تحلیل نقش مخارج یارانه‌ای دولت بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران: کاربردی از رهیافت متقارن و نامتقارن

در پژوهش حاضر ابتدا رفاه اقتصادی با استفاده از شاخص ترکیبی رفاه اقتصادی مبتنی بر چهار مولفه جریان مصرف، انباشت ثروت، امنیت و توزیع درآمد محاسبه شد. سپس با استفاده از رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی خطی و غیرخطی ضمن تبیین اثر نامتقارن یارانه بر رفاه اقتصادی، سطح بهینه یارانه‌‌ها در حداکثرسازی رفاه در دوره زمانی 1352 تا 1401 محاسبه شد. نتایج حاصل از محاسبه شاخص رفاه بیانگر آن است که از سال 1354 تا پایان جنگ روند رفاه اقتصادی کاهشی بوده و بعد از آن تا برنامه ششم روند افزایشی به خود گرفته است بطوری‌‌که میانگین آن از 20.9 در برنامه اول به 60.3 در برنامه پنجم رسیده و در برنامه ششم رقم میانگین 8 را ثبت کرده است. همچنین اندازه یارانه (نسبت به مخارج کل دولت) نشان می‌دهد که میانگین اندازه یارانه از 1352 تا پایان جنگ و همچنین در برنامه‌‌های اول تا چهارم توسعه روندی افزایشی داشته و پس از آن تا برنامه ششم کاهش یافت. نتایج برآوردها در بلندمدت نشان می‎دهد افزایش‌ها و کاهش‌ها در مخارج یارانه‌ای، با اثری مستقیم بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه است. به نحوی‌‌که اثر مستقیم کاهش‌ها در مخارج یارانه‌ای بر رفاه اقتصادی بزرگتر از اثر افزایش‌ها در آن می‌‌باشد که تایید‌ی بر وجود اثر نامتقارن مخارج یارانه‌ای بر رفاه اقتصادی است. همچنین محاسبه اندازه بهینه یارانه در حداکثرسازی رفاه اقتصادی بیانگر آن است که قبل از نسبت 8/8 درصد، افزایش در یارانه بر رفاه اقتصادی می‌افزاید و پس از آن با اثر معکوس بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه است. یافته دیگر پژوهش آنکه در طی سال‌های 1355-1368 و 1396-1401 سطح رفاه اقتصادی بطور معناداری کاهش یافته و میزان کاهش در دوره پسا برجامی به دلیل تحریم‌‌های شدید و گسترده به مراتب بیشتر از دوره نخست است.

analysis of the role of subsidized government spending on economic well-being in iran: application of symmetric and asymmetric approach

