تحلیل راهبردهای توسعه منطقه ای پایدار در استان مازندران

در عصر حاضر که با خصیصه‌های عدم قطعیّت، نوآوری و پیچیدگی مسائل شناخته می‌شود، نظام برنامه‌ریزی سنّتی با چالش‌های متنوّعی مواجه است. یکی از ضعف‌های نظام برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای رایج، عدم شناسایی، تحلیل و به‌کارگیری عوامل کلیدی توسعه منطقه است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش تحلیل استراتژیک ظرفیت‌های توسعه منطقه‌ای استان مازندران بر اساس چارچوب نظری توسعه منطقه‌ای در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیربنایی و مدیریتی، طبیعی، ساختار سکونتگاه و پیوندها است. در این راستا ابتدا با سنجش محیط داخلی و محیط خارجی، فهرستی از نقاط قوت، ضعف، فرصت‌ها و تهدیدهای مطرح در این شش حوزه‌ برای توسعه‌ی استان تهیه، سپس با نظر سنجی از کارشناسان و متخصصان استان مازندران، اقدام به وزن دهی به هر یک از آنها شد. در نهایت با محاسبه و تحلیل آنها، اولویت ها مشخص گردید. براساس نتایج به دست آمده 240 نقطه قوت، ضعف فرصت و تهدید در استان شناسایی شد که در نهایت 40 نقطه به عنوان عوامل اصلی توسعه در استان مازندران انتخاب شدند. بدین ترتیب تولید ناخالص ملی با وزن 0/36 مهمترین نقطه قوت منطقه و عدم تعادل اکولوژیک در تمامی گستره ی استان با وزن 0/46 مهمترین نقطه ضعف استان می‌باشد. همچنین ایجاد رسانه‌های جمعی مناسب در سطح ملی و منطقه ای با وزن0/32 مهم‌ترین نقطه فرصت و ضعف حمل و نقل و ارتباط ضعیف پیوند فراملی هر کدام با وزن 0/36 مهم‌ترین تهدید منطقه محسوب می‌شوند.

Analysis of regional development strategies Stable in Mazandaran province

Extended Abstract IntroductionIn the present age, which is characterized by the characteristics of uncertainty, innovation and complexity of issues, the traditional planning system faces various challenges. One of the weaknesses of the common regional planning system is the lack of identification, analysis and application of key factors in regional development. The current problems have arisen from the lack of knowledge of the future, which is now called the present”. Man has always been fascinated by discovering the future and deciphering it based on inner tension. The questions are, How is the future predictable? And Will the future be a continuation of the present and the past has been a major intellectual challenge for planners and managers so far.. The future will be achieved, but now this issue is not easily possible (Sanai et al., 2016: 36). During this period, planners in accordance with the temporal and spatial conditions, have used different approaches to deal with future issues, which are mainly based on the analysis of past trends and the continuation of the current situation. The topic of the future and its longterm knowledge is of great importance in urban and regional planning. Lack of future intelligent knowledge of planning tools and how to use them in the planning process is affected The main purpose of this study is strategic analysis of regional development capacities of Mazandaran province based on the theoretical framework of regional development in economic, social, infrastructure and managerial dimensions, natural, settlement structure and links.  Methodology  In this regard, first by measuring the internal and external environment, a list of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in these six areas for the development of the province, then by surveying experts and specialists in Mazandaran province, weigh each It became one of them. Finally, by calculating and analyzing them, the priorities were determined.  Results and discussionA total of 240 strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats were identified in the province, and finally 40 points were selected as the main factors of development in Mazandaran province. In the field of economics, activities with competitive advantage and high potential of handicraft sales and the existence of neighborhood opportunities and trade exchanges to create employment are the most important points of the province’s development opportunity and intermediary institutions depend on imports from other regions and the province is bordered by the sea border They are considered as a threat to the province. In the social field, the desire for progress and educated manpower and the appropriate population composition are the most important strengths of the province’s development and migration and low indicators of human development and evacuation of villages are the most important weaknesses of development. The existence of a spirit of solidarity and planning of development needs are the most important points of development opportunity of the province and the lack of expansion of social services and reduction of social interactions are the most important points of threat in the province. In the field of housing, according to experts, the reduction of the first urban phenomenon is the most important strength of the province and the unsuitable structure of villages and the lack of central location of many cities are the most important weaknesses of residential development and the possibility of forming separate functional areas in the province. Uninhabited villages are the most important threat to the development of the province.In the field of infrastructure and management, improving the quality of the province’s roads in the east and west and equipping the network of roads within the region and local to achieve some economic and social goals, the most important strengths of the province and the weakness of telecommunications infrastructure and services and weakness of transmission and distribution networks Electricity and lack of commercial and customs facilities and services are the most important weaknesses of the province’s development. Also, the existence of port cities as the hubs of trade, transportation and maritime transit is the most important point of development opportunity of the province and lack of proper infrastructure is the most important threat point of the province. The strength of the province’s development and the occurrence of floods are the most important points of the province’s development weakness and the review of surface water resources management is the most important point of opportunity and increase the consequences of natural disasters.ConclusionThe objectives of this study are to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the province to determine strategies for development. The main issue of this research is that the contemporary world is an arena of dramatic changes and accelerating dynamics. The changes are so sudden and electrifying that the slightest negligence can come at the cost of a strategic surprise in all areas of politics, economics, society, and even culture. In this environment full of change and instability and full of uncertainties, the only approach and weakness that is likely to be more successful is to strive for the architecture of the future. Although this effort has always been fraught with risk, accepting this risk is far wiser than watching future developments. Hence, planners seek to identify development strategies and create the future with the aim of planning for it by basing the intellectual foundations of planning on the future research paradigm. Based on the obtained results, based on the importance of a set of effective internal and external factors, the first priority is with aggressive strategies, which indicates the existence of strengths, opportunities and development capabilities in this province.