تحلیل راهبردی مناسبات جغرافیایی و اجتماعی با چالش‌های امنیتی طوایف اعراب در جنوب خوزستان

یکی از ابعاد مهم امنیت حوزه امنیت عمومی، قومیت ها در کشور می‌باشد. این پژوهش با بررسی مخاطرات امنیتی مسائل قومیتی متاثر از قومیت، به تهیه یک چارچوب کلی برای تصمیم‌سازی و اولویت‌بندی راهبردهایی در مدیریت مسائل مربوط به قومیت‌ها در راستای کاهش اثرات قوم‌گرایی افراطی عربی(پان عربیسم) بر امنیت ملی پرداخته است. در این راستا در ابتدا با بررسی و مطالعه منطقه و نظرسنجی از متخصصان حوزه‌های قومیت و امنیت، به شناخت شرایط راهبردی اعراب استان خوزستان در قالب مدل تدوین راهبرد swot پرداخته شده است. جامعه اماری مشتمل بر چهار گروه از نخبه ها، اساتید، مدیران و فرماندهان داخل (18نفر) و بیرون (12نفر) از ناجا بود. با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری هدف مند تا اشباع نظری 30 نفر انتخاب شدند. پس از مصاحبه های مختلف چالش ها ابتدا در چهار محور نقاط ضعف، قوت، تهدید و فرصت دسته بندی شده، سپس هر محور در چهار بعد اجتماعی، سیاسی، اقتصادی و سیاسی تقسیم، انگاه ذیل هر یک از ابعاد چهار گانه مهم ترین نقاط ضعف، قوت، تهدید و فرصت در قالب گویه های قابل پرسش (احصاء شده از مصاحبه با نمونه ها) آورده شده و در انتها با استفاده از مدل سوات و ماتریس برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی کمّی (qspm)، هشت راهبرد تدافعی استخراج و اولویت‌بندی شد. نتایج بدست آمده نشان داد، راهبرد «راهبرد رسیدگی به مشکلات اقوام علی الخصوص قوم عرب در حوزه رفع محرومیت‌ها» به عنوان مهم ترین راهبرد در استان خوزستان به دست امد. تایج بدست آمده نشان داد، راهبرد «راهبرد رسیدگی به مشکلات اقوام علی الخصوص قوم عرب در حوزه رفع محرومیت‌ها» بهعنوان مهم ترین راهبرد در استان خوزستان به دست امد.

a strategic analysis of geographical and social relations with the security challenges of arab tribes in southern khuzestan

extended abstractintroductionmost countries (even the united states and europe) are made up of many ethnic groups. this ethnic diversity can be a source of numerous political, ethnictribal, etc., challenges, as well as provide opportunities for the growth and development of the country and be a source of power. the ethnic and religious components and groups of the iranian nation have a geographicalspatial sequence beyond the political borders of iran, which have economic, social, and cultural interactions with each other. ethnicities, in our country and, of course, in many countries, although they have played an important role in promoting cultural heritage, political and economic growth and development, and defending the territorial integrity of the country against threats, the developments that have taken place internally and externally show that this same ethnic diversity and ethnicity can, in a way, become a factor in the emergence of new threats and challenges. undoubtedly, all the challenges and limitations faced by ethnic groups can be considered a serious obstacle to the formation of national identity and, of course, public order and security. given the concerns and concerns about cultural and ethnic diversity in iranian society and its consequences, this study aims to validate the multidimensional identity of iranians (which itself can be a source of contradiction, conflict, and incompatibility and a source of unity) to examine and analyze the challenges of society’s advancement concerning arabethnic group with emphasis on the swot model, and enumerate strategies of convergence and reduction of divergence among the arabethnic group. methodologythis qualitativeexploratory paper is based on the theory of cohen and minion (1996) and has been done using the swot model. considering that the selection of participants in the qualitative research is made to obtain the most information about the phenomenon under study, therefore in this study, the statistical population of four classes or groups of deputies, heads of departments, and experts of the ministry of intelligence of the islamic republic of iran, elites and professors of political science and political sociology in the region, regionalpolitical officials, leaders of regional thoughts were selected. due to the quality of the research, the sampling method is nonprobability and purposeful (heterogeneous: according to the four statistical populations mentioned above). results and discussionbased on all the calculations and analyzes performed in this study, it can be seen that the fourth strategy, addressing the problems of ethnic groups, especially the arab people in the field of elimination of deprivations and ... (s4), ranked first among other strategies. the strategy of monitoring the performance and activity of gasoline and cng stations and testing the fuel supplied to be free of chemicals and construction activities such as it (s8) has the second rank among other strategies. due to sustainable and comprehensive development in this strategy, its high importance is evident. the strategy of holding interactive meetings with members of the ministry of intelligence of the islamic republic of iran and members of the security council to review strategies to strengthen the relations between the elders and influential tribes and other heads who are scattered, with the government and ... (s5), also has the third rank third among strategies. the information control strategy of the families of the disappeared, the socially dissatisfied and the like (s3) is another essential strategy to achieve public and national security. continuous implementation of spatial and regional cleanup plans at different time intervals in the province, especially in areas contaminated with illegal weapons and other crimes (s6), has the fifth rank among other strategies. strategy for creating centers, campaigns, and virtual media for exchanging knowledge and cultural products, making more use of the capacity of competent and local managers to prevent extremist and extremist currents, etc. (s7) is in the sixth rank of the proposed strategies contract.strategies for coordination and cooperation between the judiciary and the prisons organization as much as possible in dealing appropriately and decisively with thugs and not granting them leave on certain days; implementing plans to fight against thugs and activating resources and informants and taking preventive measures regarding the identification and arrest of thugs (s1), and expanding resources and informants in the meetings held by the parties regarding the holding of upcoming elections and monitoring the activities of candidates in cyberspace (s2); despite their high importance, they are ranked last due to their emphasis on one dimension of security. conclusionaccording to the totality of the analyses performed, it is observed that the proposed strategies are necessary for each other. the above prioritization only determines the temporal priority of the strategies over each other, and is based on the ethnic conditions of the region and beyond. and to achieve public and national security, it is necessary to pay attention to all these strategies and develop an action plan for strategies. by regularizing and implementing the strategies resulting from the above strategic plan, attention to ethnic issues will be such that it is possible to develop the region and space to achieve the goals and vision of development and increase public and national security. keywords: security challenges, arabethnic group, swot model, khuzestan province, ethnic distribution