نئوجکسونیسم؛ الگوی سیاست خارجی امریکا در دوران دونالد ترامپ

در شرایط کنونی، تحلیل سیاست خارجی ایالات متحده‌ی امریکا در قیاس با گذشته، با پیچیدگی‌ها و عدم قطعیت‌های بیشتری همراه است. دولت این کشور به رهبری دونالد ترامپ با شعارهای ضدنظام و تغییر وضعیت موجود، قدرت را در دست گرفته است و تلاش می‌کند تا با برهم زدن رویه‌های سنتی دولتهای گذشته در امریکا، رویکرد تازه‌ای را در ارتباط با موضوعات داخلی و خارجی اتخاذ نماید. آنچه در این میان مشخص است اینکه، دولت کنونی امریکا تاکنون فاقد یک الگوی سیاست خارجی مشخص و منسجم بوده است، که همین امر تحلیل رفتارهای خارجی این کشور را با پیچیدگی بیشتری همراه می‌سازد. اما با این وجود، این گفته بدان معنا نیست که نمی‌توان منطق رفتاری رهبران جدید امریکا را شناسایی و تحلیل نمود؛ بلکه فهم رفتارهای جدید نیازمند دقت و مطالعه‌ی بیشتر می‌باشد. از این رو، مقاله‌ی حاضر تلاش کرده است تا از طریق بررسی بسترهای داخلی و بین‌المللی که موجبات پیروزی دونالد ترامپ را در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری 2016 امریکا فراهم آوردند، به این پرسش اصلی‌ پاسخ دهد که سیاست خارجی امریکا در دوران ریاست‌جمهوری دونالد ترامپ بر مبنای چه الگویی قابل ادراک بوده و نوعِ نگرش و رویکرد آن در حوزۀ سیاست خارجی چگونه خواهد بود؟ پرسش‌های فرعی مقاله عبارتند از اینکه؛ در میان مدت، سیاست خارجی امریکا در رابطه با جمهوری اسلامی چگونه خواهد بود؟ و ج.ا.ایران چه راهکارهای احتمالی را در مواجهه با آن می‌تواند در پیش گیرد؟

NeoJacksonian Foreign Policy of Donald Tramp

IntroductionDonald Trump as president of the US has adopted a revisionist approach in regards with domestic and foreign policies, which has increased uncertainties about the US strategy in world affairs. Therefore, understanding bases of his administration's attitudes toward foreign policy is so crucial for predicting changes in international and regional levels. The article tries to explain the roots of Trump's success in 2016 presidential elections and behavioral logic of the new administration in foreign policy. The main argument is: the US foreign policy under the Donald Trump administration could be categorized and explained in the context of neoJacksonism.MethodologyThis research has a historical comparative methodology to show roots of Trump’s strategy based on a comparison with different traditions of the US foreign policy. Also in other part of the article a descriptive analytical approach has been adopted to analyze our findings in regards with Tramp’s success in 2016 presidential election. FindingsTrump has been successful to bring major part of the middle class, heavy industries workers, less educated people and white ethnoreligious groups to his camp. Majority of pro Trump people believe that the foreigners have been weakened the US and consider them as threats to their jobs & also to American values. According to our statistical findings despite of considerable socioeconomic improvements in the time of Obama, the American middle and working classes had dissatisfied with their status and have joined to a kind of antisystem movement which has supported Trump. In regards with the US foreign affairs, although it has not had such an important role in 2016 presidential campaigns, we found three main pillars for Trump’s foreign policy as follows: America first, inward looking strategy and revisionism in the US foreign affairs traditions; which means revision in the US international commitments and obligations based on isolationism. AnalysisTransition from Fordism to postFordism and internationalization of State in the era of social atomism and risk society has been decreased the US State capacity to settlement of social conflicts. Such a situation has become more critical by and through domination of financial /casino capitalism which has created a 1% society. In this context the middle and working classes do not tolerate pressures of economic crises and join to any antisystem figure, leader, group, movement, and etc. The 2016 presidential election in the US has been a consequence of these socio economic changes. Donald Trump as an output of this process has quite naturally adopted an isolationist inward looking foreign policy.ConclusionThe 2016 presidential election showed us traditional political parties which have dominated on the US politics for decades do not able to save their monopolistic supremacy anymore. In these circumstances different social classes which had not have a voice in the US politics have supported Donald Trump. In accordance with domestic politics, the US foreign policy has been shift from Obama’s regional integration, multilateralism and internationalism to Tramp’s isolationism and unilateralism in the context of a neoJacksonian foreign policy.