تاثیر ریسک مالی کشوری و مولفه‏های تعیین‌کننده آن در صادرات صنعتی کشورهای در حال ‌توسعه

در سال‌های اخیر هم‌زمان با افزایش همبستگی بازارهای مختلف، میزان ریسک مالی کشورهای در حال ‌توسعه صادرکننده کالاهای صنعتی افزایش‌یافته است. هدف اصلی، ارزیابی میزان تاثیرپذیری صادرات صنعتی این دسته از کشورها از ریسک مالی کشوری و مولفه ‏های تشکیل‌دهنده آن در مقایسه با عوامل سنتی تجارت دوجانبه نظیر اندازه اقتصاد،‌ نرخ ارز حقیقی و مرز مشترک و مسافت است. در این مقاله از داده‌های تابلویی برای دوره 2022 تا 2002 و در چارچوب مدل جاذبه و به روش حداکثر درست نمایی شبه پواسن (ppml) استفاده شده است. بر اساس یافته‌های این مطالعه، شرایط ریسک مالی کشوری کشورهای در حال ‌توسعه در مقایسه با سایر عوامل کلاسیک تجارت دوجانبه دارای بیشترین تاثیر است. این مطالعه همچنین نشان می‌دهد در میان مولفه‏ های تعیین‌کننده ریسک مالی کشوری به ‌استثنای ریسک بدهی خارجی، کاهش ریسک حساب‌جاری، بدهی خدمات، ثبات نرخ ارز و ریسک نقدینگی بین‌المللی باعث رشد صادرات صنعتی کشورهای در حال ‌توسعه می‌شود. از این ‌رو، رویکرد ارزیابی ریسک مالی کشوری و مدیریت موثر آن برای کشورهای در حال ‌توسعه صادرکننده کالاهای صنعتی، بسیار حیاتی است. بنابراین، پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاست‌های مدیریت این ریسک‌ها شامل شناسایی آنها، ارزیابی تاثیر بر تجارت و احتمال وقوع آن، اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌ها، در نظر گرفتن نحوه مقابله با آن و توسعه اقداماتی برای غلبه بر آن برای به حداقل رساندن تاثیر منفی بر صادرات و جلوگیری از آن در آینده در دستور کار برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‌گذاران صادرات کشورهای در حال ‌توسعه باشد.

country financial risk and industrial exports of developing countries: evidence from a gravity model with ppml

