ارزیابی تاب‌آوری طبیعی شهر خلخال در برابرِ زمین‌لرزه

امروزه دولت‌ها برای کاهش اثرات مخاطرات طبیعی، راهبردهای متنوعی را در پیش می‌گیرند. از این ‌رو تاب‌آوری از دیدگاه بسیاری از محققان یکی از مهم‌ ترین موضوع‌ها برای رسیدن به پایداری است که به دنبال ایجاد جوامع تاب ‌آور در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی هستند. بر این اساس تحلیل و افزایش تاب ‌آوری سیستم‌ های انسانی و محیطی در برابر سوانح طبیعی در مسیر رسیدن به توسعه پایدار از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. روش جمع‌آوری اطلاعات در این پژوهش عمدتاً میدانی است و در طول انجام پژوهش از روش کتابخانه ‌ای نیز استفاده ‌شده است. هدف عمده این پژوهش، سنجش و تحلیل فضایی مولفه ‌های تاب‌ آوری شهری شهر خلخال ازلحاظ طبیعی است. در این پژوهش جهت تجزیه ‌و تحلیل اهمیت نسبی داده‌ها و وزن دهی به شاخص‌های تحقیق از مدل تحلیل شبکه‌ی anp (تصمیم‌گیری چند معیارِ) در قالب نرم‌افزار super descision استفاده ‌شده و در محیط سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی arc gis پس از تهیه نقشه آسیب‌پذیری برای هر معیار به تهیه نقشه نهایی شاخص طبیعی شهر خلخال در نرم‌افزار arc gis استفاده‌ شده است. با توجه به خروجی نرم‌افزار gis می‌توان بیان نمود که بخش غربی شهر از نظر طبیعی آسیب‌پذیری بالایی دارد و شرایط این قسمت از شهر بحرانی است؛ بنابراین این امر موجب می‌شود که در هنگام زمین‌لرزه آمار تلفات جانی و مالی افزایش یابد. به‌ طورکلی می‌توان گفت در محدوده مورد مطالعه همه شرایط و عوامل دخیل در آسیب ‌پذیری در برابر زمین‌لرزه در ارتباط باهم عمل نموده و باعث شکل‌گیری نواحی با آسیب‌پذیری بالا گردیده است.

assessing of natural resilience of khalkhal city against earthquake

extended abstractintroductiontoday’s metropolises are always exposed to damage caused by natural hazards for various reasons. these risks require immediate prevention and measures due to the many human and financial damages. one of the most destructive and common natural disasters is the earthquake, which has caused the greatest damage to human society from the past to the present day.several studies have been conducted in relation to the resilience and management of natural hazards at home and abroad; among these studies, we can refer to the researches of ebrahimzadeh et al. with the title of analysis on the vulnerability caused by earthquakes with emphasis on providing the optimal model for the location of special uses for health care and education, a case study of the worn out fabric of tabriz city. mansour naimi et al.’s research titled earthquake risk microzoning with fuzzy hierarchy analysis model in zone 1 of ahvaz metropolis, alexander with a research titled resilience against earthquake, kusumastoti et al. natural indonesia as well as the doctoral thesis of boston in relation to building resilience through design with the approach of improving the efficiency of hospitals after earthquakes.resilience as a concept can be used for any community and any type of disorder, whether natural, man-made or a combination of the two. the definition of resilience includes: 1. the ability of a system to absorb damage and loss, without going out of normal state 2. the ability of a system to organize and reorganize itself in different conditions 3. the ability of a system to increase and create capacity to learn and strengthen its adaptability.vulnerability is the possibility that a person or group is exposed to the incompatible effects of a hazard, which is actually an interaction between spatial hazards and social forms of societies.one of the goals of this project is to provide solutions to improve resilience according to the results and the strengths and weaknesses of khalkhal city. knowing the characteristics of the resilient city, measuring the level of urban resilience and also determining the effective methods of evaluating the resilience of khalkhal city are among the main reasons for conducting the present research. methodologythe method of collecting information in this research is mainly field and library method was also used during the research. in this research, first, the theoretical framework of the research was done by collecting information using documentary studies.in the following, in order to check the degree of resilience of the studied cities by examining previous researches, criteria and sub-criteria of resilience were determined; then, in order to analyze the data, from weighting to the research indicators, the anp network analysis model was used in the form of super decision software, and in the arc gis environment, after preparing a vulnerability map for each criterion, using the technique of layer weighting and scoring the main and sub criteria. its criteria have been used to prepare the final map of the natural index of khalkhal city in arc gis software.considering that some criteria are more important than other criteria and had a decisive role in the physical resilience of the city, a questionnaire was prepared to determine the relative importance of each of the indicators and it was distributed and completed among 15 expert experts. results and discussionit should be mentioned here that in order to evaluate the natural resilience of khalkhal city, all the layers and sub-criteria effective in the natural resilience of the region, which was the result of applying the weights obtained from anp in the gis environment, were analyzed and integrated, and then after standardizing all the indicators and using from the weight obtained from the network analysis model (anp), standard balanced maps were prepared and finally zoning of resilient urban spaces. therefore, at this stage, the resilience of the natural dimension was calculated using the raster calculator tool to be used in the final zoning of this dimension of resilience. this process was carried out for each index, and finally, the general natural resilience map of khalkhal city, which is the result of combining 8 sub-criteria of the research, was extracted. conclusionin the researches that are formed with the aim of analyzing the state of resilience, the most important issue that should be paid attention to is the analysis of vulnerability and the recognition of upcoming threats in order to identify the capacity and capabilities of resilience. the city of khalkhal has little resilience against the earthquake crisis due to its geographical and tectonic location, numerous active faults, the irregular growth of the city in the boundaries of the faults and unstable lands, so planning to deal with this risk is considered vital. the current research aims to measure and evaluate the natural resilience of khalkhal city against different earthquake intensities and to achieve the first step of planning to deal with the earthquake crisis, which is to identify the overall resilience of the city. in this research, using standard indicators, the degree of vulnerability of khalkhal city has been determined, and taking into account the results of the methods and combining them with the geographic information system, the vulnerability map of the city has been drawn. according to the final map, which is the output of gis software, it can be said that the western part of the city is naturally highly vulnerable. in the current research, it was determined that the conditions in the western part of khalkhal city are critical and during an earthquake, the number of casualties and financial damages will be high. finally, in this thesis, the obtained results showed that the method used in the research was able to evaluate the studied area well and showed the vulnerable parts, which mostly include the western areas of khalkhal city, in the final map.