تحلیل تغییرات کانون‌های گردوغبار داخلی ایران در بیست سال اخیر

در کشور ایران با توجه به شرایط بیابانی همواره وجود کانون‌های گردوغبار موجب آلودگی هوا و کاهش کیفیت زندگی ساکنین در مجاور این کانون‌ها شده است. در سال‌های اخیر در خصوص برخی از کانون‌ها ابهاماتی در خصوص افزایش شدت تولید گردوغبار به وجود آمده است. در این پژوهش با استفاده از محصول عمق اپتیکی سنجنده modis که غلظت گردوغبار معلق در اتمسفر را نشان می‌دهد و براساس فراوانی و میانگین‌های سالانه، موقعیت کانون‌های گردوغبار در داخل کشور شناسایی شد و سپس روند تغییرات زمانی هر یک از کانو‌ن‌ها به تفکیک مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.براساس نتایج به دست آمده از میانگین فراوانی‌های سالانه گردوغبار در سه دوره مطالعاتی 20002006، 20072012 و 20132018 در سطح کشور ایران حدود 33 کانون گردوغبار شناسایی شد که با در نظر گرفتن کانون‌های مجاور هم روند تغییرات 24 کانون مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. براساس نتایج حدود نیمی از مساحت مناطق بدون گردوغبار به مناطق دارای گردوغبار با فراوانی‌های مختلف و همچنین حدود نیمی از مساحت کانون‌های با فراوانی خیلی زیاد نیز به سایر کانون‌های با شدت کمتر تبدیل شده‌اند. همچنین بیشترین نوسانات در شدت گردوغبار در منطقه سیستان، جازموریان، جنوب شرق سمنان، آذربایجان شرقی، زنجان و استان خوزستان صورت گرفته است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد علی رغم وضعیت اقلیمی نسبتا یکسان، روند تغییرات در این کانون‌ها از الگوی مشابهی تبعیت نمی‌کند و روند تغییرات غبارخیزی در کانو‌های داخلی کشور تحت تاثیر عوامل پیچیده انسانی و غیر انسانی متغیر میباشد. با استفاده از نتایج این تحقیق این امکان فراهم می‌گردد اطلاعات نسبتا جامعی از روند تغییرات کانون‌های داخلی فراهم آید و وضعیت غبارخیزی کانون‌ها در آینده قابل پیش‌بینی گردد.

Analysis of changes in Iran’s Dust hotspots in the last twenty years

IntroductionAtmospheric mineral dust particles play a key role in the radiation budget of the atmosphere and the hydrological cycle, and have an important effect on public health by disrupting climate systems and air pollution. Due to Iran’s location in the arid and semiarid belt of the world, Iran is constantly exposed to local and regional dust systems. Considering the importance of the negative effects of dust storms and their increasing trend in some dust sources, the study of these changes in the last two decades show the importance of the dust storms in recent years. Moreover, spatialtemporal identification and analysis of the properties of these dust particles is very important in order to manage this crisis and prevent the harmful effects of dust particles. In Iran, due to desert conditions, the presence of dust hotspots has always caused air pollution and reduced the quality of life of people. In recent years, some dust hotspots have been ambiguous about increasing the intensity of dust emission. In this study, using the AOD product of MODIS, which compute the dust intensity, and based on the annual frequency and averages of dusty days, the location of dust hotspots were identified and then the trend of dust intensity in each hotspots were examine. The results showed that despite the relatively similar climate, the trend of changes in these dust hotspots does not follow the same pattern and complex human activities and natural changes.Data and Method In this study AOD product from MODIS with the resolution of 10 km was used to extract dust information then the frequencies of days with AOD greater than 0.6 per year were extracted. In addition to correctly calculating the average of AODs, calculating the number of days without data is also important in the results. The spatial and temporal distribution of the study period, were identified in three periods, 20002006, 20072012 and 20132018. The percentage of changes in each of the dust sources compared in different periods. The standard deviation was extracted to identify the areas most vulnerable to dust storms. Finally, to detect the quantitative distribution, the trend of AOD changes in the extracted dust hotspots was used to investigate the changes in the dust intensity trends.Results and DiscussionThe map of dust hotspots in the first period shows the main dust sources are in the north of Sistan and Baluchestan (Zabol) and south of Sistan and Baluchestan (Chahbahar), in the southeast of Semnan (Dasht Kavir), Damghan, Garmsar, Jazmourian, southwest of Hormozgan, (Bandar Lengeh area), south and southwest of Khuzestan, southwest of Yazd (Nayer), as well as parts of Qom, Ilam (Mehran), Isfahan, and south of Fars provinces. In the second period of study, many dust centers have become more intense and extensive. According to the map of dust centers in the third period of studies, compared to the first and second periods, the area of dust centers has decreased.According to the results, about half of the areas without emission has been turned into areas with dust with different frequencies in second period, and also about half of the area of ​​very highfrequency hotspots has been turned into other dust sources with less intensity in the third period. Also, the most fluctuations in dust intensity have occurred in Sistan, Jazmorian, southeast of Semnan, East Azerbaijan, Zanjan and Khuzestan provinces. The results of trend analysis of dust intensity in different dust hotspots show that despite the relatively uniform climate, the dust sources trends in different dust sources do not follow the same pattern.ConclusionDue to the geographical location of Iran and the existence of vast deserts, the wethear has always affected by dust sources of inside and outside of the country. In this study, using satellite data with appropriate resolution, the location of dust sources in three time periods were extracted. The changes of each dust intensity class in the second and third periods were compared with the first period so that regardless of location, changes in dust intensity can be evaluated in general. Then, using the standard deviation method, the dust hotspots with the highest percentage of changes were identified. Finally, the trend of changes was calculated by examining the trends of changes in 24 main dust centers. According to the results of the present study, many changes have been observed in some dust sources and the intensity of dust in many dust sources has decreased. While some sources such as Isfahan, and Khuzestan province due to the role of human factors such as agricultural activities as well as the reduction of surface and ground water and as a result of drought and changes in soil texture have an increasing in trend of dust intensity. Since a decreasing trend is observed in most of dust sources, eastern and southern parts of Iran, the results of this study indicate the key role of climatic factors in changes and fluctuations in dust emission in Iran. Because climatic factor can be the only factor which has a relatively uniform effect on the dust emission on a large scale of Iran.