بررسی اثر غیرخطی تغییر ساختار اشتغال بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ در استان‌های ایران با استفاده از مدل پنل کوانتایل

تغییرات آب‌وهوایی ناشی از افزایش انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ و سایر گازهای گلخانه‌ای، یکی از مسائل حیاتی است که بشر با آن مواجه شده و خطرات قابل ‌توجهی هم برای انسان و هم محیط‌زیست به وجود آورده است و در دهه‌های اخیر، این موضوع که چگونه انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ کاهش یابد، به یک مسئله جدی تبدیل ‌شده است؛ به‌طوری‌که بسیاری از محققان را به مطالعه عوامل ایجادکننده و موثر بر دی‌اکسید کربن‌ و کنترل آن‌ها سوق داده است. از عوامل موثر بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ می‌توان به تغییر ساختار اشتغال اشاره کرد که می‌تواند نقش مهمی در افزایش انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ از طریق افزایش فعالیت‌های صنعتی و رشد اقتصادی داشته باشد و کنترل آن می‌تواند اهمیت زیادی در کاهش میزان دی‌اکسید کربن‌ منتشر شده داشته باشد. بنابراین، در مطالعه حاضر تاثیر تغییر ساختار اشتغال بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ در استان‌های ایران با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون پنل کوانتایل با اثرات ثابت غیرجمع‌پذیر که توسط پاول (2016) ارائه‌ شده، طی بازه زمانی 1398-1388 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج مطالعه نشان می‌دهد افزایش تغییر ساختار اشتغال؛ یعنی افزایش انتقال نیروی کار از بخش کشاورزی به سایر بخش‌‌های اقتصادی از جمله خدمات و صنعت، انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ را افزایش می‌دهد. علاوه بر این، به ‌طور غیرمستقیم شاخص تغییر ساختار اشتغال،اثر مثبت و معناداری بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ در استان‌های ایران دارد. همچنین، رابطه n معکوس میان انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن‌ و رشد اقتصادی در این مطالعه تایید شد و ضرایب به ‌دست آمده برای نابرابری درآمد، منفی و معنادار و برای سرانه مصرف انرژی، صنعتی‌ شدن و شهرنشینی مثبت و معنادار است.

investigating the nonlinear effect of structural labor change on carbon dioxide emissions in iran’s provinces using the panel quantile model

climate change, caused by the increase in the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, is one of the critical issues that mankind has faced and has created significant risks for both humans and the environment. in recent decades, many researchers have studied the factors that cause and affect carbon dioxide and their control. among the factors affecting the emission of carbon dioxide, we can mention the structural labor change, which can play an important role in increasing the emission of carbon dioxide through the increase of industrial activities and economic growth. therefore, in the present study, the effect of structural labor change on carbon dioxide emissions in iran’s provinces was investigated using the quantile regression with non-additive fixed effects presented by powell (2016). the results show that increasing labor transfer from the agricultural sector to other economic sectors, including services and industry, increases carbon dioxide emissions. additionally, indirectly, the structural labor change index has a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions in iran’s provinces. the study also confirmed an inverse n relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth. the coefficients obtained for income inequality are negative and significant, while those for per capita energy consumption, industrialization, and urbanization are positive and significant. introductionsince the early 1990s, the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has increased in most countries, aligning with economic growth. this has given rise to numerous challenges for humanity, inflicting detrimental effects on ecosystems across various parts of the world. the increase in carbon dioxide emissions over the past two decades has prompted researchers to delve into the factors influencing such emissions and their control. one significant factor influencing carbon dioxide emissions is the transfer of labor from the agricultural sector to other sectors. this transition is recognized as a hallmark of economic development, commonly referred to as a structural labor change in the field of development economics. though most economic theories view the labor transfer as an indicator of socio-economic progress, this phenomenon also has disadvantages that can result in abnormal consequences affecting culture, the environment, society, and economy. shao et al. (2021) and yang et al. (2021) highlight it as a pivotal factor influencing carbon dioxide emissions and environmental degradation. understanding the impact of this phenomenon on carbon dioxide emissions is crucial for formulating policies aimed at regulating the emitted carbon dioxide levels. in iran, the transfer of labor from the agricultural sector to other economic sectors has risen, driven by diverse motives and concurrent with the expansion of urbanization and industrialization. this shift may entail numerous environmental challenges. long-term statistics reveal that since 1956, the agricultural sector has lost its superiority, while the industrial and service sectors have experienced an increase in the number of workers. the disparity between the industry and services sectors compared to agriculture has widened (mohinizadeh et al., 2019). however, in iran, the impact of structural labor change on carbon dioxide emissions has not received significant scholarly attention. in this respect, the present research aimed to explore the nonlinear effects of structural labor change across 31 provinces in iran during 2010–2020. the study first calculated the carbon dioxide emissions in each province. subsequently, the analysis focused on the impact of structural labor change, particularly the transfer of labor from the agricultural sector to other economic sectors, on carbon dioxide emissions in the provinces. materials and methodsthe study adopted the experimental model proposed by liu et al. (2019) and yang et al. (2021), utilizing the subform presented in equation (1). (1)  equation (1) defines the following variables: lnco_2 represents the logarithm of carbon dioxide emissions per capita; lngdp signifies the logarithm of real gdp; ln2gdp denotes the square of the logarithm of real gdp; ln3gdp represents the cube of the logarithm of real gdp; lnratioagr indicates the logarithm of structural labor change; lngini is the logarithm of income inequality; lnurb denotes the logarithm of urbanization; lnindst is the logarithm of industrialization; and lnec stands for the logarithm of energy consumption. furthermore, lnratioagr×gdp represents the logarithm of the interaction term between structural labor change and real gdp. this variable was incorporated into the model due to the indirect impact of structural labor change on carbon dioxide emissions. in addition to the variable of structural labor change, the study examined the effect of other explanatory variables on carbon dioxide emissions. these variables are summarized in table 1.  table 1. introduction of explanatory variablessourcedescriptionvariablestatistical center of iranthe ratio represents the percentage of the working labor force in the agricultural sector compared to the total working population. a higher percentage indicates less change in the employment structure, while a lower percentage signifies more pronounced structural changes in the labor force.structural labor changeenergy balancetotal energy consumption per capita, encompassing natural gas, kerosene, fuel oil, and gasoline (thousand liters).energy consumptionstatistical center of iranthe ratio of the added value of the industrial sector to the gdp (million rials)industrializationministry of economic affairs and financereal gdp (million rials).economic