تحلیل عوامل کلیدی و پیشران های موثر بر ارتقای جایگاه شهر قائن در توسعه منطقه ای

تغییرات سریع نیمه دوم قرن بیستم و ناکارآمدی روش‌های متداول برنامه‌ریزی منجر به ظهور و گسترش آینده‌نگری شد که به‌نوبه خود در رویکرد و روش‌های مورداستفاده برای شناسایی و حل مسئله استفاده شد آینده‌نگاری منطقه‌ای، نوعی از آینده‌نگاری است که با تمرکز بر محدوده سرزمینی خاص، در یک قلمرو جغرافیایی زیر ملی با هدف اتخاذ تصمیمات معین جهت تحقق آینده مطلوب عملیاتی می‌گردد. بر این اساس پیاده‌سازی این رویکرد در چارچوب مفهوم توسعه منطقه‌ای می‌تواند کمک قابل‌توجهی در بروز رسانی ادبیات توسعه در کشور داشته باشد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی عوامل موثر بر توسعه منطقه‌ای قائن بوده است. پژوهش حاضر بر اساس روش تحقیق اکتشافی کاربردی است. داده های مورد نیاز با بهره گیری از اسناد رسمی فرادست شهر قائنات و مصاحبه با متخصصان بدست آمده است. همچنین با استفاده از روش میک مک عوامل کلیدی و پیشران های موثر بر ارتقای جایگاه شهر قائن در توسعه منطقه ای تحلیل شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد عوامل موثر بر توسعه منطقه‌ای به ترتیب شامل عواملی رشد نسبی،gdp، رونق بخشی، سرمایه‌گذاری و سیاست‌ها می‌باشد و بیانگر نقش موثر بر توسعه منطقه ای قائن می باشد که به صورت مستقیم و غیرمستقیم تاثیرگذار بوده اند. لذا با در نظر گرفتن این عوامل کلیدی می توان به توسعه منطقه ای در شهر قائن دست یافت. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد عوامل موثر بر توسعه منطقه‌ای به ترتیب شامل عواملی رشد نسبی،gdp، رونق بخشی، سرمایه‌گذاری و سیاست‌ها می‌باشد و بیانگر نقش موثر بر توسعه منطقه ای قائن می باشد که به صورت مستقیم و غیرمستقیم تاثیرگذار بوده اند.

Analysis of Key Factors and Drivers Affecting the Position of Ghaen City in Regional Development

Extended AbstractIntroductionThe rapid changes of the second half of the twentieth century and the inefficiency of conventional planning methods led to the emergence and expansion of futurism, which in turn was used in the approach and methods used to identify and solve the problem. Regional foresight operates in a subnational geographical area to make certain decisions to achieve the desired future, focusing on a specific territorial area. Accordingly, implementing this approach in the framework of the concept of regional development can significantly help update the country’s development literature. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting regional development in Ghaen. MethodologyThe present research is based on an exploratoryapplied research method. The research process is such that the present research has collected the required data and information libraries in two ways. Articles, theses, dissertations, books, plans, and reports related to the topic have been collected and studied to review and identify the basics, concepts, and variables related to the topic. Also, using MICMAC method, key factors and drivers affecting the promotion of Ghaen city in regional development have been analyzed. Results and DiscussionBased on the Delphi method, 37 variables were identified as factors affecting the regional development of Ghaen city and then analyzed using the interaction or structural effects analysis method by MICMAC software to extract the main factors affecting the future state of the environment. Based on the number of variables, the dimensions of the matrix are 37 x 37. By placing these factors in a matrix, the effect of each of these factors on each other was determined by weighting the factors (from zero to 3). All the factors involved in regional development are considered a system with intertwined elements and as a structure, and the relationships of these factors are measured to extract the most influential factors. The number of repetitions of the interaction of variables is considered twice, and the degree of matrix filling is 97.15% and shows the dispersion of variables affecting the future of Ghaen city. Out of 1330 relations that can be evaluated in this matrix, 39 were zero, 502 were number one, 744 were number two, and 84 were number three. Also, the matrix based on statistical indicators with two times of data rotation has 97% usefulness and optimization, indicating the questionnaire’s high validity and answers. In the following, for a general analysis of the system environment and finally identifying the key effective factors.After identifying the variables, the first step is to form a matrix of pairwise comparisons extracted from Delphi meetings of managers (30 people in total) in which the impact of each variable on other variables is measured. Because the method of distribution and distribution of variables affecting the regional development of Ghaen city in the dispersion plane indicates the system’s instability, three categories of variables (twodimensional variables, regulatory variables, and independent variables) can be identified.Bidirectional variables: Bidirectional variables have a high impact and high affectivity, and any action on these variables will cause a reaction and change on other variables. The location of these variables in the impact plan is in the northeast. Bidirectional variables have a very high capacity to become key variables of the system. The following variables are known as twodimensional variables according to their position in the impactimpact plan: employment structure, production technology, investment security, social participation, method and capacity of agricultural production, skilled manpower, the concentration of activities, Social development relations of the region, production of science, development of universities, GDP, relative economic growth, the pattern of interaction and cooperation with Afghanistan, the geopolitical position of the province, improvement of information technology infrastructure, coordination of organizations, ‌ production, and industrial prosperity, international Yazdan Bazaar, increasing investment in the province and the government’s macro policies.Regulatory variables: Regulatory variables are located around the center of gravity of the chart or plan of influence influence. These variables can be upgraded to effective variables or twoway variables. The following variables are known according to their location in the impact plan the effectiveness of regulatory variables: improving the health network, social injustice in the distribution of municipal services, polluting industries, water resources, the transnational role of the province, improving the main road network, reducing ownership Government, the extent of devolution to the provincial and local levels, energy resources, the development of social networks, the construction of the provincial rail network and drought and natural hazards.Independent variables: Independent variables are located in the southwestern part of the impacteffectiveness plan. The following variables are called independent variables according to their location in the impactimpact plan: ethnicity, biodiversity, urban green space, entry and exit points of the city, hoarding, and stock exchange. ConclusionThe results showed that the factors affecting regional development include relative growth, GDP, prosperity, investment, and policies, respectively, and indicate the influence of Ghaen regional development that has directly and indirectly affected. Therefore, by considering these key factors, regional development can be achieved in the city of Ghaen.