تحلیل سیستمی اثرات تحولات تقسیمات سیاسی بر پراکنده رویی شهری (نمونه مطالعاتی: شهر قم)

در ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﭘﺮﻓﺮازوﻧﺸﯿﺐ اﯾﺮان، ﺣﮑﻮﻣﺖ و دوﻟﺖ، ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ، ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﻘﺶ را در ﺗﺤﻮﻻت و دﮔﺮﮔﻮﻧﯽ ﺳﺎﺧﺖوﺳﺎزﻫﺎی ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ازﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ داﺷﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. اﯾﻦ دﮔﺮﮔﻮﻧﯽﻫﺎ در ﻧﻘﺶﭘﺬﯾﺮی ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ و اﯾﻔﺎی ﻧﻘﺶ دوﻟﺖ زﻣﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎز و ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ، ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ و ﺷﻬﺮﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﺛﺮات ﺗﺤﻮﻻت ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻤﺎت ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺪه روﯾﯽ ﺷﻬﺮی در ﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﻢ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎری ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. روش ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ-ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ و روش ﺟﻤﻊآوری اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪای و ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﺑﺰار ﮔﺮدآوری دادهﻫﺎ، ﭘﺮﺳﺶﻧﺎﻣﻪ و ﺧﺒﺮه ﺳﻨﺠﯽ اﺳﺖ. رواﯾﯽ ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از رواﯾﯽ ﻇﺎﻫﺮی و ﻧﻈﺮﺳﻨﺠﯽ از ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن و ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﺗﺎﺋﯿﺪ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮای ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪوﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت از ﻣﺪل آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﯽ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎری اﺳﺘﻔﺎدهﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮای اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﻌﺪاد 29 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اوﻟﯿﻪ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﻈﺮ ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن و ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﯿﻦ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ از ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار mic mac ﺑﺮای ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪوﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و رﺗﺒﻪﺑﻨﺪی ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎی ﻣﻮرداﺳﺘﻔﺎده در ﻣﺪل ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎری و از ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار gis ﺑﺮای ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﻧﻘﺸﻪﻫﺎ و ﻻﯾﻪﻫﺎی اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﻮردﻧﻈﺮ اﺳﺘﻔﺎدهﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن دادﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ارﺗﻘﺎء ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﯾﮏ ﺷﻬﺮ در ﺳﻄﻮح ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻤﺎت ﮐﺸﻮری ﺑﻪوﯾﮋه ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﮐﺰ اﺳﺘﺎن، ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﭼﻬﺎر ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ زﻣﯿﻦ و ﺑﻮرسﺑﺎزی آن، ﮔﺴﺘﺮده ﺷﺪن ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر دوﻟﺖ و ﻟﺰوم ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺎت ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪای، ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺪه روﯾﯽ ﺷﻬﺮی را اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺳﻪ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎ در ﺷﻬﺮ، ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮ ﺷﺪن ﻧﻤﺎﯾﻨﺪﮔﺎن ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ دوﻟﺖ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ در ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﺮﮐﺰ ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ و اﺛﺮﮔﺬارﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺪه روﯾﯽ ﺷﻬﺮی در ﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﻢ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪﻧﺪ.

Systems analysis of the effects of political divisions on urban sprawl (Study sample: Qom)

Abstract In the history of Iran’s proliferation, the government, as the most important political agents, have consistently played the most effective role in the transformation of spatial structures, including cities. These changes in the role of cities and the role played by the government set the stage for strengthening the city’s economy, the development and expansion of cities and urbanization. The purpose of this research is to investigate and analyze the most important effects of political divisions on urban Sprawl in Qom using structural analysis model. The research method is descriptiveanalytical and the method of collecting library and field information. Data gathering tool is a questionnaire and a checklist. Validity of the questionnaire was confirmed using expert opinion. Structural analysis of futures research model is used to analyze the information. For this purpose, 29 factors were identified as the primary factors according to experts. Finally, the MIC MAC software was used to analyze and rank the indicators used in the structural analysis model and the GIS software to draw maps and layers of information. The results showed that improving the status of a city in the levels of country division, especially the transformation of the city into the provincial capital, can be achieved through four factors of population growth and migration, rising land prices and its stock exchange, the expansion of the state structure and the need for regional services, urban Sprawl overnight. Also based on the results of three factors, the concentration of capital in the city, the establishment of political representatives of the government and the development of industries in the city center were selected as the most important and effective political factors affecting the urban Sprawl in Qom.