ارائۀ سناریوهای محتمل در شکل گیری شهر الکترونیک مشهد در افق 1404

اهداف: امروزه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات یکی از اصلی ترین ابزارهای تحول و توسعۀ جوامع محسوب می شود. خدمات شهر الکترونیک، نقش فراوانی در ارتقای کمی و کیفی، تسریع و همچنین تسهیل کردن خدمات شهری به عهده دارند. لزوم وجود زیرساخت های لازم برای ایجاد شهر الکترونیک در شهرهای در حال توسعه و عدم اطمینان ناشی از پیچیدگی محیطی، پیش بینی آینده را در این شهرها با مشکل مواجه کرده است، به گونه ای که برنامه ریزی سنتی دیگر قادر به پاسخ گویی نیست و می توان از روش سناریونویسی در جهت پیش بینی آینده و تبیین جایگزین های ممکن در شرایط متفاوت استفاده کرد. هدف از این پژوهش، توسعۀ سناریوهای محتمل در شکل گیری شهر الکترونیک در مشهد و ارائۀ راهبردهایی در جهت رسیدن به شهر الکترونیک پویا در افق 1404 است.روش : برای رسیدن به این هدف 6 گام اصلی سناریونویسی دنبال شد که در این راستا مطالعات کمی و کیفی صورت گرفت. در ابتدا در قالب پرسش نامه (در دو بعد درجۀ تاثیرگذاری و عدم قطعیت) از 60 نفر از متخصصان در حوزۀ شهر الکترونیک در مشهد نظرخواهی شد و به وسیله‌ آزمون های آماری توصیفی و استنباطی نظیر فریدمن عوامل موثر اولویت بندی شد و سپس پیشران های بحرانی شکل دهندۀ سناریوها تعیین شد و در جهت تعیین منطق سناریوها، توسعه‌ سناریوها، بررسی پیامدها و همچنین تعیین راهبردها با ابزار مصاحبۀ نیمه ساختار یافته با 7 نفر از متخصصان که به روش اشباع نظری انتخاب شدند مصاحبه شد.یافته ها ونتایج: نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که 3 سناریو برای آیندۀ کلان شهر مشهد در رابطه با شهر الکترونیک قابل تصور است که با عناوین وضعیت طلایی، وضعیت عدم پیوستگی و وضعیت راکد معرفی شده است و در نهایت نیز راهبردهایی جهت رسیدن کلان شهر مشهد به سناریوی مطلوب ارائه شده است.

Presenting Probable Scenarios in the Formation of Electronic City of Mashhad in 1404

Extended AbstractIntroductionThe formation of electronic city depends on technology development. The invention of telegraph paves the way for developing actual communications and reduces time and distances. Requirements to build related infrastructures for an electronic city in developing countries and the existence of uncertainty in the environment create a barrier for forecasting future therefore applying the traditional planning method cannot respond to the needs of society anymore. Thus, it was necessary to use future study methods such as a scenario planning in order to forecast the future. Planning includes an inclination of human to the future in order to solve related problems and create an ability to see the future clearly. One of the approaches of future study is scenario planning. Scenarios do not claim to forecast the exact future but they use the descriptive technique to anticipate events.Review of LiteratureDriving forces behind cities and the ever increasing role of the cities in international economic context, need for transferring information, marketing and mobility leads to the commodity and the service exchange between cities. Based on this, IT is a new characteristics of planning and management of cities. The emergence of an electronic city makes urban institutions in the world aware of the importance of increasing the efficiency and accessibility of the service delivery which focuses on the opportunities provided with ICT in order to increase the investment. Researchers presented different factors which have an impact on implementing electronic cities. These factors can be categorized as political, social, technological, institutional, and individual.MethodThe aim of this research is to develop probable scenarios for the formation of electronic city in Mashhad and presenting strategies in order to achieve dynamic electronic city concept in 1404. The first stage is to identify focal issues that have an impact on decision making which can be considered as the research objective. In the second stage, key factors are identified which are categorized in five dimensions including political, social, technological, institutional, and individual. The third stage is identifying environmental key issues which are presented as a conceptual model showing the important factors for the implementation of an electronic city. Also, in the third stage, a questionnaire was designed (based on two dimensions of degree of impact and uncertainty) in order to collect idea of experts in this field. Results were analyzed based on descriptive and inferential statistics such as the use of Friedman test to rank the driving forces. In the fourth stage, the scenario logic was shaped based on the result of semistructured interviews with experts. In order to develop scenarios, a sixth stage was considered for developing and interpreting scenarios. In order to develop and evaluate the consequences of scenarios and to design the related strategies, seven semistructured interviews were conducted.Results and DiscussionIn order to reach the six stages of scenario planning, firstly, 60 people were selected from experts in the area of electronic city of Mashhad. Using descriptive and inferential statistics, influential factors were ranked and the driving forces were identified. In order to define the scenario logic, developing scenarios, predicting its consequences and also defining strategies, interviews were conducted with experts in this field. Results show that three scenarios can be considered for Mashhad as an electronic city including the golden status, nonintegrated status, and also the static status. In the later stage, strategies were also identified for reaching the favorable scenario in the future.ConclusionBased on the research results and the six stages of scenario planning for the electronic city of Mashhad, three scenarios were described among which the best case was introduced. In the following, the summary of results and also strategies to reach the golden scenario is described. It should be noted that the current evaluation of Mashhad shows a gap between the current status and the desired one using interview results as well as SWOT analysis. Based on the research objective and interviews, the golden scenario is the best for implementing the electronic city of Mashhad where all organizations interact with each other which can result in a formation of an electronic city with all infrastructures, services, and standard facilities in order to deliver services to citizens. In order to transit to the “Golden status”, it is necessary to provide strategies. These strategies should be considered at national, regional, and urban level consequently. Strategies include having accessibility to information at local, national, and international level 24 hours a day, disseminating the innovation culture, studying future to identify and utilize opportunities over time, promoting the status of innovation, integrating the urban management, utilizing the best processes and activities, providing transparency in operation and decision, allocating autonomy and budget for innovative planning and growing IT.