شناسایی سوگیری‌های شناختی سیاست‌گذاران در تصمیم‌گیری‌های استراتژیک حکمرانی با رویکرد فراترکیب

هدف: محیط های ملی همواره با پیچیدگی، نوسانات و تحولات محیطی فراوانی مواجه هستند و در این راستا وظیفه سیاست گذاران اتخاذ تصمیمات استراتژیک برای دستیابی به اهداف کشور است در سال‌های اخیر موضوع حکمرانی به حوزه ملی وارد شده و بر اهمیت تصمیم‌گیری‌های استراتژیک تاکید داشته است. اما اتخاذ این تصمیمات، همواره با خطاها و سوگیری‌هایی شناختی همراه است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی سوگیری‌های شناختی سیاست‌گذاران در تصمیم‌گیری‌های استراتژیک حکمرانی انجام شده است. روش‌شناسی: پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی بوده و از نظر نوع داده‌ها پژوهش کیفی است. با جست‌وجوی کلیدواژه‌های پژوهش در پایگاه‌های اطلاعاتی خارجی مانند امرالد، وب آو ساینس، اسکوپوس، و غیره و داخلی مانند نورمگز، مگیران، سیویلیکا و غیره (پژوهش‌های سال‌های 1980 تا 2024 و 1390 تا 1402) منابع موردنظر پیدا شده و با روش روایی صوری توسط گروه کانون خبرگان و پایایی کاپا برابر 0.72، روایی و پایایی یافته‌ها تایید شد. منابع بدست آمده با استفاده از روش فراترکیب هفت مرحله‌ای سندلوسکی و باروسو (2007) کدگذاری انجام و مولفه‌های موردنظر پژوهش شناسایی شده است. یافته‌ها: با توجه به یافته‌های حاصل از بررسی 22 پژوهش نهایی انتخاب شده، 134 کد منجر به 40 سوگیری شناختی شده و در 5 گروه اصلی شامل سوگیری‌های مرتبط با تصمیم‌گیری و قضاوت، سوگیری‌های پردازش اطلاعات، سوگیری‌های آگاهی و ادراک، سوگیری‌های خودمحوری و سوگیری‌های اجتماعی و گروهی شناسایی شده است. نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که چگونه تصمیم‌گیری تحت تاثیر سوگیری‌های داخلی و خارجی قرار می‌گیرد و فعال می‌شود. این پژوهش تاکید می‌کند که سیاست‌گذاران باید سوگیری‌های شناختی خود را در هر دسته شناخته و مدیریت کنند و اطلاعات مناسب را از مجموعه گسترده ای از داده‌ها انتخاب کنند تا در تحولات محیطی، تصمیمات استراتژیک مناسبی اتخاذ نمایند.

identifying policymakers’ cognitive biases in governance strategic decision-making: a metasynthesis approach

introduction: national environments are always faced with complexity, fluctuations and many environmental changes, and these trends will have deep consequences for countries (acciarini et al., 2021). in this regard, the duty of policy makers is to make strategic decisions to control these trends and achieve the country's goals (hao & clark, 2023). therefore, due to the importance of this issue, in recent years, the issue of governance has entered the national sphere and emphasized the importance of strategic decisions. but making these decisions, with the pervasive influence of cognitive biases, suffers from deviations and failure to achieve goals (paulus et al., 2022). therefore, understanding the complexities of cognitive biases is very important to discover the secrets behind policy formulation and implementation. in addition, the dynamic nature of environmental challenges exacerbates the sensitivity of policymakers to cognitive biases (waazi et al., 2023). therefore, this research seeks to identify cognitive biases in the strategic decision-making process of policy makers for governance and cognition in order to identify measures to improve decision-making.methods: this research is applied in terms of purpose and qualitative in terms of the type of data, and it was done with the library research method and the type of secondary and documentary studies and cross-sectionally. in this regard, the meta-combination method has been used as a suitable method to obtain comprehensive findings on this subject based on the review of past studies (mansouri moid et al., 2019). therefore, the statistical population of this research is the collection of internal and external studies conducted in the field of keywords and the method of selecting the sample in a targeted manner and by searching for these keywords in foreign databases such as emerald, web of science, springer, scopus, google scholar, etc. and domestic databases such as noormags, magiran, civilica, research center of science and information technology of iran, etc. (researches from 1980 to 2024) and it is a review of theoretical saturation and researches done in this field (kordhaidari et al., 2018). to take advantage of this hybrid method, the seven-step method of sandelowski and barroso (2007) has been used. in this research, the validity and reliability of the findings were confirmed with the method of face validity and expert center group and kappa reliability equal to 0.72.results: according to the findings from the review of 22 selected studies, 134 codes analyzed and main categories of policy makers' cognitive biases were identified and classified into 5 main categories and 40 components or biases. therefore, in this research, cognitive biases effective in strategic decision-making by policy makers include: biases related to decision-making and judgment (anchoring, access, representation, extreme generalization, reference points, functional stabilization, profit-loss framework, risk aversion, sunk cost, status quo), information processing biases (confirmation, framing, tunnel vision, mental filter, illusion of similarity, problem solving set, adaptation, fit), awareness and perception biases (illusion of explanatory depth, overconfidence, positive illusions, emotional reasoning, endowment effect, imaginability, planning fallacy, hindsight, risk perception, stereotyping, attention), egocentric biases (reliance on a strategy, delusional (excessive) superiority, optimism, overoptimism, egocentrism, self-reinforcing, illusion of control) and social and group biases (wagon effect, in-group, curse of knowledge, tragedy of the commons).conclusion: the research results showed how decision-making is affected by internal and external biases. this research emphasizes that policy makers must recognize and manage their cognitive biases in each category and select appropriate information from a wide set of data in order to make appropriate strategic decisions in environmental developments. in particular, the results showed that the success of existing decisions is related to the role of determinants in strategic decisions, which mainly focuses on cognitive biases. in fact, when transformations occur, managers tend to formulate and implement strategic decisions according to their values, experiences, and biases. furthermore, the interpretation of specific events differs based on the specific types of cognitive biases used to make judgments. when it comes to decision-making, a model is implemented that combines analysis, decision-making, installation and control. in particular, the initial stage of analysis refers to the detection of trends and transformations and is of particular importance due to the current information overload and the existence of potential cognitive biases. in fact, managers should pay special attention to the collection and selection of data processes in order to choose the best strategic decisions. in addition, the adoption phase requires the participation of relevant stakeholder groups that build collective consensus, thus facilitating the implementation of strategic decisions. in their decision-making process, policy makers often refer to their past experiences, available information, and personal perceptions. according to the results, biases can be related to decision making and judgment of policy makers and for example cause policy makers to stick to past decisions and use them in new decisions or biases related to information processing and cause policy makers to make their decisions verify and analyze based on available information. biases related to awareness and perception are also effective and may also cause policy makers to be inclined to deeper explanations of the available information. the self-centeredness of policymakers is also an important bias that can lead to decision-making based on personal situations and obstacles and their own way of thinking, and finally, social and group biases are also effective on the decisions of policymakers, and it shows that policymakers are influenced by interactions and communities and individuals. they should pay attention to it. in this regard, the results of the research indicate that relevant officials and policy makers in the field of governance should be aware of cognitive biases, and through increasing knowledge and training, the strategic decision-making process of policy makers can be optimized and minimized the bias was established and finally the governance resulting from these decisions was successfully carried out in line with the national goals.