بررسی عوامل موثر بر سازگاری و نیت کشاورزان در مقابل تغییرات اقلیمی در شهرستان مرودشت: تلفیق نظریه‏ های انگیزش حفاظت و ارزش‏های فرهنگی

این مطالعه تلاش نمود تا با بهره‌گیری از دو نظریه‏ی انگیزش حفاظت و ارزش‏های فرهنگی به تحلیل عوامل موثر بر سازگاری و نیت کشاورزان نسبت به تغییرات اقلیمی در میان کشاورزان پرداخته است. جامعه ی آماری این مطالعه، کشاورزان از استان فارس، شهرستان مرودشت بودند که از میان آن‌ها نمونه‏ای به حجم 256 نفر با استفاده از روش نمونه‏ گیری تصادفی انتخاب شد. داده‏های مورد نیاز با استفاده از پرسشنامه‏ای محقق‏ساخت جمع‏آوری گردید. روایی پرسشنامه با استفاده از نظر متخصصان موضوعی و پایایی آن به کمک یک مطالعه‏ی پیش‏آهنگ و محاسبه‏ی ضریب آلفای کرونباخ (0.70– 0.83) تایید شد. داده‏ها با استفاده از نرم‏افزارهای spss و amos تجزیه و تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل مفهومی این مطالعه برازش بسیار خوبی با داده‏ها داشت و علاوه بر این مقادیر شاخصهای پایایی مرکب، واریانس استخراجی، حداکثر واریانس مشتر و متوسط واریانس مشترک روایی همگرا و واگرای متغیرهای مورد مطالعه را تایید کردند. با توجه به یافته‌های مطالعه ارزش فرهنگی مساوات‌طلبی اثری مستقیم مثبت و معنی‏دار و همچنین ارزش فرهنگی تقدیرگرایی اثری مستقیم منفی و معنی‌داری بر باور به تغییرات دارند. نتایج همچنین نشان داد که از میان متغیرهای نظریه‏ی ارزش‏های فرهنگی، تقدیرگرایی، فردگرایی و مساوات طلبی و همچنین از میان متغیرهای نظریه‏ ی انگیزش حفاظت، ناسازگاری، ارزیابی سازگاری، ادراک ریسک و باور به تغییرات اقلیمی بر نیت سازگاری در مقابل تغییرات اقلیمی تاثیرگذار بودند. در مجموع چارچوب نظری مطالعه توانست 48 درصد از تغییرات واریانس نیت سازگاری کشاورزان در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی را تبیین نماید.

Investigating the affecting factors on farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change in Marvdasht Township: The combination of Protection Motivation and Cultural theories

IntroductionClimate change is one of the main environmental challenges facing the world today and the results of studies and forecasts indicate that it is ever expanding. These changes, in addition to the environment, directly and indirectly affect the social, cultural and economic sectors of the countries of the world. In recent years due to observing evidences of climate change in hydrological variables, concerns have been arisen regarding variations of renewable water resources under climate change in developing countries. Among various types of economic sectors, agriculture is one of the most sensitive economic sectors in terms of climate change phenomena such as temperature rise and evapotranspiration, decreasing precipitation and melting, reducing surface and underground water resources, and etc. Therefore, the effects of climate change on agriculture have become one of the hottest academic topics around the world. In this regards, farmers are always considered as the most vulnerable groups against global climate change, and the vulnerability of them to the region and even beyond them can be examined. Therefore, this study, with a sociological approach, attempted to identify factors affecting the intention of farmers to adapt to climate change. In this regard, due to the role of traditional beliefs in the management of agricultural affairs in rural communities of Iran, a conceptual framework was designed combining two theories PMT and cultural values.MethodologyA survey was conducted to address the main goal of the present study from July 2018 through February 2019 in Marvdasht Township. The farmers of Marvdasht Township considered as the statistical population of this study, which among them 256 farmers selected based on Cochran formula as the statistical sample using simple random sampling method. The research’s instrument was a researchermade questionnaire which its reliability was confirmed by using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the main scales of the questionnaire (α = 0.70 to 0.83) and also, its validity was confirmed by a panel of experts (faculty members of rural developments, agricultural extension, agroecology and agroclimate specialists) prior to the launch of the study. Data analysis was carried out using SPSS (V20) and AMOS (V20) software.Results and discussionThe results showed that proposed theoretical framework of this study has a good fit with data and has the predication potential of famers’ adaptation intention towards climatechange. According to the literature review in can be understand that combination of two both theories (protection motivation theory and cultural theory), is suitable for investigating the underlying factors influencing farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change. For example, Hemayatkhah and Ghorbani (2016), explained 28 of the farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change using the cultural values theory. Also, Azadi et al., (2014) showed that the protection motivation theory can predict 34% of the farmers’ adaptation behavior in confronting climate change. Therefore, it is suggested that in the future studies, the conceptual model of this study should be used to assess farmers’ adaptation intentions towards climate change. The results revealed that egalitarianism has a positive influence on farmers’ belief in climate change. Although fatalism has a negative effect on farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change. This illustrates the contradiction between these two groups of people as well as the accountability of egalitarianism people and the lack of accountability of fatalism people to climate change. The results also, showed that individualism have a negative impact on subjective norms of farmers towards climate change. The results indicated that, adaptation intention of farmers towards climate change is affected by belief in climate change and the adaptation assessment positively, whilst maladaptation to climate change has a negative effect on farmers’ adaptation intention. Moreover, belief in climate change has a positive impact on farmers’ maladaptation to climate change. In this regard, it could be argued that, farmers who have personal experience of the negative consequences of climate changerelated events, such as drought, or have seen farms that have been affected by climate change phenomena with severe product cuts, will try to prevent the occurrence of these incidents for themselves by applying adaptive practices.ConclusionThere is a consensus that awareness of farmers’ intentions against climate change in order to understand the factors affecting their intention to adapt to environmental threats, such as climate change, in government policies and programs. In other words, recognizing the intentions of farmers as a management element can help planners of various executive sectors, especially the agricultural sector in a sustainable management. Iran experienced an extensive climate change and drawdown trend of the water level in recent years which poses negative impacts on the environment and agriculture. In this way, understanding the farmers’ adaptation intention to climate change can help to generate suitable policy solutions. Based on the results, belief in climate change has the most positive effect on the farmers’ adaptation intention towards climate change. In fact, information is crucial in shaping farmers’ perception of climate change risk and the effectiveness of adaptive measures. Incorrect information may lead to maladaptation which, in turn, influences the adaptation intention and behavioral response. As such, agricultural extension services are important in supporting farmers with technical knowledge of adaptive measures. Also, according to the results, it is important use of farmland visits, training courses on climate change threats, how to adapt to this challenge, and farm management. The lack of timely adaptation in agriculture may hamper prosperous farm developments by neglecting risks and opportunities emerging from climate change. It is also suggested that agricultural extension agents, using cultural values of farmers try to better understand the relationship between farmers and the environment and use it in their work plans. Because each of the groups has separate and unique needs and perhaps their educational and extensional methods are also very different.