شناسایی راهکارهای مدیریتی مناسب در بهبود چالش‌های نوسانات فصلی گردشگری اثرگذار بر کاهش تقاضای گردشگران (مورد مطالعه: استان یزد)

صنعت گردشگری به عنوان یکی از محرک‌های اصلی توسعه در بسیاری از کشورها شناخته می‌شود. با این حال، نوسانات فصلی تقاضای گردشگری به عنوان یکی از چالش‌های عمده این صنعت، تاثیرات قابل توجهی بر اقتصاد، جامعه و محیط‌زیست مقاصد گردشگری دارد. هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی راهکارهای مدیریتی مناسب برای بهبود چالش‌های نوسانات فصلی تقاضای گردشگری در استان یزد است. نوع پژوهش تحلیلی - توصیفی است. برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از منابع کتابخانه‌ای و مصاحبه استفاده شده است. تکنیک مورد استفاده در این پژوهش نگاشت‌شناختی است. جامعه آماری 75 نفر از خبرگان گردشگری در استان یزد بوده و از روش نمونه‌گیری گلوله ‌برفی استفاده شده است. برای تحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزارهای اف‌سی‌مپر و یوسینت استفاده شد و نقشه‌های شناختی فازی ترسیم شد. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان داد که 15 راهکار مدیریتی شامل توسعه رویدادها و جشنواره‌های فصلی، تبلیغات هدفمند، تخفیف‌ها و مشوق‌های مالی، بهبود کیفیت خدمات، توسعه زیرساخت‌ها، تنوع‌بخشی به محصولات گردشگری، برنامه‌ریزی برای گردشگری داخلی و مذهبی، همکاری با آژانس‌های مسافرتی و سازمان‌های دولتی، استفاده از فناوری و دیجیتال مارکتینگ و توسعه گردشگری پایدار به عنوان مهم‌ترین راهکارها برای کاهش اثرات منفی نوسانات فصلی شناسایی شدند. براساس تحلیل‌های انجام‌شده، همکاری با سازمان‌های دولتی و محلی، برنامه‌ریزی برای گردشگری مذهبی و برنامه‌ریزی برای گردشگری داخلی به عنوان عوامل کلیدی با بیشترین مرکزیت و تاثیرگذاری بر سایر عوامل شناخته شدند. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که اجرای راهکارهای شناسایی‌شده می‌تواند به کاهش نوسانات فصلی، افزایش تقاضای گردشگری در فصول کم‌رونق و بهبود وضعیت گردشگری استان یزد کمک کند.

management strategies for mitigating tourism seasonality: a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach in yazd