this study investigates the impact of government subsidies on economic well-being in iran, using both symmetric and asymmetric approaches. economic well-being is first quantified using a composite index based on four components: consumption flow, wealth stocks, income distribution, and economic security. the study then applies an ardl nardl model to assess the linear and non-linear effects of subsidies on economic well-being over the period from 1973 to 2022.the findings reveal a significant decline in economic well-being from 1975 until the end of the iran-iraq war, followed by an upward trend until the sixth development plan. the average index value increased from 20.9 in the first plan to 60.3 in the fifth plan, but then fell to an average of 8 in the sixth plan. the share of subsidies in total government expenditure increased from 1973 to the end of the war and during the first to fourth development plans, but decreased thereafter, particularly in the sixth plan.long-term estimates indicate that both increases and decreases in subsidy expenditures directly impact economic well-being. however, the effect of subsidy reductions on economic well-being is more significant than that of increases, suggesting the presence of an asymmetric impact. moreover, the analysis of the optimal subsidy level reveals that subsidies enhance economic well-being up to a threshold of 8.8% of government expenditure; beyond this point, increasing subsidies has a detrimental effect on economic well-being.additionally, the study highlights a marked decline in economic well-being during the periods 1976-1989 and 2017-2022, with the post-jcpoa period witnessing a more substantial decline due to the intensification of sanctions.introductionthe issue of well-being and its improvement is one of the central concerns of societies, with politicians often claiming to prioritize the creation of well-being for their citizens. economic well-being is influenced by numerous factors, including population size, economic complexity, globalization, exchange rate fluctuations, economic growth, unemployment, inflation, sanctions, production volatility, government size, and government spending. empirical studies by sowa and edpri (2007), nan and zhang (2018), sunita and mahendra (2022), and wu and liu (2023) highlight the significant impact of government expenditures, such as subsidies, on both economic and social well-being. these studies establish a notable relationship between government spending and economic well-being.among the key factors influencing economic well-being, government expenditures, and specifically subsidized spending, play a critical role. these expenditures can directly or indirectly affect economic well-being. consequently, analyzing changes in government expenditures, particularly subsidies, is crucial for policies aimed at promoting economic growth and improving well-being. given the close relationship between these two variables, determining the optimal level and composition of government spending can have substantial implications for macroeconomic policy.it is important to note that the relationship between government expenditures, subsidies, and the factors influencing them is not necessarily symmetrical. rather, it may exhibit asymmetry. this study seeks to first calculate economic well-being over the past fifty years using a composite index. second, it aims to analyze both the symmetric and asymmetric effects of subsidy expenditures on well-being in iran from 1973 to 2022 through three separate models. the autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model, incorporating both linear and nonlinear approaches, is employed for model estimation. additionally, the study explores how variations in subsidy spending impact economic well-being, particularly by distinguishing between the effects of subsidy increases and decreases.this research is innovative in several ways. first, it uses a comprehensive economic well-being index, as opposed to the amartya sen social welfare index, over a more extensive time period (1973-2022), which covers significant political and economic events, including iran’s development plans, the iran-iraq war, the revolution, and international sanctions. second, while previous studies have not specifically examined the asymmetry in subsidy effects on well-being, this research distinguishes between the impacts of subsidy increases and decreases. third, the study aims to determine the optimal level of government subsidy expenditures for maximizing economic well-being.methodfor this study, the iewb (index of economic well-being) is used as a comprehensive measure to analyze the economic well-being of iran over the period from 1973 to 2022. the iewb index incorporates four key dimensions: effective per capita consumption flow, wealth stocks, distribution of individual income, and economic security. each of these dimensions is weighted based on its relative importance.the general formula for the iewb index is as follows:iewb=cf+ws+id+ewhere:cf = effective per capita consumption flowws = wealth stocksid = distribution of individual incomee = economic securityto calculate the economic well-being index, each of these components is assigned a coefficient based on their relative importance. following the methodology of osberg and sharp (2009) and prior studies, the coefficients are as follows:4 for consumption (cf),for wealth stocks (ws),25 for income distribution (id),25 for economic security (e).given that the dimensions are measured using different units, each component is first normalized before calculating the weighted average. the normalization process ensures comparability across the dimensions, and it is carried out using the following formula: here,  ​ represents the normalized value, while  ​ and  ​ denote the minimum and maximum values of the respective dimension. using this approach, the economic well-being index was calculated for the period from 1973 to 2022.as mentioned in the introduction, the main goal of this research is to analyze and investigate the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of subsidies on economic well-being in iran. the research model focuses on examining how subsidies affect economic well-being, specifically distinguishing between the effects of subsidy increases and decreases. the asymmetric model specification follows shin et al. (2014), who examined how coefficients of factors affecting a dependent variable may differ during periods of economic well-being versus recession. building on pesaran et al.’s (2001) work, they developed the non-linear autoregressive with distributed lag (nardl) model. this study applies their pattern in two formats (symmetrical and asymmetric) to analyze our research variables. additionally, a third model is specified to calculate the optimal ratio of subsidy to total government expenditure.results and discussionthe present research investigates and analyzes the effect of subsidies on iran’s economic well-being based on symmetrical and asymmetrical approaches. additionally, in a separate model (the third model), the optimal ratio of subsidy to government expenditure was calculated. for this purpose, economic well-being was first calculated using the composite index of well-being based on four dimensions for the period 1973-2022, and the coefficients were estimated using three patterns with ardl nardl approaches.the results of calculating the well-being index and describing the data show that the well-being index increased consistently from the first plan to the fifth plan, rising from 20.9 in the first plan sub-period to 60.3 in the fifth plan sub-period. furthermore, after the third plan sub-period, the level of well-being remained higher than the average of the studied periods.the long-run estimation results indicate that subsidies have a direct and asymmetric effect on economic well-being. the direct effect of subsidy decreases on economic well-being is greater than the effect of subsidy increases. additionally, subsidies demonstrate an inverted u-shaped effect on economic well-being. the optimal ratio of subsidy to total government expenditure for maximizing economic well-being is 8.8%. when subsidies arebelow this 8.8% threshold, increases in subsidies are associated with improved economic well-being; above this threshold, additional subsidies lead to decreased economic well-being.real gdp per capita and economic growth show positive effects on economic well-being, while inflation demonstrates a negative effect. based on these findings, it is recommended that policymakers focus on policies to increase subsidy expenditures. however, given the significant negative impact of inflation on economic well-being, policymakers should carefully consider inflation when increasing subsidized expenditures. non-inflationary methods should be prioritized when financing subsidized expenditures wherever possible.