بررسی تاثیر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و نرخ ارز بر گردشگری در ایران: شواهدی از رویکرد nardl

امروزه، توسعه گردشگری مورد توجه برنامه‌ریزان اقتصاد دولتی و خصوصی همۀ کشورها قرار گرفته است. توسعه صنعت گردشگری برای کشورهای در حال توسعه که با معضلاتی همچون نرخ بیکاری بالا، محدودیت منابع ارزی و اقتصاد تک‌محصولی مواجه اند، دارای اهمیت فراوانی است. در کشورهایی که برای توسعۀ اقتصادی با محدودیت منابع داخلی روبه‌رو هستند، استفاده از منابع خارجی برای سرمایه‌گذاری و افزایش درآمدهای گردشگری، امری ضروری است. لذا باتوجه ‌به اهمیت موضوع، در پژوهش حاضر نیز همگام با مطالعات دیگر، قصد داریم تا به بررسی تاثیر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم‌خارجی و نرخ ارز بر گردشگری در ایران، طی بازه زمانی 2019-1981 بپردازیم. برای این منظور، از روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی (nardl) استفاده شده، و نتایج، حاکی از تاثیر نامتقارن سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بر گردشگری بوده؛ به‌طوری‌که در کوتاه‌مدت و بلند‌مدت، تاثیر تغییرات مثبت و منفی متغیر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر گردشگری، و نیز تاثیر نرخ ارز بر گردشگری، مثبت و معنی‌دار است.

investigating the impact of foreign direct investment and exchange rates on tourism in iran: evidence from the nardl approach

aim and introduction tourism is a socio-economic phenomenon that begins with an economic decisionabout using leisure time and savings and has economic aspects such as investment, consumption, employment, export, and government income. currently, tourism isone of the factors that provides income in the global economy and is becoming anessential factor for the investments and development of countries. thedevelopment of this industry is very important in developing countries, such asiran, which are facing problems such as unemployment, lack of foreign exchangeresources, and a single-product economy. tourism is closely related to foreigndirect investment, because tourism development has an urgent need for foreigndirect investment in the tourism sector. internationalization is a phenomenon thatlinks tourism to foreign direct investment. foreign direct investment helps to thefinancing, technology transfer, infrastructure development, job creation, andeconomic growth. along with several benefits that foreign direct investmentbrings to the host country, it also plays a prominent role in developing the tourismindustry. tourism industry, like many other industries, is disturbed by thefluctuations of the currency market. this disturbance in the tourism market ismuch more visible than in other industries, because the tourism industry is directlyrelated to exchange rate changes. considering that the development of the tourismindustry is very important for developing countries like iran, the main purpose ofthis research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of foreign direct investmentand exchange rate on tourism in iran.methodologythe research model in this study to investigate the asymmetric effects of foreigndirect investment on tourism was taken from the study of munir and iftikhar(2021). since the sanctions influence iran's economy in different periods andconsequently on is the number of incoming tourists to iran, in this study, thesanctions variable was added to the model.tr  f (fdi,er, inf, san)where, tr (number of incoming tourists), fdi (foreign direct investment), er(real exchange rate), inf (inflation rate), and san (sanction index). in the modelestimation process, the data was extracted from the world bank and the international monetary fund on an annual basis during the period of 1981-2019, and data of sanctions index was taken from the study of iranmanesh et al. (1400).in addition, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (nardl) method was used to estimate the above model.results and discussionin this study, before performing the cointegration test, the degree of integration of the variables was determined by using two unit root tests of augmented dickey-fuller and zivot-andrews. the results of the unit root test showed that in the dickey-fuller test, all variables, except for the inflation rate, are integrated of order one. also, in the zivot-andrews test, the variables of foreign direct investment and the inflation rate are integrated in zero order, and the rest are integrated of order one. after performing the unit root test, the bounds cointegration test was performed to check the existence of long-term relationships between the variables. the results of this test showed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. after ensuring the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables, wald's test was used to perform the short-term and long-term asymmetry effects. the results showed that the effect of the foreign direct investment on the tourism is asymmetric in the short- and long-term. by identifying the existence of a long-term relationship and confirming the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment on tourism in the short and long term, the final estimation of the nardl model was carried out. the estimation results of the model show the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment in the short- and long-term on tourism. so that in the short- and long- term, the effect of the foreign direct investment on tourism has been positive and significant. also, the results showed that the effect of the exchange rate on tourism in the short- and long- term is positive and significant. finally, to ensure the stability of the model, cusum and cusumsq tests were performed. the results indicate that the estimated model is stable.