ارزیابی میزان تاب‌آوری بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان در برابر زلزله و ارائه راهبردهای ارتقا آن

تاب‌آوری شهری به جایگاهی از شهر اشاره دارد که به دلیل مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی درست قدرت تحمل خود را در برابر بحران‌های طبیعی و انسانی افزایش داده و با کم‌ترین میزان خسارت مالی و جانی می‌تواند بحرانی را پشت سر گذاشته و در کوتاه‌ترین زمان به حالت طبیعی خود بازگردد. در همین راستا پژوهش حاضر نیز به دنبال ارائه راهبردهای برای ارتقا میزان تاب‌آوری در بافت تاریخی شهر کرمان می‌باشد. روش پژوهش توصیفی –تحلیلی و با استفاده از روش‌های مشاهده‌ای، مصاحبه‌ای و پرسشنامه صورت گرفته جامعه آماری آن تمامی ساکنان بافت تاریخی کرمان می‌باشد که در سرشماری سال1395جمعیتی بالغ‌بر51087 نفر بوده است. برای تخمین حجم نمونه از جدول مورگان استفاده‌شده است، که مطابق این جدول 381 نمونه برآورد شد. این پرسشنامه‌های به‌صورت تصادفی ساده در سطح محدوده پخش گردید. بعد از استخراج اطلاعات موردنظر با استفاده از برنامه spss تجزیه‌وتحلیل گردیدند. وضعیت موجود نشان داد که بافت تاریخی کرمان ازنظر شاخص اجتماعی، اقتصادی، کالبدی، نهادی تاب‌آوری وضعیت نامطلوبی دارد. به همین دلیل ماتریس swot تشکیل‌شده و نقاط قوت، ضعف، فرصت، تهدید بافت تاریخی ازنظر تاب‌آوری در آن تدوین گردید. سپس با استفاده ازنظر متخصصین و کارشناسان مطلع از وضعیت بافت تاریخی کرمان امتیازبندی گردید. و بعد از تجزیه‌وتحلیل‌های مربوط مشخص گردید، که موقعیت استراتژیکی بافت تاریخی کرمان موقعیت استراتژی‌های بازنگری، انطباقی است. ازاین‌رو بعد از تدوین استراتژی‌های مطلوب و مناسب با وضعیت تاب‌آوری بافت تاریخی کرمان ماتریس برنامه‌ریزی کمی (qspm) تشکیل‌شده و در این مرحله نیز با استفاده ازنظر متخصصین استراتژی‌ها اولویت‌بندی شدند. مهم‌ترین استراتژی‌ها در رده اول توجه به توسعه میان افزا برای تسریع درروند نوسازی بافت و مکان‌یابی و ایجاد پایگاه‌های مدیریت بحران در فضاهای خالی بافت‌ برای ‌تسریع‌ در عملیات ‌امداد و نجات ‌در‌ شرایط ‌اضطراری ‌می‌باشد.

The Resilience of Kerman’s Historical Texture against Earthquakes and Strategies to Improve It

Extended Abstract IntroductionThe natural disasters cause shocking results for living organisms and lead to many financial losses and causalities. The natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, storms, and tornadoes often have had devastating effects on human settlements and has caused heavy casualties. Therefore, the resilience has been proposed as an approach to retrofit settlements against natural disasters. The resiliency approach is defined as adaptability and flexibility of local area against changes resulting from accidents to reduce socioeconomic and physicalinfrastructure vulnerability and improve life quality. Kerman is one the cities in Iran which is threaten frequently by about 14 faults (including Zangiabad fault). Some of them may cause strong earthquakes, even stronger than 7 Richter. The central texture of Kerman, about 483 hectares, is physically wornout and could be seriously damaged in the event of an earthquake. However, this study aimed to determine the current situation of resiliency dimensions in Kerman’s historical texture and determine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, and appropriate strategies to improve the resilience of this place against earthquakes.MethodologyThis was descriptiveanalytical applied study. The observation, interview, and questionnaires were used for collecting the data. The population consisted of all residents of historical textures in Kerman (N= 51087, 2015). Using Morgan table, the sample size was determined to be 381. The questionnaires were randomly distributed among residents. After collecting the data, they were analyzed using SPSS software (OwnSample ttest, Feridman Sample, descriptive statistics). Then, the SWOT matrix was created and the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to resiliency of historical texture of Kerman were included. Then, the Delphi broad was formed and they were asked to assign each factor the weights between 0 (least important) and 1 (most important); the snowball technique was used by experts. The experts were asked to introduce other qualified experts from other organizations. At this stage, 20 experts were selected; 5 employees from district municipality who were familiar with historical texture, 10 faculty members in geography and urban planning, urban development, and architecture, and 5 Ph.D. candidate in geography and urban planning and urban development. At next stage, the strategic position of historical texture of Kerman was determined and appropriate strategies were presented. The QSPM was used to prioritize these strategies.Results and DiscussionAfter examining the status quo, it was determined that the status of resiliency dimensions in Kerman’s historical texture is not desirable. In social dimension, from 11 items, 7 items had mean score less than obtained numerical value and were considered as weaknesses. In economic dimension, the situation was even worse and it was indicated that in the case of an event which causes economic damage, it will not be possible to return normal situation. Also, due to loss of trust of people and related institutions, the communications are declined and people have less participation in reconstruction and renovation. Also, the residents believe that the relevant institutions have not accepted their responsibility and did not provide services to people during critical times. Also, the physical dimension of historical texture of Kerman faces severe deficiencies, like most central textures of cities in Iran. These weaknesses and inadequacies have increased the vulnerability of this region to earthquakes and some of them such as lack of suitable infrastructures make the crisis management operations to face problems. After identifying the current situation of historical texture in Kerman, the SWOT matrix was created and the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats were included. After analysis, the sum of score at internal factor matrix was 2.36 and external factor matrix was 2.53. The review or adaptation was determined as strategic position of historical texture in Kerman; these strategies seek to mitigate weaknesses to take advantage of existing opportunities. At final stage, the adaptation strategies were prioritized using QSPM. However, the adaptive strategies for Kerman’s historical texture resilience were as follows:Emphasize on infill development for speeding up the process of historical texture renovation processPositioning and creating crisis management bases in free spaces to accelerate emergency operations in these areas.Trying to rebuild trust between people and urban management organizations as catalyst to increase participation of people in reconstruction of texturesRunning maneuvers and critical situations exercises to prepare residents and institutions and analyze the strengths and weaknesses of crisis management system in historical texture ConclusionThe results of this study showed that the historical context of Kerman in terms of social, economic, physical, institutional indicators of resilience is unfavorable. For this reason, the SWOT matrix was formed and its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to the historical context in terms of resilience were developed. Then, using the opinion of experts aware of the status of the historical context of Kerman, it was scored. The results showed that the strategic position of the historical context of Kerman is the position of the revision strategies is adaptive. Therefore, after formulating the desired strategies with the resilience of the historical context of Kerman, a quantitative planning matrix (QSPM) was formed and at this stage, the strategies were prioritized using the opinion of experts. The most important strategies in the first place are to pay attention to intermediate development to accelerate the process of tissue modernization and location and to establish crisis management bases in empty tissue spaces to accelerate rescue operations during emergencies.