استراتژی احیای گردشگری شهری برای دوران پس از همه گیری ویروس کرونا (کووید 19) مبتنی بر رویکرد مدلسازی مکانی (مطالعه موردی: کلانشهر تبریز)

همه گیری ویروس کرونا در دو سال اخیر گردشگری شهری در کلانشهر تبریز را به شدت تحت تاثیر قرار داده است. این مقاله با هدف احیاء و توسعه گردشگری شهری با رویکرد مکانی برای دوران پس از همه گیری مورد بحث قرار گرفته است. به همین منظور در این مطالعه معیارهای مکانی اجتماعی، محیطی، کالبدی و هواشناسی به عنوان شاخص های موثر و پیشران بر گردشگری شهری جمع آوری، و در یک چارچوب مدلسازی نوین به عنوان ورودی مدل های ترکیبی fuzzy wlc و fuzzy owa مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. همچنین به منظور درک ارتباط میان همه گیری و گردشگری شهری از مدلسازی مکانی خطر کرونا نیز استفاده شده است. نتایج همبستگی پیرسون میان عوامل نشان دهنده تاثیر مستقل هر کدام از آنها و همبستگی منطقی بود. نتایج نشان داد که عوامل تراکم شهروندان مجرد (0.154)، تراکم جمعیت (0.153)، تراکم شهروندان متاهل (0.151) و تراکم شاغلین (0.135) به ترتیب دارای بالاترین اهمیت بر توسعه گردشگری شهری بودند. به علاوه نقشه های مکانی گردشگری شهری ایجاد شده توسط دو مدل ترکیبیfuzzy wlc و fuzzy owa نیز حاکی از پتانسیل بالای گردشگری در مناطق 2،3،6 و 7 هستند. یافته های این پژوهش مدیریت گردشگری را در راستای توسعه ی آن گسترش می دهد و مشاوره های ارزشمندی را برای مدیران و سرمایه گذاران به منظورشناسایی و توسعه پتانسیل های گردشگری شهری ارائه می دهد.

urban tourism revitalization strategy for the post corona virus (covid 19) era based on spatial modeling approach

introductioninterest in urban tourism since the early 1980s has greatly changed the trend and methods of tourism (cianga popescu, 2013: 34). thus, achieving sustainable urban development has always been one of the most important concerns of urban planners. cities, as a collection of components, spaces, cycles and governing laws, regardless of their current relationships, as the most attractive tourist places, can provide various manifestations of beauty, services and peace for local residents and visitors. therefore, achieving sustainable urban development has always been one of the most important concerns of urban planners. therefore, one of the most effective processes of sustainable urban development is tourism, which can become the most important economic poles of cities. however, in the last two years, the corona virus epidemic has directly affected cities and its developments. the present study evaluates the tourism potential of tabriz metropolis for the development of this industry with a branding approach for the post epidemic period of covid 19 with a macro and comprehensive management perspective based on spatial information system, reference location factors and spatial analysis.data and methodthe research process is based on data, gis and hybrid modelling approach. first, 18 social, environmental, meteorological and physical factors affecting the potential of urban tourism were selected and the data became a place from a non spatial dimension. data localization process was done in arcgis 10.5 software and 18 raster factors were produced. after that, pearson’s correlation was used to ensure the absence of a linear relationship between the factors and the independent effect of each of them. then, based on the impact of each of the factors, their standardization was done using the increasing and decreasing method in a binary way.results and discussionin the present study, all linear correlations are less than 0.7 and all factors will have a unique impact on the modelling output. also, the density factors of single citizens (0.154), population density (0.153), density of married citizens (0.151) and density of employees (0.135) are of the highest importance and are key factors affecting the development of urban tourism, respectively. although social factors have a higher impact, all factors have weights higher than 0 and a significant impact. the output maps of the two models used in this study indicate the high potential of tourism in areas 2, 3, 6 and 7.conclusionhigh risk areas with high impact of the epidemic have a higher potential for tourism. using the branding approach, an exciting and attractive atmosphere can be created to attract domestic and foreign tourists.