سنجش توانایی بالقوه جذب عبور بار از کریدورهای حمل‌ونقل بین‌المللی با تمرکز ویژه بر ایران

ایران از جمله کشورهایی به شمار می‌رود که به دلیل قرارگیری در موقعیت جغرافیایی مناسب و تقاطع مسیرهای بین‌المللی همچنین دسترسی به آب‌های آزاد از مزیت عبور بار و ترانزیت برخوردار بوده است. ایران با منابع سرشار از انرژی، در منطقه خاورمیانه دارای جایگاه ژئوپلیتیکی، ژئواکونومی و ژئواستراتژی خاص است. در قلمروهای جدید ژئواکونومیک، ایران در مرکز بیضی استراتژی انرژی قرار گرفته که در میان سه حوزه مهم مصرف‌کننده انرژی یعنی اروپا، چین و هند واقع شده است اتخاذ سیاست‌های درست جهت استفاده از این موقعیت ژئواستراتژیک، موجب تنوع و افزایش منابع درآمدی و کاهش وابستگی اقتصادی به فروش نفت، افزایش امنیت، ارتقاء روابط سیاسی و اجتماعی می‌گردد. به همین علت، مطالعه‌ی کریدورهای حمل‌ونقل به‌عنوان یکی از موضوعات مهم برای استفاده از این موقعیت، ضروری است. این پژوهش، با توسعه‌ی مدل جذابیت کریدورهای حمل‌ونقل که شامل فاکتورهای هزینه، زمان، قابلیت اطمینان، امنیت، انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن، شاخص عملکرد لجستیک و شاخص جهانی‌شدن است، جذابیت کریدورهای حمل‌ونقل عبوری از ایران را نسبت به کریدورهای حمل‌ونقل رقیب، برای ده گروه کالا و یکصد و دوازده مبدا - مقصد، محاسبه نموده و در نهایت، با تدوین سناریوها، تاثیر  بهبود در معیارهای مدل سنجش جذابیت کریدورهای حمل‌ونقل را ارزیابی می‌نماید. نتایج نشانمی‌دهد که ضعف مسیرهای عبوری از ایران، نسبت به سایر مسیرها در هزینه و زمان عبور از مرز است. همچنین، بهبود شاخص عملکرد لجستیک و افزایش سهم گونه‌ی ریلی در کریدورهای حمل‌ونقل ، بیشترین تاثیر را بر افزایش جذابیت مسیرها دارد.

development of a framework for assessing the potential of attracting international freight from transportation corridors with a focus on iran

extended abstract introduction iran’s strategic geographical position provides a significant transit advantage, positioning it as a crucial crossing point for multiple international corridors. this location offers substantial opportunities for iran to generate foreign exchange income and stimulate economic growth. to fully capitalize on this potential, an in-depth examination of trade corridors is essential. this research investigates the potential of international freight and cargo transit through iran by developing a corridor attractiveness measurement model. the study compares transport corridors passing through iran with competing corridors for ten commodity groups across 112 origin-destination pairs. additionally, scenarios are developed to assess how improvements in model criteria can enhance the attractiveness of these corridors. methodologythis study identifies key criteria influencing transit corridor attractiveness, including cost, transit time, reliability, security, co₂ emissions, the logistics performance index (lpi), and the globalization index. based on these criteria, a corridor attractiveness model evaluates the appeal of routes between 112 origin-destination pairs for ten categories of goods. the model also examines the impact of parameter improvements through scenario development. findingsthe findings are organized into several key insights:  main competitor of the north-south transport corridorthe north-south transport corridor faces strong competition from sea routes for cargo transit from india to europe. a significant disadvantage of iran’s route compared to sea routes lies in the quality and time required for border crossings. the iran route increases transit costs by 50% and time by 20% compared to the sea route for connecting india to eastern europe. impact of logistics performance index (lpi) improvement improving the logistics performance index (lpi) has a more pronounced impact on transport corridors connecting neighboring countries than on other corridors. iran’s logistics performance is higher than some neighboring countries, providing a competitive advantage. importance of economic factors economic factors, particularly time and cost, are the most critical criteria across all product groups. route attractiveness varies based on the sender’s preferences and the type of goods being transported—some prioritize lower shipping rates, while others require faster delivery times.   effect of economic globalization index improvement enhancing the economic globalization index has a greater impact on regional connections than on broader international trade routes. however, its effect on time-sensitive goods is minimal, indicating limited influence on trade involving goods requiring faster transit. increase in railway utilizationexpanding railway use positively impacts safety, reliability, cost, and co₂ emissions across corridors. improved security, reliability, and railway costs benefit the shipper, while reduced carbon emissions offer social advantages. analysis the research underscores that experts in transit and transportation identify border processing costs and time as the primary areas for improvement on routes passing through iran. weight analysis reveals that economic factors like time and cost are vital across all product groups. route attractiveness shifts based on the shipper’s preferences and the type of goods. enhancing each criterion significantly improves the attractiveness of routes through iran, particularly for connecting regional countries. conclusion the study concludes that the primary challenges for routes passing through iran are the costs and time associated with border crossings. however, enhancing the attractiveness criteria can significantly increase the appeal of these routes, especially for time-sensitive goods. simultaneous improvements across all criteria could boost corridor attractiveness by 5–9%, representing a notable enhancement.