طراحی الگوی انتخاباتی دربهبود عملکرد مدیریت دولت محلی

ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮ ﮔﺎز ﻣﺘﺎن در ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﺎرش ﻓﺼﻠﯽ اﯾﺮان ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪف ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ آﻣﺎری ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻫﺎ، داده ﻫﺎی ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﺑﺎرش 34 اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ از ﺳﺎل 1984 ﺗﺎ 2012 از ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر اﺧﺬ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ آﻣﺎر و اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﮔﺎز ﻣﺘﺎن (ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺑﯿﻠﯿﻮن در ﻗﺴﻤﺖ) ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ، از ﺳﺎﯾﺖ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن noaa درﯾﺎﻓﺖ ﺷﺪ. اﺑﺘﺪا ارﺗﺒﺎط اﯾﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺑﺎ روش ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﭘﯿﺮﺳﻮن ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪه و ﺳﭙﺲ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺑﺎرش ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت ﻣﻮرد ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ، ﺑﺎرش ﻫﺎی ﺑﻬﺎره در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎی ﺷﻤﺎﻟﯽ و ﺷﻤﺎل ﻏﺮﺑﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺎ رﺷﺪی 13 ﻣﯿﻠﻤﺘﺮی؛ و ﺑﺎرش اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎی ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 46 درﺻﺪی ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت روﺑﺮو ﺑﻮده اﻧﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﻘﺪار ﮔﺎزﻫﺎی ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪ ای، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ داده ﻫﺎ در ﻓﺼﻞ ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎن ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 30 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻤﺘﺮی ﺑﺎرش اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎی ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ اﯾﺮان ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ؛ وﻟﯽ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﮑﺲ ﺑﺎرش در اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎی ﻏﺮﺑﯽ و ﺷﻤﺎﻟﯽ، رﺷﺪی 14 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻤﺘﺮی داﺷﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ، ﺑﺎرش ﭘﺎﯾﯿﺰه ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ارﺗﺒﺎط را ﺑﺎ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ؛ در اﯾﻦ ﻓﺼﻞ، ﺑﺎرش اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎی ﻏﺮﺑﯽ ﺣﺪود 24 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻤﺘﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ، اﻣﺎ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎی ﺟﻨﻮب ﻏﺮﺑﯽ و ﺳﭙﺲ ﺟﻨﻮب ﺷﺮﻗﯽ رﺷﺪی 17 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻤﺘﺮی را ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﮐﺮده اﻧﺪ. در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺑﺎرش زﻣﺴﺘﺎﻧﻪ اﯾﺮان ﺣﮑﺎﯾﺖ از ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 18/6 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻤﺘﺮی در اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎی ﻏﺮب و ﺷﻤﺎل ﻏﺮﺑﯽ داﺷﺘﻨﺪ.

Designing an electoral model to improve the performance of local government management

In this article, in order to present a new model in local elections, the suggestions of electoral models have been used and the city of Tehran has been selected as the study. The source of data collection was indepth interviews with experts and analysis of laws and regulations in this field, and the data were analyzed using the content analysis method. The present study with an applieddevelopmental approach and based on the field method to the question How effective are the fundamental reforms in the council and municipal elections in the performance of local institutions? Has answered. The research results show that, according to the experience of developed and successful countries in urban development and local affairs management, development steps should be taken from part to whole with experimentation and experience. In general, electoral reforms are very important in the performance of local government and increase the role of local citizens in appointing managers and commenting on the way local government is run.