نقش مدیریت ریسک زلزله در کاهش آسیب‌پذیری نواحی روستایی با تاکید بر دیدگاه ساکنان محلی (مطالعۀ موردی: بخش ایزدخواست شهرستان زرین‌دشت)

اهداف:پژوهش حاضر با هدف کاهش آسیب پذیری جوامع روستایی در برابر پیامدهای ناشی از زلزله با تاکید بر مدیریت ریسک و براساس دیدگاه ساکنان محلی انجام شده است.روش:نوع تحقیق کاربردی است و روش استفاده شده توصیفی- تحلیلی است. برای گرد آوری داده ها از روش های کتابخانه ای و میدانی (پرسش نامه و مصاحبه) استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش خانوارهای ساکن در روستاهای بخش ایزدخواست واقع در شهرستان زرین دشت (استان فارس) تشکیل می دهد که از این میان 350 سرپرست خانوار از طریق فرمول کوکران به روش نمونه گیری تصادفی ساده به عنوان نمونه آماری انتخاب شدند. برای تجزیه وتحلیل داده ها از آزمون های t تک نمونه ای، فریدمن و رگرسیون چندمتغیره و برای رتبه بندی روستاها در چارچوب مدیریت ریسک مدل پرومتی استفاده شده است.یافته ها/ نتایج:یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که میزان آسیب پ ذیری در برابر زلزله در هر چهار بعد اقتصادی، اجتماعی، نهادی و کالبدی-محیطی کمتر از حد متوسط است. براساس آزمون فریدمن، بیشترین میانگین رتبه ای به ابعاد کالبدی-محیطی و کمترین آن به ابعاد نهادی اختصاص یافته است و نتایج حاصل از آزمون رگرسیون نیز نشان داد که نماگر مقاومت ساختمان ها در برابر زلزله بیشترین تاثیر را بر کاهش آسیب پذیری سکونتگاه های روستایی داشت.نتیجه گیری: مدیریت ریسک،می تواند علاوه بر آگاه کردن مردم با اثرهای ناشی از وقوع زلزله، برای پیشگیری از وقوع این نوع بحران ها و به حداقل رساندن خسارات مالی و جانی در محدوده موردمطالعه وارد عمل شود. براساس نتایج یادشده، برای کاهش آسیب در برابر ریسک زلزله باید به روستاهایی که در مسیر گسل ها قرار دارند، توجه ویژه ای شود.

The Role Earthquake Risk Management in Reducing the Vulnerability of Rural Areas, emphasizing on the Residents’ Perspectives (Case Study: Izadkhast District, Zarrindasht)

Extended Abstract1. IntroductionEarthquakes are natural disasters that take place during a short time and may bring about considerable damage. In Iran, rural areas are significantly subject to damages caused by earthquakes. Due to their close connections to the natural environment and limited capacity against environmental threats, rural communities are more vulnerable to environmental risks such as earthquakes. Subsequently, during the past few decades, special attention has been paid to the identification and presentation of essential strategies to confront the earthquake phenomenon in different scales, at both global and domestic levels, in the form of new management methods such as risk management. Izadkhast region of Zarrindasht town is located in Chah Reza Fault, in the middle of the high seismic area of Zagros; therefore, the region is significantly subject to earthquakes. The occurrence of this natural disasters have brought about considerable damages to human settlements in this region, particularly in rural areas, times and times again. As a result, the present study seeks to examine the views of local settlers and investigate the vulnerability status of rural communities to earthquake risks; to this end, it is attempted to provide answers to this question: Have risk management indices been effective on reducing the vulnerability of rural settlements?2. Theoretical FrameworkIn the recent years, there has been a paradigm shift in the majority of studies on disasters and risks from “reducing damages and casualties” to a more comprehensive model involving risk management based upon social systems and social problemsolving approaches. It should be noted that the science of risk management has offered numerous potential and practical capabilities in this regard; consequently, it is considered as a necessity with regards to the subject at hand. In a study conducted as a comprehensive plan for earthquake risk management in Mumbai, Sinha, Goyal, Shinde and Meena (2012) assessed the risks and the reduction of damages. Their results showed the significant effect of construction type and economic characteristics on reducing the vulnerability of the region.Wenco and Ling (2013) evaluated the earthquake risks and efficient management strategies of earthquake risks for the Heitech Region in Taiwan. According to the results, an efficient risk management strategy should be designed in order to calculate the total costs of annual earthquake risks. At the same time, Dixit, Yatabe, Dahal and Bhandary (2013) examined the initiatives for earthquake risk management at Kathmandu Valley and showed that the major factors that contribute to the vulnerability of the region to earthquakes include lack of trained personnel, building inspectors, engineers and architects to ensure earthquake safety improvement.In Iran, Roumiani, Einali and Salehi Mishani (2015) investigated the role of management in the development of rural communities in confronting earthquake risks in Zagheh Village, Khoramabad Town. Based on their results and the views of rural authorities, the presence of weaknesses in economic capacities and strengths and hence, the low income of rural residents at the region have reduced their ability in strengthening the houses located at their settlements.MethodThe present applied study was conducted using the descriptiveanalytical method. In order to obtain the people’s opinions to assess risk management at earthquakestricken areas, document and field studies were carried out using instruments including questionnaires and interviews. The total population of the study included 2,381 rural households living in Izadkhast region and seven villages located at the vicinity of fault including Mazaijan, Darreh Shour, Golkouyeh, Dehno, Chah Zebar, Bon Dasht, and Panj Chah. The sample population was calculated as 350 households using Cochran’s formula. Data were analyzed via descriptive and inferential methods such as onesample t test, Freidman, and multivariable regression.Results and DiscussionAccording to the results obtained from the examination of the vulnerability status of rural communities to earthquake risks and Friedman test, the calculated mean value was below average and the significance level was below 0.05. Therefore, the vulnerability of the sample community to earthquakes is confirmed as significant. The results obtained from the examination of the most important factors of rural settlements’ vulnerability to earthquakes according to Friedman test suggested a significant difference among the mean values of economic, social, institutional, and physicalenvironmental vulnerability variables at 0.01 alpha level. Meanwhile, the highest and lowest rating averages belonged to physicalenvironmental and institutional variables, respectively. The regression method was used to examine the effect of risk management indices on reducing vulnerability. The results demonstrated that the variable of buildings’ resistance against earthquakes had the highest effect on reducing vulnerability of the studied region.5. ConclusionThe present study was conducted with the purpose of examining the role of earthquake risk management in reducing the vulnerability of rural communities in Zarin Dasht Town. The findings of the study showed that the extent of vulnerability to earthquakes is below average at all dimensions including economic, social, institutional, and physicalenvironmental. The following recommendations are listed below based on the obtained results in line with reducing the damages caused by earthquake risk within the framework of risk management indices:Empowerment of local people and authorities in various affairs prior to earthquakes;Reinforcement of vulnerable buildings using the capabilities of local authorities;Improving awareness, particularly awareness of the time of earthquake occurrence using local and modern scientific capacities.