تحلیل نقش تاب آوری کالبدی بر توزیع فضایی ناامنی غذایی نواحی روستایی در دوره همه گیری کرونا (مطالعه موردی: بخش مرکزی شهرستان زنجان)

تامین غذا جهت تحقق امنیت غذایی از اهداف مهم توسعه در تمامی کشورها تلقی می‌شود، کاهش ناامنی غذایی برای دولت‌ها به‌عنوان یک دستاورد مهم سیاسی و اجتماعی قلمداد می‌گردد. شیوع همه‌گیری کرونا دارای اثرات مختلفی بر نواحی روستایی بود، این اثرگذاری تحت تاثیر عوامل مختلفی رخ داد، یکی از عوامل اصلی جهت کاهش ناامنی غذایی روستائیان سطح تاب اوری کالبدی این نواحی می باشد. در همین راستا تحقیق حاضر به دنبال پاسخ به سوالات زیر است که وضعیت ناامنی غذایی نواحی روستاهای موردمطالعه در چه سطحی قرار دارد؟ و بین شاخص های تاب اوری کالبدی و توزیع فضایی ناامنی غذایی در روستاهای مورد مطالعه چه رابطه ای وجود دارد؟ هدف تحقیق حاضر ابتدا شناخت وضعیت ناامنی غذایی نواحی روستاهای موردمطالعه و سپس شناخت نقش شاخص های تاب اوری کالبدی بر ناامنی غذایی در دوره همه گیری کرونا است. نوع تحقیق حاضر کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت توصیفی - تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق تمامی روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان زنجان است که به‌صورت تمام شماری این روستاها بررسی شده‌اند. روش گردآوری اطلاعات به‌صورت کتابخانه‌ای و روش تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها نیز به‌صورت آمار توصیفی و تحلیل فضایی (رگرسیون وزن‌دار جغرافیایی و آماره موران) است. جهت تحلیل اثرات شاخص های تاب آوری کالبدی- زیست محیطی بر ناامنی غذایی از رگرسیون وزن دار جغرافیایی استفاده شده است، بر همین مبنا براساس نتایج بدست امده از این ابزار تحلیل فضایی، پهنا برابر با 168/0، مربع های باقی مانده برابر با 2964، عدد موثر برابر با 15.12، زیگما برابر با 4.64 و مقدار ضریب تعیین که میزان ارتباط خطی بین دو متغیر را اندازه گیری می کند برابر با 67/0 محاسبه شده است، بنابراین می توان گفت تاب آوری کالبدی بر روی ناامنی غذایی روستاهای مورد مطالعه موثر می باشد.

analysis of the role of physical resilience on the spatial distribution of food insecurity in rural areas during the corona epidemic, case study: central part, zanjan township

extended abstractintroductionfood security is the foundation of an advanced society and a key factor in the mental, psychological, and physical health of that society. therefore, careful and comprehensive attention to this category, along with the identification of a multidimensional indicator that includes all aspects of food security—from meeting basic needs to fulfilling cellular requirements—is of great importance to researchers and policymakers in the pursuit of economic and political independence, in addition to livelihood aspects. despite progress in the international agenda to reduce food insecurity in recent decades, food security remains a global concern. a significant number of populations are facing challenges in combating hunger worldwide. in the villages of the central part of zanjan city, the onset of the covid-19 pandemic has not spared these areas from its negative effects. studies show that between 2010 and 2014, a total of 9,841 residents of the villages in the central part of zanjan city were infected with the virus, and 217 people lost their lives. one of the pandemic’s effects is on the food insecurity of these villages. in recent years, due to a low level of facilities, a high risk of floods and earthquakes, poor quality of buildings and construction materials, and a lack of adequate access to nutrients, education, and healthcare, these villages have become more vulnerable to external shocks and exhibit a low level of resilience. in this regard, the present study examines the effects of physical resilience on the food insecurity of these villages.according to the problem statement, the questions of the present study are:what is the level of food insecurity in the villages of the central part of zanjan during the covid-19 pandemic?what is the relationship between physical resilience indicators and the spatial distribution of food insecurity during the covid-19 pandemic among the villages under study? methodologythe present study is applied in terms of type and descriptive-analytical in nature. the statistical population of this study includes all inhabited villages in the central part of zanjan. as of 2021 (1400 in the iranian calendar), the central part of zanjan has 106 inhabited villages. given that the unit of analysis in this study is the village, all villages in the district were analyzed. the methods of data collection in this study include library methods. the independent variable in this study is physical resilience, and the dependent variable is the food insecurity status of the rural settlements under study. nineteen indicators have been used to examine the effects of physical resilience. in this study, to investigate and measure the level of food insecurity in the studied villages, raw data from the urban and rural household income and expenditure survey of the statistical center of iran, which was available by village, were used. physical resilience indices were also calculated from information related to the 2016 farhangabadi census and from the statistics of the relevant organizations. in this study, descriptive statistical methods, including frequency distribution tables, measures of central tendency, and dispersion measures, were used to analyze items and frequencies. the central part of zanjan city is located between the geographical coordinates of 47° 93′ to 48° 92′ east longitudes and 36° 45′ to 36° 93′ north latitudes. results and discussionthe optimized hot spot analysis tool within the geographic information system environment was employed to analyze the outlier clustering related to the physical resilience of the studied villages. positive z-score values of 1.96 and above, which are statistically significant with a confidence level of 90 to 99 percent and are represented in red, indicate high levels of physical resilience that have formed clusters with hot spots in the southeastern part of the region. conversely, negative z-score values of -1.96 and below, which are also statistically significant and shown in blue, have formed cold spots. this interpretation suggests that areas with low resilience are clustered spatially, primarily located in the northwest. studies indicate that, at the level of the villages studied, the villages in the mahm rural district and the villages in the zanjan rud bala rural district exhibit the most clusters related to food insecurity. it can be expected that these villages will demonstrate significant similarities to each other in at least one aspect. assessments reveal that the villages in these two rural districts share characteristics such as diversity of economic activities, percentage of elderly population, percentage of young population, dependency burden, economic participation, amount of rainfed land, amount of irrigated land, mechanization coefficient, and commercialization of agriculture, which have contributed to the formation of a cluster pattern. conclusion                                                                                              the present study investigated the spread of the coronavirus disease and its impact on the population and food security in the rural districts of the central part of zanjan city. the results indicate a significant spread of the disease and its profound effects on the daily lives of the people in this region. the average percentage of individuals infected with the coronavirus in these rural districts is reported to be 27.97 percent, with a mortality rate of 2.49 percent among those infected. these figures not only highlight the high prevalence of the disease but also emphasize the urgent need for attention to health and preventive measures.significant differences in the percentage of cases and deaths have been observed between districts. for instance, qolt and dehstan have the highest percentage of cases, while dahm dehstan has the highest percentage of deaths. these differences may be attributed to various factors, including access to health services, public awareness, and socio-economic conditions. in particular, areas with limited access to health services clearly exhibit a higher likelihood of increased prevalence and mortality. these findings are particularly important for policymakers and public health officials, as they can help identify vulnerable areas and allocate resources more effectively. investing in resilient and sustainable infrastructure has been proposed as a key strategy to improve food security in communities. effective transportation and distribution networks during crises can help provide food to populations, thereby reducing hunger and enhancing food security. implementing these strategies can mitigate the negative impacts of health crises and improve the quality of life at the local level.