موقعیت مکانی و آسیب‌پذیری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در شهرستان زیرکوه

حصول پایداری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در ابعاد مختلف اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی، سیاسی، مستقیم و غیرمستقیم به موقعیت و نحوه استقرار و پراکنش فضایی این سکونتگاه‌ها بستگی دارد. بنابر این در مباحث و برنامه‌های مرتبط با پایداری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی، شناخت دقیق نحوه استقرار و پراکنش فضایی سکونتگاه‌های روستایی از سویی شالوده و مبنا محسوب می‌شود و از سویی دیگر تعیین‌کننده آسیب‌پذیری در برابر مخاطرات و جهت‌دهنده برنامه‌های توسعه پایدار روستایی می‌باشد. با این ضرورت در این پژوهش به بررسی تاثیر موقعیت مکانی بر آسیب‌پذیری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی شهرستان زیرکوه پرداخته شد. تحقیق حاضر به لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش، دارای رویکردی توصیفی- تحلیلی بود. طبق سرشماری عمومی 1395 در شهرستان زیرکوه 84 آبادی بالای 20 خانوار با دهیاری وجود دارد که با تمام شماری بررسی شده است. آسیب‌پذیری روستاها از ابعاد محیطی- فیزیکی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی سنجیده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که روستاهای مورد مطالعه در سطح شهرستان زیرکوه دارای توزیعی پراکنده و غیرمتمرکز است و به لحاظ دوری و نزدیکی به کانون‌های خطرخیزی (گسل، مسیل و غیره) و مراکز مدیریت بحران و زیرساخت‌ها (نقاط شهری، راه‌های مواصلاتی و غیره) که معرف موقعیت مکانی است، تفاوت معناداری بین سکونتگاه‌های روستایی دیده می‌شود. بنا به میزان آسیب‌پذیری نیز روستاها در حد متوسط و رو به زیاد ارزیابی شده است. طبق بررسی‌ها، رابطه معناداری بین موقعیت مکانی با سطح آسیب‌پذیری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در شهرستان زیرکوه مشاهده نشده است. همچنین تفاوت سطح آسیب‌پذیری روستاها نیز چندان معنادار نبوده است. بدین‌سان می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که تاکنون نظام برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت بحران درخصوص سکونتگاه‌های روستایی شهرستان زیرکوه، توجهی به تفاوت‌های مکانی – فضایی از حیث دوری و نزدیکی به کانون‌های خطر نداشته است. به عبارتی، در زمان وقوع مخاطرات احتمالی، انباشت آسیب‌دیدگی و تولید بحران در فضاهای روستایی به سبب عدم برنامه‌ریزی کنونی، دو چندان خواهد بود.