in recent years, as the interdependence of different markets has increased, the level of financial risk of developing countries exporting industrial goods has increased. the main objective is to assess the extent to which industrial exports of these countries are affected by country financial risk and its components in comparison with traditional factors of bilateral trade such as economic size, real exchange rate, common border, and distance. in this paper, panel data for the period 2022 to 2002 are used within the framework of the gravity model and pseudo-poisson maximum likelihood (ppml) method. according to the findings of this study, the country financial risk conditions of developing countries have the greatest impact compared to other classic factors of bilateral trade. this study also showed that among the determinants of country financial risk, with the exception of external debt risk, reducing current account risk, service debt, exchange rate stability, and international liquidity risk leads to growth in industrial exports of developing countries. therefore, an approach to assessing country financial risk and its effective management is crucial for developing countries exporting industrial goods. thus, it is suggested that policies for managing these risks, including identifying them, assessing their impact on trade, prioritizing them, and developing measures to overcome them, should be on the agenda of export planners and policymakers in developing countries to minimize the negative impact on exports and prevent the negative impacts in the future. introductioncurrently, high correlation between different markets, increasing unilateralism and trade protectionism of developing countries have led to the spread of risk and uncertainty in these countries. one of the risks threatening industrial exports is country financial risk, which arises from fluctuations in exchange rates and government debt, affecting trade budgets and profitability. this category of risks represents an important hidden transaction cost and determines the flow of international trade in bilateral or multilateral industrial goods and therefore should be considered in any empirical model of international trade. the country financial risk considered in this study is a measure of a country's ability to meet its financial obligations at the international level. the country financial risk index is a combination of external debt risk, external service debt, current account, international liquidity and exchange rate stability. the main issue of the article is to identify the degree of influence of developing countries' industrial exports on country financial risk and its determining components in comparison with other factors affecting the exports of this group of countries.given that so far the discussion of the effect of country financial risk in the industrial export model has been very limited, and also the research conducted with an approach that has focused only on one of the country risk factors; therefore, the present study, in addition to examining the effect of country financial risk, also examines the importance of each of its determining components on the industrial exports of developing countries in comparison with other classic factors determining industrial exports. the result of this study can provide more effective and useful decision-making areas for developing countries that have always faced various types of deterrent risks in the course of international exchanges in the last four decades.the present study can contribute to the discussion of decision-making in the field of industrial exports of developing countries from three perspectives: first, the factors affecting developing countries' exports, especially from the perspective of country financial risk and at the industry sector level, are identified and a model for the development of industrial exports of these countries is presented. in fact, the industrial export model of developing countries is identified and explained by considering country financial risk along with other determinants of bilateral trade. second, based on the latest available domestic and foreign studies that have emphasized traditional influential factors, such as economic factors, supply and demand factors, and distance on industrial export patterns of developing countries, the impact of country financial risk on industrial exports remains largely unknown. however, many researchers argue that country risk, such as financial risk, is a key factor that should be considered with regard to international trade policy. third, the impact of developing countries' financial risk in terms of each of its determinants is also considered. the results of these assessments will ultimately provide the basis for a more realistic analysis of the selection of important and influential drivers of industrial exports in developing countries.methods and materialin the present study, based on the modified gravity model of anderson and van wynkoop (2003) and also based on the aforementioned empirical studies such as kai et al. (2022) and jahanbakhsh pour-jabbari et al. (1402), the proposed gravity model is presented in terms of the financial risk index and separately for each of its constituent components as equations (2) to (7):model (2) assesses the impact of the country's financial risk index (frr): model (3): for assessing the impact of the external debt risk index (fd): model (4): for assessing the impact of the external debt service risk index (fds): model (5): for assessing the impact of the current account risk index (ca): model (6): for assessing the impact of the international liquidity risk index (nil): model (7): for evaluating the impact of the exchange rate stability risk index (ers): in models (2) to (7), t represents the year, i denotes the country of origin (exporter of industrial goods), and j denotes the country of destination, v_i and u_j with country fixed effect and δ_t is the period fixed effect and ε_ijt is the random error. also, the variable xcdv is the value of industrial exports of developing countries. as mentioned, the country financial risk of this study is a measure of a country's ability to fulfill its financial obligations at the international level. the country financial risk index (frr) variable is a composite index that evaluates five financial variables, namely the external debt risk index (fd), the external debt service risk index (fds), the current account risk (ca), the international liquidity risk (nil) and the exchange rate stability risk (ers) and their associated risk points. the range of the indices varies between zero and 50; the closer the index is to zero, the higher the risk, and the closer it is to 50, the lower the risk. to ensure comparability between countries, the components are based on the accepted ratios between them. in general, a financial risk index of 0.0 to 24.5 percent indicates very high risk, 0.25 to 29.9 percent high risk, 0.30 to 34.9 percent medium risk, 0.35 to 39.9 percent low risk, and 0.40 percent or more very low risk. information on the country financial risk index and its determinants was purchased from prsgroup.com. the raw data is monthly and is used in this study after averaging.results and discussionthe results indicate that, in the medium term, unlike the long term, financial risks in developing countries are growing, which affects the development of industrial exports. another point to be examined is that, at the same time as the country's financial risks increase, the growth of industrial exports has also become lower than the long-term industrial export growth rate. during the study period, the growth of industrial exports was 17.3 percent per year, significantly lower than the long-term growth rate of 67.9 percent. the distribution of industrial exports of developing countries in terms of country financial risk and its determinants in terms of the average period of 2002-2022 shows that many developing countries exporting industrial goods have low country financial risk during the period under study; hence, very little industrial exports of developing countries in an uncertain environment are exported to the global market in this respect.the results of estimating the industrial export attraction model of developing countries in the form of six attraction models, taking into account the country financial risk index (frr) and 5 determinants including the current account risk index (ca), debt service risk (fds), external debt risk (fd), exchange rate stability risk (ers), and international liquidity risk (nil), show that the coefficient of the variable of the country financial risk index of developing countries in the industrial export attraction model is positive as expected and statistically significant at the 1 percent error level. the coefficients of the stated variables that show the elasticity of industrial exports of developing countries to the country financial risk of this group of countries are 2.588 units. specifically, with a one percent increase in the country financial risk index of developing countries, there is a 2.588 percent increase in the growth of industrial exports of developing countries. the sign of the coefficient of the variable of the country financial risk index of export destinations in the industrial export attraction model is negative and statistically significant at the 1 percent error level. the coefficients of the variables that indicate the elasticity of developing countries' industrial exports to the country financial risk of developing countries' export destinations are -0.968. specifically, with a one percent increase in the country financial risk index of export destinations (risk reduction), the growth of developing countries' industrial export demand decreases by 0.968. this empirical finding leads to the conclusion that reducing the country risk of export destinations is not only an important and important determinant of stimulating the demand for developing countries' industrial exports, but also leads to a decrease in the demand for developing countries' industrial exports. the results also show a positive and statistically significant effect of the five components of developing countries' country financial risk and export destinations on the industrial exports of these countries. among the five components determining the country financial risk of developing countries, current account risk (ca), debt service (fds), exchange rate stability (ers) and international liquidity risk (nil) have a positive and significant effect on industrial exports of developing countries at the 1 percent error level. this is while the external debt risk component (fd) of developing countries does not have a significant relationship with industrial exports of this group of countries at a statistically acceptable level. among the components affecting industrial exports, three components of current account risk (3.253), debt service risk (1.167) and exchange rate stability risk (1.111) have elasticity above one and international liquidity (0.417) has elasticity less than one in the industrial export model of developing countries. the results related to the impact of the country financial risk components of export destinations of developing countries show that the coefficients of all 5 components determining the country financial risk of export destinations are statistically significant at the 1 percent error level. meanwhile, the coefficients of the current account risk components (-0.596), service debt (-0.642), external debt (-0.190), and international liquidity (-0.129) are negative, which indicates that with an increase in the coefficients of these components (risk reduction) of export destinations, the demand for industrial exports of developing countries decreases. in contrast, the exchange rate instability risk component (0.608) has a positive coefficient, and thus, with an increase in the exchange rate instability risk of export destinations (risk reduction) by one percent, the demand for industrial exports of developing countries increases by 0.608 percent.conclusionthis study focuses on examining the impact of country financial risk on industrial exports of developing countries and the role of each of its determinants. based on the literature, trends, determinants, and the impact of each of the classical factors affecting bilateral trade have been examined along with the determinants of country risk.the results of the descriptive analysis of trends show