بررسی ماهیت تورم در اقتصاد ایران: رویکرد همدوسی موجکی

تورم بالا و مستمر در اقتصاد ایران به عنوان یک معضل ساختاری دارای پیامدهای اقتصادی، سیاسی و فرهنگی گسترده‌‌ای است و برای کنترل تورم در کشور، سیاست‌گذاران باید سیاست‌‌های مناسب، به موقع و متناسب با ساختارهای اقتصادی را اتخاذ کنند. از این ‌‌رو، هدف این مطالعه، شناسایی ماهیت تورم و ارائه تحلیل‌‌های واقعی در مورد تورم است. برای این منظور، مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از رویکرد تبدیل موجک پیوسته پویایی‌های رابطه علی میان تورم و نقدینگی و رابطه میان تورم و نرخ ارز را با استفاده از داده‌‌های ماهانه طی سال‌‌های 1361: 1 تا 1399: 12 در اقتصاد ایران مورد بررسی قرار می‌‌دهد. طبق نتایج تحقیق: 1- نقدینگی در بلندمدت بر نرخ تورم تاثیرگذار نیست و علیت معکوس (علیت از سمت تورم به نقدینگی) وجود دارد و این نتیجه موید تایید درون‌زایی نقدینگی در بلندمدت در اقتصاد ایران است. 2- تکانه‌‌های رشد نرخ ارز (طرف عرضه اقتصاد) بر تورم موثر است؛ به گونه‌‌ای که نرخ ارز در هر دو فرکانس کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اثر معناداری بر تورم داشته است.

nature of the inflation in iranian economy: wavelet coherence approach

high and continuous inflation in iran’s economy as a structural dilemma has adverse economic, political, and cultural outcomes, and to control the inflation, policymakers should employ appropriate and well-timed policies concuring to the economic structures of the country. hence, this study points to distinguish and analyze the nature of inflation. for this reason, the present study examines the dynamics of the causal relationship between inflation and liquidity as well as the relationship between inflation and exchange rate by applying the continuous wavelet transform approach using monthly data during the years 1982 to 2021 in iran’s economy. the results indicate: 1. liquidity does not infulence the inflation rate in the long term and there is a reverse causality (causality from inflation to liquidity) and this result affirms the endogeneity of liquidity in the long term in iran’s economy. 2. the exchange rate growth shocks (from the supply side of the economy) affect inflation, in a way that the exchange rate altogether influences the inflation in both the short and long term.1.introductionamid the last few decades, high and steady  inflation has been a serious economic problem in iran’s economy. empirical evidence suggests that in the years 1995, 1996, 2013, 2014, 2019, and 2020-21,  iran’s economy has suffered from heavy and sequentional inflations. however,  the perseverance of high inflation, especially since 2020, has turned into a fundamental problem. the main issue about the inflation in our country is not the inflation per se, but the critical status of it has faced development plans with great challenges for many years. then again during the last decade, the economy tried to control inflation by restricting the growth of the money supply. but it appears that the results come to oppose established recommendations to curb the growth of liquidity.  therefore, the question raised in the present study is whether the high inflation rate in iran’s economy is due to the rise of the money supply.although the relationship between inflation and liquidity in the economy has been examined in several studies, the significance of inflation and its relation with macroeconomic variables-  the broad previous and subsequent link with other variables- exaggerates the study of the relationships among these variables and other macroeconomic variables in different time scales. in this regard, the present study examines the relationship among some key monetary and price variables in the economy (dynamics of the relationship between inflation and liquidity as well as inflation and exchange rate).2.methodology and methodsthere are several methods to examine the interrelationships of inflation, exchange rate, and liquidity that are commonly divided into the form of statistical methods as well as model-based methods. but, since the causal relationship between these variables is likely to change over time, so further exploration of those relationships requires techniques that consider the relationship between two variables over time and different time horizons (different friquencies). unlike most statistical and econometric techniques, the wavelet approach does not require variables to be survivable, nor does it assume linear relationships between them. in contrast to time series techniques, the use of wavelet approaches, especially wavelet coherence and continuous wavelet transform approaches within the framework of the methodology of econophysics (econophysics), opens new horizons in the study of causality in time series, because it shows the possibility of dynamically examining effects at different frequencies by separating it to the short and long term.