location and vulnerability of rural settlements in zirkouh county

extended abstractintroductionthe vulnerability of rural settlements is increasing due to inadequate infrastructure and existing social-economic inequalities, making them more susceptible to natural hazards. every year, the frequency of natural disasters worldwide leaves countless people homeless. in 2013 alone, over 73,954 people lost their lives due to natural disasters, and more than 2.9 million lost their homes. in iran’s diverse geographical landscape, approximately 68,000 villages are exposed to various natural threats such as floods, earthquakes, and droughts. rural areas, closely tied to their environment and having limited capacity to cope with these hazards, are more vulnerable and have lower resilience compared to urban areas. southern khorasan province is among the most hazard-prone areas in the country, facing threats like floods, earthquakes, droughts, and frost. the zirkouh county, located in northeastern khorasan and characterized by numerous scattered villages, has repeatedly experienced significant damage from these environmental crises. despite the importance of understanding the spatial location of rural settlements and their vulnerability to environmental hazards, there has been no comprehensive research on this topic in the studied area. this understanding is crucial for effective planning and management of environmental crises in vulnerable regions.therefore, the main objective of this paper is to study and analyze the impact of spatial location on the vulnerability of spaces, aiming to aid the planning and crisis management system in identifying the factors involved in assessing the risk levels in rural settlements of zirkouh county. this research seeks to answer the following questions: how do the vulnerability levels of rural settlements in zirkouh county differ from one another? what is the relationship between the spatial location of these rural settlements and their vulnerability levels?                                                                                                                          methodologythis study is applied in its purpose and descriptive-analytical in its nature and method. according to the 2016 census, there are a total of 97 populated villages in the zirkouh county, with 84 settlements having more than 20 households and being recognized as administrative villages. this research was conducted using a comprehensive enumeration method. in each village, a researcher-designed questionnaire was completed with the involvement of available experts and informants, typically comprising the village mayor and members of the islamic council. consequently, a total of 84 questionnaires were collected, usually recording the personal information of the mayor or the individual with the most responsibility or knowledge regarding the village as the respondent. to carry out the research, four variables were utilized based on previous studies: environmental-physical vulnerability, economic vulnerability, social vulnerability, and the spatial location of the villages, along with 81 indicators. to expedite and facilitate the analysis of the collected data, each of the components was coded and subsequently processed using statistical software, namely excel and spss. for the purpose of presenting and analyzing the data, descriptive statistics of the studied indicators were first provided through frequency tables, followed by inferential analysis of the research findings using one-sample t-tests, the binomial test, pearson correlation, spearman rank correlation, and cluster analysis. results and discussionthe main variables in this study are the spatial location of the village, environmental-physical vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and social vulnerability. the variable spatial location of the village is constructed based on the following factors: village typology, distance to the county center, distance to watercourses or rivers, available water resources, distance to major roads, distance to borders, and distance to fault lines. among these factors, village typology and available water resources are qualitative, while the remaining variables are quantitative and non-normally distributed.for the three variables— environmental-physical vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and social vulnerability— 26, 24, and 24 indicators have been defined in the questionnaire, respectively. the average responses to these indicators represent each variable. since each of the indicators has an ordinal scale, the tests related to these indicators will be non-parametric, while the data for the four latent variables— spatial location of the village, environmental-physical vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and social vulnerability— possess a quantitative scale. accordingly, the data concerning these variables follow a normal distribution, allowing for the use of parametric tests in their inferential analysis.the assessment of the studied rural settlements indicates that the environmental-physical and economic vulnerabilities are at a moderate level, while social vulnerability is below average.the ranking of villages in the zirkouh county based on overall vulnerability (a combination of environmental-physical, economic, and social indicators) using cluster analysis demonstrates that most of the vulnerable rural settlements are concentrated in the southern part of zirkouh county, specifically in the zahan and zirkouh sections.results showed that the variable of spatial location has no significant relationship with the dimensions of vulnerability. additionally, the spatial location of the rural settlements, in terms of distance to fault lines, distance to rivers, distance to major roads, distance to borders, distance to the city center, and distance to the provincial center has no significant relationship with vulnerability across various dimensions. furthermore, the average dimensions of vulnerability across different typologies (flat, mountainous, foothill) do not show significant differences.however, the average environmental-physical vulnerability shows significant differences among the various levels of available water resources (such as wells, qanats, springs, and rivers). no significant differences were observed in terms of economic and social vulnerability.notably, the average environmental-physical vulnerability for wells is greater than the average for rivers, the average vulnerability for qanats is greater than for springs, and the average vulnerability for qanats is also greater than that for rivers. conclusionin conclusion, the current crisis management and planning system concerning the rural settlements of zirkouh county has largely neglected the spatial differences related to proximity to hazard zones. consequently, during potential disaster events, the accumulation of damages and the production of crises in rural areas will be exacerbated due to the existing lack of planning. the components of human geographical capacity in zirkouh county currently do not provide a satisfactory level of protection against risk reduction. these components include: limited access for residents to essential facilities, the absence of sociological studies on natural hazards, a lack of education for the rural community in terms of prevention and safety during potential disasters, and inadequate planning for sheltering residents of rural settlements in safer areas during crises. therefore, it is imperative to take actions aimed at improving these aspects to enhance the resilience and safety of the rural population in zirkouh county against potential hazards. addressing these issues will not only help mitigate the impact of disasters but also promote sustainable development in the region.