-var method

aim and introductionnowadays, the environmental impacts of human activities are considered one of the limitations of economic growth. developing countries are facing the problem of environmental degradation, which hinders economic growth and development. on the other hand, the process of economic development of countries has become one of the environmental challenges and one of the most critical concerns of policymakers over the years. due to the significant role of the government in the economy of the countries, government economic enterprises are also sources of pollution along with the private sector. the main reason is the unprecedented concentration of greenhouse gases, which leads to the intense and continuous production of carbon dioxide gas. in addition to being a dangerous factor for human health, air pollution also has an economic burden on societies, which causes a decrease in the quality of life and the welfare of society. thus, developing countries, including iran, are facing the problem of environmental degradation. privatization can be a helpful policy and a government tool to influence economic productivity and social welfare through ecological pollution control. most domestic research on privatisation's impact on environmental pollution has been interview-based and qualitative. for this reason, this research aims to investigate the impact of privatization on carbon dioxide emissions in iran using the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (tvp – var) model. the model is considered dynamic due to the time factor, and the impact of privatization on environmental pollution in iran can be accurately observed in different years.methodologythe present study investigates the impact of privatization on environmental pollution in iran during 1991-2020 using the data of the privatization organization, the central bank of iran, the world bank, the globalization index website, and the energy balance sheet of the ministry of energy. furthermore, the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (tvp – var) model has been used to study the relationship between variables. in this method, the optimal interval length of the model was determined first. then, the data durability was checked through the unit root test of zivot and andrews (1992), considering the structural break. the next step examined cointegration tests, serial correlation, variance heteroscedasticity, and polynomial inverse root circle tests. in the end, the results of the impulse response function of the tvp – var model were presented. for this purpose, the emission rate of carbon dioxide has been used as an index of pollution, and the value of the transfer of shares and assets from the public sector to the private sector has been considered an index of privatization. the tvp – var method, unlike the vector autoregression model, allows the calculation of variable coefficients over time. due to changing conditions, structural break and cyclical changes were observed in time series in macroeconomics. as a result, the tvp – var model enabled us to accurately obtain the nature of the economic structure’s temporal changes.findingsin this research, the mechanisms of the impact of privatization on environmental pollution have been analyzed, and the time series data of 1991-2020 and the tvp-var model have been used as experimental work. the present research findings show that despite the incomplete, unscientific, and politicized implementation of privatization in iran, privatization has reduced the emission of carbon dioxide gas in iran.