برآورد الگو و پیش بینی انتشار تلفن همراه در ایران

Mobile phones were introduced in 1992-1993 for the first time in iran. it becomes the dominant means of accessing communications. at the end of 2007-2008, the number of mobile subscribers in iran was about 35 millions while there were 25 million subscribers for fixed line in the same year. since the introduction of mobiles in the country, the increase in the number of mobile phones was remarkable in comparison with fixed line. the main goal of this paper is to assess future trends and analyze the pattern and rate of adoption of mobile phones in iran. in this paper, it is assumed that the increase in mobile-density over time in iran follows s-shaped curve. based on this finding, the s-shaped models are used to model and forecast the development of mobile-density in iran. this paper uses logistic and gompertz models in order to model mobile diffusion in iran and then compares these two models and finally chooses the best one. the results show that mobile-density in iran will increase from 48.93 percent in2009-2010 to 80.71 and 117.48 percent in 2013-2014 and 2021-2022, respectively.