طراحی سیستم خبره برای ارزیابی ریسک اکتشاف و ‏توسعه میادین نفت و گاز

ﻫﺪف: ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ رﯾﺴﮏ اﮐﺘﺸﺎف و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﮥ ﻣﯿﺎدﯾﻦ ﻧﻔﺖ و ﮔﺎز ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎی ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦﮐﻨﻨﺪه در ﺗﻮﺳﻌﮥ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎی ﻧﻔﺖﺧﯿﺰ ﻣﻄﺮح ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﯾﮏ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺧﺒﺮه ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﯾﮑﺮد ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﻓﺎزی ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺿﺮورت: از ﺧﺼﺎﯾﺺ ﺑﺎرز ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی اﮐﺘﺸﺎف و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﯿﺎدﯾﻦ ﻧﻔﺖ و ﮔﺎز، ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاری، ﺳﻮدآوری و ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽ ﺑﺎﻻ، ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻻی رﯾﺴﮏ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﭼﺮا ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎﯾﯽ در ﻣﻌﺮض ﺗﻌﺪادی از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻧﺎﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ زﻣﯿﻦﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ، ﻓﻨﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و ﻏﯿﺮه ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد. ﻟﺬا، ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖ-ﻫﺎی ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﺳﻨﺘﯽ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ، ﺿﺮورت دارد ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎی ﻓﻌﺎل در اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮزه ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت آﮔﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ و اﻧﺴﺠﺎمﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ از ﯾﮏ روﯾﮑﺮد ﻧﻮﯾﻦ در ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی، از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ، ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺧﺒﺮه ﻓﺎزی ﺑﻬﺮهﻣﻨﺪ ﮔﺮدﻧﺪ. روش ﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ: ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ از ﺣﯿﺚ ﺟﻬﺖﮔﯿﺮی، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی و ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ راﻫﺒﺮد ﺟﻤﻊآوری دادهﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ- ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﯾﺠﺎد ﭘﺎﯾﮕﺎه داﻧﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻫﺴﺘﮥ ﻣﺮﮐﺰی ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺧﺒﺮه، ﮐﻪ دارای ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎری از ﻗﻮاﻋﺪ اﮔﺮ-آﻧﮕﺎه ﺑﻮده، از ﻧﻈﺮات ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﺎﻻدﺳﺘﯽ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ و ﮔﺎز اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮه ﺟﺴﺘﻦ از ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﻓﺎزی ﺟﻬﺖ ﮐﻤّﯽﺳﺎزی ﻧﻈﺮات، اﻣﮑﺎن ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزی روﯾﮑﺮد اﺳﺘﺪﻻل و ﻣﻨﻄﻖ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ. و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ، ﭘﺲ از ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﺬﮐﻮر ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﻣﺘﻠﺐ، ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﺠﺬورات ﺧﻄﺎﻫﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺷﺒﺎﻫﺖ ﻧﻈﺮات ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ و ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎی ﭘﯿﺸﯿﻨﮥ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع و ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪﯾﺎﻓﺘﮥ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد، ﻫﻔﺖ دﺳﺘﻪ رﯾﺴﮏ در ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی اﮐﺘﺸﺎف و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﮥ ﻣﯿﺎدﯾﻦ ﻧﻔﺖ و ﮔﺎز ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ، ﮐﻪ ﻣﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﺑﺮ 48 ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﭘﺲ از اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ اوﻟﯿﻪ، اﺛﺮﮔﺬاری 42 ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﺄﯾﯿﺪ و ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان دادهﻫﺎی ورودی در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻨﺪ. ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺷﺪه دارای ﻫﻔﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﻓﺎزی ﻓﺮﻋﯽ و ﯾﮏ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﻓﺎزی ﮐﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻈﺮﺳﻨﺠﯽ از ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن ﺗﻌﺪاد 4932 ﻗﺎﻋﺪه ﺑﺮای ﻫﺸﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﮥ اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ، دادهﻫﺎی ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﯿﺎدﯾﻦ ﻧﻔﺘﯽ در ﺟﻨﻮب ﮐﺸﻮر وارد ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺷﺪ، ﮐﻪ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﺠﺬورات ﺧﻄﺎ (0/00467)، اﺧﺘﻼف ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻧﺎﭼﯿﺰی ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮی: ﻃﺒﻖ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎی ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ اﻋﺘﺒﺎر و ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺧﺒﺮه ﻓﺎزی ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺷﺪه، ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ذﻫﻨﯽ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن در ﺧﺼﻮص ﻣﯿﺰان رﯾﺴﮏ ﯾﮏ ﻣﯿﺪان ﻧﻔﺘﯽ در ﺟﻨﻮب ﮐﺸﻮر، ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺧﺒﺮه ﻓﺎزی ﺑﻮد. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ، اﯾﻦ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺧﺒﺮه ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ و دارای ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﺟﺮاء در اﻧﻮاع ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی اﮐﺘﺸﺎف و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﯿﺎدﯾﻦ ﻧﻔﺖ و ﮔﺎز ﻧﯿﺰ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻟﺬا، ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاری ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز در ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﮐﻪ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ روﯾﮑﺮدﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﺳﻨﺘﯽ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻮد.

designing an expert system for risk assessment in exploration & development oil ‎and gas fields

objective: the present study has been designed to evaluate the risk of exploration and development of oil and gas fields, which is one of the most important determining parameters in the economic development of oil-rich countries, an expert system using the fuzzy inference system approach.methodology: the present study is descriptive-analytical in terms of orientation, use and in terms of data collection strategy. in order to create a knowledge base as the core of the expert system, which has a structure of if - then rules, the opinions of experts in the upstream oil and gas industry have been used. also, by using the fuzzy inference system to quantify opinions, it is possible to simulate the human reasoning and logic approach in conditions of uncertainty. finally, after designing the system using matlab software, in order to validate the system, mean squares error (mse) index was used to measure the similarity between the opinions of the system and experts.conclusion: according to the findings related to the validity and efficiency of the designed fuzzy expert system, experts' predictions about the risk of an oil field in the south of the country were similar to those of expert system. therefore, this expert system is efficient and has the capability to explore and develop oil and gas fields. as a result, given the amount of investment required in such projects, it is suggested that such approaches replace the classical decision-making models in conditions of uncertainty.originality: due to the limitations of the classical models of decision making in conditions of uncertainty, in this study, by designing a fuzzy expert system, a new and integrated approach to risk assessment of oil and gas exploration and development projects is presented.