the tourism industry is known as one of the main drivers of development in many countries. however, seasonal fluctuations in tourism demand, as one of the major challenges of this industry, have significant impacts on the economy, society and environment. the aim of this research is to identify appropriate management solutions to improve the challenges of seasonal fluctuations in tourism demand in yazd province. the type of research is analytical-descriptive. library resources and interviews were used to collect information. the technique used in this research is cognitive mapping. the statistical population is 75 tourism experts in yazd province, and the snowball sampling method was used. fcmapper and ucinet6 software were used to analyze the data, and fuzzy cognitive maps were drawn. the research findings identified 15 key management strategies to reduce the negative effects of seasonal fluctuations, including developing seasonal events, targeted advertising, financial incentives, improving service quality, diversifying tourism products, and promoting sustainable tourism. the analyses identified collaboration with government and local organizations, planning for religious tourism, and planning for domestic tourism as key factors with the greatest centrality and influence on other factors. the results of this research show that implementing the identified strategies can help reduce seasonal fluctuations, increase tourism demand in the off-season, and improve the tourism situation in yazd province. introductiontourism is a pivotal driver of economic growth, job creation, and cultural exchange globally and within iran. yazd province, renowned for its unique historical, cultural, and architectural heritage registered as a unesco world heritage site, holds significant potential as a prime tourist destination. however, like many seasonal destinations, yazd faces the profound challenge of tourism demand fluctuations. these seasonal peaks and troughs lead to economic instability, underutilization or overburdening of infrastructure, volatile employment, and potential environmental strain during peak periods. addressing this seasonality is crucial for achieving sustainable tourism development, maximizing year-round economic benefits, and ensuring the preservation of cultural assets. while seasonality is a known phenomenon, identifying and prioritizing context-specific, actionable management strategies to mitigate its negative impacts remains a critical research gap, particularly for heritage-rich regions like yazd. this study aims to bridge this gap by systematically identifying and evaluating the most effective management strategies to alleviate seasonal tourism fluctuations in yazd province. literature reviewthis research is grounded in several interlinked theoretical frameworks. tourism demand theory explains how factors like climate, holidays, and pricing influence temporal visitation patterns. strategic tourism management emphasizes the need for long-term, adaptive planning to overcome industry challenges like seasonality. sustainable tourism development theory provides the overarching goal, advocating for a balance between economic vitality, social equity, cultural integrity, and environmental protection—a balance disrupted by intense seasonality. furthermore, destination competitiveness and marketing theories highlight the importance of creating a diversified, high-quality tourism product and implementing targeted promotional campaigns to attract visitors during off-peak seasons. previous studies, both internationally and in iran, have explored seasonality mitigation tools such as developing seasonal events, offering financial incentives, diversifying attractions, and leveraging digital marketing. this study builds upon this body of knowledge by applying an integrated analytical approach (fuzzy cognitive mapping) to model the complex causal relationships between various management strategies within the specific context of yazd. methodologythis applied research employs a descriptive-survey design and a mixed-methods approach. the study population consisted of 75 tourism experts (academics, government officials, and private sector professionals) in yazd province, selected via purposive and snowball sampling. the research process involved: 1) conducting a comprehensive literature review and preliminary interviews to identify key management strategies for mitigating seasonality; 2) the development and validation of a matrix questionnaire where experts scored the causal influence between 15 finalized management strategies (e.g., developing seasonal festivals, targeted marketing, improving service quality, infrastructure development, promoting religious and domestic tourism, public-private collaboration); 3) the construction of individual and aggregated fuzzy cognitive maps (fcms) using fcmapper software to model the expert knowledge system, depicting each strategy as a concept node and their interrelationships as weighted causal links; 4) analysis of the integrated fcm using ucinet6 software to calculate network centrality indices (influence, susceptibility, and total centrality) for each strategy, identifying the most pivotal levers within the system; 5) simulation of different policy intervention scenarios to assess the potential systemic outcomes of focusing on different combinations of key strategies. resultsthe analysis of the integrated cognitive map (15 factors, 210 causal links) revealed the relative power and role of each management strategy. based on centrality rankings, collaboration with government and local organizations, planning for religious tourism, and planning for domestic tourism emerged as the three most central and influential strategies. this indicates that synergistic institutional coordination and the strategic development of niche tourism segments (religious and domestic) are perceived by experts as having the greatest cascading positive effect on the entire system to counter seasonality.other significant strategies included diversifying tourism products, leveraging technology and digital marketing, and developing sustainable tourism infrastructure. scenario simulations provided critical insights: isolated interventions on single factors yielded limited systemic improvement. for instance, focusing solely on institutional collaboration without parallel development in religious/domestic tourism planning resulted in only slow, moderate positive shifts across all factors. the findings underscore the necessity of an integrated, multi-pronged strategy that simultaneously activates the most central leverage points within the management ecosystem to achieve substantial and sustained reduction in seasonal volatility. conclusion and future researchthis study successfully identified and prioritized a set of 15 management strategies to address tourism seasonality in yazd province. the core conclusion is that effective mitigation requires moving beyond isolated tactics towards a holistic, systems-based approach. the most critical action axis involves fostering strong collaboration between public and private entities to strategically develop and promote yazd's unique offerings—particularly to religious and domestic market segments—during off-peak seasons.practical recommendations include: 1) establishing a public-private tourism coordination council for yazd to align efforts and resources. 2) developing a detailed calendar of year-round cultural, religious, and seasonal events to attract visitors outside traditional peaks. 3) creating and marketing tailored tourism packages for domestic and religious travelers targeting shoulder and low seasons. 4) implementing coordinated digital marketing campaigns that highlight yazd's allure across all seasons. future research could expand the geographical scope, incorporate tourist perception data, or employ longitudinal designs to measure the impact of implemented strategies. by adopting the identified integrated management solutions, stakeholders in yazd can transform seasonal challenges into opportunities for resilient, sustainable, and year-round tourism development.